Member Info for CLSKBull

Bitcoiners "The US Government is our friend, we can trust them"

Said no one ever.

It's just nice to have a fleet of bitcoin treasury companies that can help eat up supply and finally let this run to new ATH. Been a difficult year investment wise to date.

Yes HC - I think when there's a long period without news and the share price drifts downwards people start to overthink, and you have to take a step back and look at what you're holding. I think the risk/reward profile is still favourable as you say, but the next few updates are critical.

Marc this is a very good point. There have been a lot more buys than sells (I know as I bought a lot - 30mil in total), but the share price has gone down, which to me says market makers are f'ing us about. I know I'm not shorting, and I don't think HL allows shares to be borrowed for shorting, so the price action today is weird, 7.5% down on 11mil volume, of which a good amount were buys.

Tiny amounts really - but this share moves on tiny volumes. Corrumpo I agree with your sentiment. I must admit my confidence in this company is not what it was, and that I'm living on hope rather than conviction. But I'll let it play out as it often just takes a few good days for everything to shift. Every share has a chance of going to 0 also and that's part of the game - but it feels this is already well oversold and unloved.

Yes but as most the debt is the senior notes (ARBKL), they are really their own play (but wouldn't touch them either). The common shares themselves are worth 0 on fundamentals. I think they'll be cash flow negative at the moment so unless either bitcoin runs to new ATH (possible) or they come up with some genius master plan (less likely) then I think we all know where this is going.

Thanks ID for that, nice analysis and logic.

I can't see a way forward for them. Old unprofitable machines, most of which are offline - worth $2 to $5mil.

They have a 15MW site worth between $5 and $15mil.

The debt is mostly the senior notes, which I would expect to be priced to the above assets. I think they were originally priced at $25 for $40mil of debt, so current price of ARBKL at 6.63 is roughly right.

How the shares are at this current price who knows - I can't see a way this doesn't fold. Feel bad for the new CEO, he has been decent and wasn't involved in the making of the mess. Credit to him for sticking around it can't be easy.

Haha they must have an 8 month year over there. Would be nice to get a good update and less mañana

Hasiba how much EH do they have online at the moment?

So they have "requested a temporary suspension of the listing of its ordinary shares from the Official List of the FCA and from trading on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange with effect from 7:30 a.m. on 1 May 2025, pending publication of the 2024 Financial Statements."

I take it this is because they could not meet the results publishing deadline, and therefore they have to be suspended until they publish them.

Meanwhile Galaxy making a killing off Helios. Still disappointed we never got an apology off Peter Wall.

Galaxy making the most out of their Helios bargain:

https://x.com/hdcharting/status/1915031599680233640

Comms do need improving, completely agree with that.

The warrants are not an issue until the price has at least doubled from here. Dumb reason to get out.

Yes and it's brutal out there at the moment with Trump changing his mind every 5 seconds.

Gold has retained status as the store of value king and chart looks parabolic. Bitcoin it's hard to tell what's coming - instis are here but there does not seem to be heavy buying, just trading and derivatives. Also retail is completely absent. I thought 100k would trigger a proper bull, but it was largely ignored. Nothing has gone the way I thought it would go. But this trade war is going to carry on it seems, so loads of volatility.

With HL often 500k is the max you can buy at market. Sometimes it's 1mil, sometimes a lot less and only tiny numbers. I've found with HL that if you try and buy too large a quantity they put the price up for the whole order, but you can buy in smaller batches and get a lower overall price. So the 500k buys are nothing more that that.

Fundamentally gold is more favourable, however btc miners have another innings in them (hopefully). They move nicely when btc runs, and are at asset value. However q1 results for the hodl miners will be ugly. Mara and riot especially.

MB that's my target range also, although if it got to 140 I think I'd sell it all.

I would like to see bitcoin not drop much further from here, see a bottom and then rally. If this is the low then miners should see good returns from this point, Especially if bitcoin runs to new ATH. Miners are basically at asset value now with no premium.

But it is all framed by what happens in the general markets. You would think that the Fed has to step in at some point and cut rates or inject liquidity - ideally both - this would setup a good backdrop for a run. Next FOMC about a month away though so a bit of a wait. Is all the badness priced in? Possibly? Hard to call but I would think it might be a good time to buy now. Unless the cycle is over already - always a possibility. My gut says we still have another run at it though.

This is my only share in the green today. Thankful for it.