Member Info for CloudyMountain

Siborg76, do you realise now why we said what we said?

It’s not good for you. I appreciate that. But you can learn from it.

“I would exit, put the experience down to bad luck and perhaps try to learn from it. And try to read more of the opposite view to your own“.

Well said. It’s awful for those who’ve lost money but it may be the reason why you do well in the future.

“But the BoDs never needed to do a D4E deal...”.

I covered this yesterday in a comment, mainly simply by giving the link to an article. The writing’s been on the wall for ages, I’m afraid. Sadly, some people ignore the warnings or just can’t see the situation for what it is: https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=TCG&share=Thomas-Cook&thread=8348E4CE-C992-4664-BBA8-1B78325335EB&reply=true

“And what if Fosun’s offer is 15p?” Why stop at 15p? They could offer £1.50. Or £15. Or even £150.

But it doesn’t work like that.

Far too many people buy into shares simply because it’s dropped. Their sole “research” is to look at the share price graph and think “what’s gone down might go up”.

It’s the debt. It’s the debt. It’s the debt. So many talk about things like the weather this year which completely misses the point - you’re in dire straits when your income is less than the interest you’re paying on your debt.

Too many investors in this share seem not to understand debt.

I am aware that The Motley Fool has got things very wrong in the past but I can’t fault its logic here.

That would be relevant if TCG was in a healthy state but it isn’t - it’s mired in debt. That’s the problem.

See this (two months old but still relevant): https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/05/21/investors-are-taking-a-gamble-on-the-thomas-cook-share-price-heres-what-id-do/?source=eedyhoemc0000002&utm_source=yahoo&utm_campaign=UK_All_Articles&utm_content=Articles&utm_medium=rssfeed&lidx=0

“But the more I look at the company, and the urgency with which it’s tackling its crisis, the more I’m becoming convinced it’s going to survive“

I agree. After a debt-for-equity swap, heavily diluting current shareholders.

This article is from May but everythig it says is still relevant. It explains the debt for equity point too. https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/05/21/investors-are-taking-a-gamble-on-the-thomas-cook-share-price-heres-what-id-do/?source=eedyhoemc0000002&utm_source=yahoo&utm_campaign=UK_All_Articles&utm_content=Articles&utm_medium=rssfeed&lidx=0

Did you say at the time on here that you’d bought in at 8.5p? It’s good when people do as, while it’s not proof that they’ve done as they’ve said, they can’t deny getting it wrong should it subsequently fall, which gives them credibility should it rise.

Mind you, some do deny getting it wrong. On CLLN, people who advised others to buy would months later be saying the same thing despite the share price having tanked in the interim. When challenged, they would claim that the whole time they’d been buying and selling on the way down, making a profit despite the fall and despite their predictions. I must get myself one of those retrospective dealing accounts.

@Siborg76: In my case, it’s because I like to educate myself. I followed the Carillion discussions during its decline from cruising altitude and it reminds me of the chat on here. It switched from people saying that the company would recover, all the while the share chart resembling half of the Matterhorn, to (right at the end, when only a bailout would save the company) people saying the government would HAVE to bail Carillion out due to the consequences of not doing so (good luck with that, I thought). When it went under, it switched again, this time to apportioning blame.

There was even someone who was passionately advising people to sell (and had been for months) who had a Damascene conversion just before CLLN went under, advising people to buy. He was entitled to his opinion but I was astounded - he’d banged on for months about precisely why not to buy, with informative comments and sound reasoning - the critical thing was that I felt it all still applied.

As I said, I’m on here to learn. Personally, I’d be delighted if the share price shoots up. I just don’t think it will. Either way, I’m watching, learning - that’s my reward. It’s interesting watching the exchange of views and how people explain their decisions (I don’t include the “fill yer boots” posts in that, though it’s often a red flag).

... and this one refers to that “stakeholders” statement: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/could-kier-thomas-cook-shares-155006983.html?.tsrc=applewf

@masaimara, this article covers your question: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-d-shun-thomas-cook-112407308.html?.tsrc=applewf

If you click on “Thomas Cook” in the table, it gives you details including a graph.

Re “Possibly the shorts are closing”. On the contrary, the shorts have apparently increased - this website shows that TCG is now the second highest shorted share in disclosed shorts (there are warnings on its website regarding its accuracy). I last looked about a week ago and it was in single figures - now it’s 10%: https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc

By how much? And how many funds have reduced their shorts?

It’s the third most shorted share at present according to Shorttracker
(there are limitations & caveats on its website warning that its data could be inaccurate): https://shorttracker.co.uk/

Regarding my questions, the answer’s a 1% reduction and by one fund. The big picture doesn’t look good:
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B1VYCH82/

I’d love it if the SP shot up and you made a lot of money. I just find the risk far too high at present.

It’s the debt that worries me.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-d-shun-thomas-cook-112407308.html?.tsrc=applewf

“Over the 12 months to 31 March, Thomas Cook paid £122m in interest costs but only generated £30m of cash from operations”.

That’s terrible. Absolutely awful. Close to fatal. You’ve got to sell assets then.

“...The firm’s latest balance sheet shows total liabilities of £6,371m and total assets of just £5,026m...”

This article refers among other things to that recent “stakeholders” comment by Thomas Cook: Could Kier and Thomas Cook shares be bargains of the year? https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/could-kier-thomas-cook-shares-155006983.html?.tsrc=applewf&guccounter=1

You say “You posted that comment expecting -3% today but we're actually blue today“. It was down pretty well all day, by about 3%, hovering at around the 14.0p level. It then spiked up to 14.5p at close. I checked the SP shortly before and after close and was surprised to see the change. As it’s a spike, I wouldn’t read into it.

Stray “not”. It should read: “...(0.09% compared with 0.11% for the one you mentioned)...”

You said “Shorters are reducing their short as of last Friday 14th June, if they were doing it then, they will definately be doing it now, looks more and more each day like we have an offer soon...” Shame you didn’t mention that on 17/9/19 another asset manager increased its short *after* the 14/6/19 short that you mentioned, by almost the same amount (0.09% compared with 0.11% for the one not you mentioned). According to your own link, in the last month asset managers have increased their short positions by 1.18% while others have decreased them by 0.11% - i.e. the net movement is up.

I really hope for everyone on here that it’s true, by the way. I just don’t believe things until I’ve seen the evidence. Time for my meal. Have a good weekend everyone. I hope next week is profitable for you all.