Member Info for CLSKBull

As long as there is at least one miner running it can exist - and there are currently millions.

The issue for bitcoin miners is there are too many miners competing and the number just keeps increasing. It is a race to the bottom and requires continual re-investment. If you had a competitive advantage then potentially you could self fund the growth - but I don't think any of the publicly listed miners are self funding growth - they take finance or dilute with the promise of greater revenues. The mining machines have a shelf life of

Thanks Chaebol, I'm just thinking of the next move after Mara to rotate into after/if mara runs to double up returns - as often the big players run first followed by catchup from the mid level miners - but it's not always reliable.

I suspect you're right that there'll be a lot of runs and drops so that might be a better place to focus attention and really I should do some additional homework on what happens after the big players rise hard.

Hi SS - live and learn right! Yes I think there is some evidence that the bitcoin etfs have taken away demand from gold/silver etfs. There's a chart on here:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-etfs-test-investor-commitment-gold-backed-paper-2024-02-22/

Glad you're also following DH, not many do, although I guess it's probably for the best that not everyone does otherwise it wouldn't be contrarian. Whether the etf's impact his gold/silver targets I don't know - I would think they would to some degree, but the market has yet to start properly moving so it's all to play for.

Yes that guy is good, and shows the state of the bitcoin mining industry which is really just a house of cards.

I don't think any of the big name miners are very good, they just suck up money and use it inefficiently. The only two ways you can get a real competitive advantage in bitcoin mining is to a) have some sort of tech breakthrough and have very efficient machines, or b) have low power costs.

a) they are all buying off the shelf - so none of the public miners has this.

b) Riot has a great deal, but has still managed to screw it up.

However the market is still valuing the big players in the billions. Although to be fair it's not just bitcoin miners that are overvalued - let's just enjoy it while it lasts.

Chaebol, nothing in particular, I've done a quick scan and have these as a shortlist for further review. Some may well be duds, I've only done a shallow scan - if there are any duds in this lot let me know:

BITF BITFARMS

BTBT BIT DIGITAL

BTDR BITDEER TECHNOLOGIES

CIFR CIPHER MINING

HIVE HIVE DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES

IREN IRIS ENERGY

WULF TERAWULF

Yes alt's will definitely out-perform miners and BTC if you can pick the right ones of which there will be many - Wizz on twitter is good at picking them - to me it's a lucky dip and I can't put them in my SIPP/ISA so I'll leave them. KAS looks good on a surface scan though.

Yeah I was new to investing and got caught up in the hype and greed. Learned a lot in the past few years and tentatively think ath is achievable for my portfolio, if I can 3x from here. Yes they'll all crash when BTC crashes.

Haha yes, that many multiples and still holding was madness. Sometimes wonder what price it would have had to got to before I sold. This time round I'll probably sell too early and watch it carry on.

I'm still on the Dave Hunter train, which at this point still looks to be happening, which would involve a general market crash in H2 most likely which would be worse than the credit crunch. So I'm looking to close up in the coming months depending on what happens.

However first, mara results. What are your thoughts on recycling some into wulf if mara runs? Or do you have others in mind?

Dag, pi and bowlers are definitely not the same person.

Chaebol called Argo 100% right and did have the whole board against him. I think he could have handled things differently, then perhaps his valid viewpoints would have been received better, but then we all could have, it was strange times, and doesn't help when things get heated. The time to sell Argo was on the pluto raise in the context if PW and board members selling just before the raise. That is dodgy af in hindsight. I was inexperienced and in love with the company so missed this very clear signal.

You are right not to fall in love with a company, it clouds judgement. If you look at the miners closely they all have skeletons.

Ok they made a massive loss in 2022 which clears any tax fears.

One outstanding concern I have is the impact of the profit on taxes. I think mstr will do something else otherwise they'll get a massive tax bill. Hopefully mara has enough losses stacked up to make this a non issue.

I've closed all my clsk and moved it all into mara for this.

Block (SQ) has done the same:

"As of December 31, 2023, we held approximately 8,038 bitcoins for investment purposes ("bitcoin investment") with a fair value of $339.9 million based on observable market prices, which is included within “Other non-current assets” on the consolidated balance sheets. We believe cryptocurrency is an instrument of economic empowerment that aligns with our corporate purpose. We expect to hold these investments for the long term but will continue to reassess our bitcoin investment relative to our balance sheet. Bitcoin is considered an indefinite-lived intangible asset, and upon adoption of Accounting Standards Update No. 2023-08, Accounting for and Disclosure of Crypto Assets, effective January 1, 2023, our bitcoin investment is remeasured at fair value at each reporting date with changes recognized in net income through “Other expense (income), net” in the consolidated statements of operations. We did not purchase or sell any of our bitcoin investment during the year ended December 31, 2023. We recognized a gain of $207.1 from the remeasurement of our bitcoin investment during the fourth quarter of 2023."

Go back to the start of the thread Chuz - Riot just did it, so I believe they can - whether they do or not is the gamble. Why wouldn't you though?

Chaebol, for the record, Mara is still stupid lol. Will look for the results gains and sell before the monthly update. Let's hope it plays out. However if they did achieve $2 EPS, it would make their current price look silly, and make the sector look much more attractive. Fingers crossed.

Definitely a game of chicken, but we've no idea how far away the train is.

I estimate Mara could potentially report a circa 400 mil profit for the year if they do this (guesstimate). Accounting games to some degree, but who cares. Mr Market is one crazy guy. Agree CLSK is probably a bit over fair value - but sometimes the market just loves a company - which is hard to understand as it was so unloved for so so long. Riot definitely has some skeletons - although they all do.

Yes definitely the reverse is true when BTC goes down - another reason to exit miners when the right time comes.

Riot reported annual earnings (49.5 mil loss). However the interesting part is they utilised the new FASB reporting.

If Mara does this next week (close of play 28th) then I think they are going to report a bumper profit, which would be great for all miners.

"Reported non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA of $214.0 million in 2023 which included a $184.7 million gain on Bitcoin

held on the balance sheet. In December 2023, the FASB issued ASU 2023-08, under which, Riot recognizes its

Bitcoin held at fair value, with changes in the fair value recognized in income. Riot elected to early adopt this

guidance in 2023."

https://s3.amazonaws.com/b2icontent.irpass.cc/2865/rl131361.pdf

The swimming pool was promised but never delivered. Sums it up really.

Most of the regular posters on here started out with (or had an investment in) Argo, but the company took various decisions and actions of which almost all went bad (due to bad luck, inexperience/poor judgement, lack of preparation, greed, etc).

So we're creatures of habit and carry on using this board to discuss better options - as you've said yourself you're happier having moved on to a tracker/fund. We could use something like stocktwits, but it is mostly Americans shouting at each other. We've got a good set of characters here that want to discuss miners and the industry from all angles, and I like it as it is.

If/when Argo starts moving again, then the board will be flooded with Argo minute by minute price commentary. Most of us are posting less frequently here now - so I think we will slowly move on - but it is still a useful resource for UK based bitcoin mining investors and a good place to get various tidbits of news, analysis and thought.

I would argue that we definitely should be discussing sector leaders and peers on here, as they directly impact the Argo share price. Let's be honest, Argo isn't exactly giving people a lot to talk about. Are we ever going to hear anything from the new CEO?

I find this site useful for tracking with lots of useful tables/charts:

https://heyapollo.com/bitcoin-etf

Still awaiting FBTC and BITB data it seems.