Member Info for CloudyMountain

Gareth3672 posted a comment on Friday saying he’d sold.He then posted another comment saying he had bought back in at 4.28 pm with a smaller amount - so he’s one of the last minute buys.

I doubt he was trying to squeeze the shorters - I imagine he’s hoping for a bounce. One will come at some stage but I doubt it yet - I reckon it’ll lurch down again on Monday, perhaps by 40-50%.

I never invested and I won’t be now either.

@YinYang

“If the bondholders want a better deal, it will be for their benefit, not the equity shareholders”.

I agree. And it’s mentioned in this article:

“Thomas Cook said its bank lenders were 'supportive of the recapitalisation', but said it had to reach agreement with other stakeholders, such as the bondholders.

“One debt investor said the fact that bonds didn't plunge on Friday implied those investors might be willing to approve the deal and become shareholders alongside Fosun and the lending banks”.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-7244451/Thomas-Cook-rescue-deal-knife-edge-bondholders-hire-advisers-face-off.html

The bondholders could negotiate a better deal, leaving the shareholders with nearly nothing. That undermines the idea of shareholders & bondholders blocking the current deal.

“One debt investor said the fact that bonds didn't plunge on Friday implied those investors might be willing to approve the deal and become shareholders alongside Fosun and the lending banks”.

That’s further bad news for shareholders, thinking they might get a better deal by refusing to consent to the current one.

I’d expect a further lurch downwards on Monday.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-7244451/Thomas-Cook-rescue-deal-knife-edge-bondholders-hire-advisers-face-off.html

@manchego

You said “Now that the share has collapsed (in an outcome none of you predicted)...”

I don’t know precisely what others predicted but the risk of D4E has been there for a long time. And it was expressly predicted in this article: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-d-shun-thomas-cook-112407308.html
... which I cited on this discussion board.

That article’s dated 30/6/19 so people have been or should have been aware of the risk at least since then (though I’d be astounded if it hadn’t been mentioned on here before then).

So many people on this discussion board have been talking about issues such as the weather predictions for this summer while mentioning nothing about the most important matter - the massive debt.

@HK85,

I recall TCG tanking in 2011 and the massive price rise afterwards. However I don’t know why it fell and why & how it recovered so I won’t assume it’ll happen again. I suspect some investors over the last year have done just that - looked at the historical SP chart, thought “it recovered in 2011 so it can do it again” and invested *without any actual research*. It’s frightening.

That lack of research would explain some of the bizarre comments I’ve read, almost thinking you can will the SP into recovering.

The problem is the debt. I don’t see how TCG can ever recover without massive losses for shareholders (I’ve been saying this for some time) which is why I’ve stayed out - I never invested. Nevertheless, reading the discussions has been fascinating, especially the level of denial and the lack of research. Too many people seem to invest purely on the ground that a SP has plummeted.

@kabaa

So you make decisions based on what others are doing, on the assumption that they must have done their research? Wow!

I replied to one of your comments here, concenred about TCG’s massive debt: https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=TCG&share=Thomas-Cook&thread=51C38240-2093-48E7-B6A3-C3E580519D67. If you think I’m wrong, that’s fine by me.

I’m not telling to you do anything. For all I care, you can remortgage your house, put everything on this share and laugh at us from your Sunseeker next year.

@hawkwing81

“The word is that the bids were so low for the airline (as I said they would be and was told people would be laughing in my face when they fetched a fortune)...”

Yes, it was odd that people thought the bids would be high. Blinded because they have a vested interest in the company.

I’ve checked. I was right, @Gareth3672 - it was you. The mistake I made was that the person who bought into DEB wasn’t you but someone replying to you - HK85: https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=TCG&share=Thomas-Cook&thread=D671E80E-5AC8-4819-BF14-247F4C43AF8B

@Gareth3672 & @HopeSo

I laughed out loud.

There’s nothing quite like paying someone a compliment only to have it thrown back in your face.

It was someone else then. With a similar name. Search for it yourself. He said today that he invested £80k or £85k in DEB before the SP tanked.

It took me a few seconds to realise what you meant by a “suddo name”. LOL. That’s bad. Really bad.

@HopeSo, I hope you research shares better than you researched me. A mere glimpse at my posts would’ve revealed I believed TCG was a share to avoid.

I’ve only dipped into these TCG discussions so I am not familiar with your historical comments on TCG. However I’ve read many of them today and you’ve been very open, including about your losses e.g. on DEB. I wish you well.

@RonaldTrump - pull the other one. How much have you lost on this share?

Re “company is pretty much worthless. Heading towards zero imo...”.

I reckon it’ll bounce. People will buy back in immediately after the bounce (especially those who’ve lost lots). They might see a healthy profit on that single transaction. Then it’ll plummet again.

I’ve seem it before. People will be GUTTED when they see the bounce, FOMO cuts in so they buy in. They’ll be happy for a short time, then it pops.

It’s falling so fast that this page is saying the spread is currently 13.04%. It will narrow massively within minutes but it did that this morning too - the spread was about 10%.

Minutes later, it’s 5.12p (-61.4%).

It was approximately 6.3p so I casually looked at the live price and was astonished to see it is 5.60 p (-57.8%)

So you’re saying Quisty was wrong even though he’s been proved right?

And you’re saying he’s worse than ignorant and vacuous even though it’s obvious he’s neither?

“...AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said there would be "very little left on the table for existing shareholders with debt being written off and converted into shares”.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/britain-apos-oldest-travel-firm-134207695.html?.tsrc=applewf

“Bookings down etc is all across the industry at the moment. The weak pound, Brexit and good UK weather are all contributing factors. Look at the other travel operators - everyone is struggling atm. hopefully we can get this Brexit shenanigans out of the way sooner rather than later“.

All of that is irrelevant when you’re up to your neck in debt: https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/05/21/investors-are-taking-a-gamble-on-the-thomas-cook-share-price-heres-what-id-do/?source=eedyhoemc0000002&utm_source=yahoo&utm_campaign=UK_All_Articles&utm_content=Articles&utm_medium=rssfeed&lidx=0

But you forget that there’s always some people whose sole investment strategy & research is “Ooh, it’s gone down a lot! Let’s buy”.

Then there's others who’ll buy in solely because it’s risen sharply (as yesterday) and they have a FOMO, ignoring all fundamental data.

Then there will be people like Siborg76 who will say that, despite predicting that the SP will rise eg to 50p, he will say he’s still made a profit on the falls because he mysteriously bought on the dips and sold on the spikes up - he’ll tell us this retrospectively, of course. See here for one example of when he says he did that:
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=TCG&share=Thomas-Cook&thread=349894EE-A6C4-43B4-855C-9B6E422BF42C

So, yes, the trend will be down but sudden spikes up wouldn’t surprise me.

This is what happened with the Carillion discussion boards. Investors refused to accept the warnings that Carillion was going under - reading those discussions was so similar to reading these ones. When it did go under, their posts changed from wild predictions about a rocketing share price to blaming the BoDs - just as now. I expect we’ll see a lot more comments like that.