Member Info for Cloudsurfer737

Following their latest dialogue with fuel suppliers, Jet2 have just reported a positive update about fuel supply, which supports their plans to operate their flying programme as normal this summer. All looking good, there should be more Customers in their market due to problems in the Middle East so I think the current price remains a bargain.

Why is the Market Size so low for this stock - you can only reliably but and sell £2500 worth? Seems very illiquid for a main market listing?

Agreed James. I'm watching on as I do think there's an investment in YOU when the time is right. It wasn't YOU but the wider market that I'd shorted. I came to the conclusion on Friday that there must be a reducing appetite but in this world, who knows? As you say, at present, cash is king.

Thanks. Maybe - nothing seems to be really pushing things down as much as you'd expect and IMO the US will walk away soon claiming a 'victory', after which we'll continue as we were. On that basis I've closed my shorts and wait on the sidelines to invest when things start to clear. All things considered and without really being able to get a handle on the intangible assets, YOU to me looks like a good recovery play (when it starts to show signs), and even more so due to the falls during the global instability.

Thanks - yes all understood. It's after the storm has passed I'm looking for opportunities. Debt understood but it does seem the 'intangible assets' are the sticking point as I guess there value is debateable. Hopefully if/when the trend turns there's a good opportunity here but I'll watch on for now.

On every basis this seems a solid share at this value (once the macro environment works itself out) - assets, profitability, dividend, growth and general quality. The only question mark is the 'Intangible Assets' value of 424M. Is this the appropriated value of their database and who qualifies this - their auditors and if so where is this substantiated? This is the only reason I can see for the continued downtrend though I'm watching interested on the sidelines for when momentum might reverse. Any opinions appreciated.

Thanks all for the input on 'shorting'. I'm a bit baffled by this one really. I watched it all the way down from the big drop Jun '24, waiting for an entry and felt safe value at £2.50 but it continues to drop. Against my usual practice I'm still holding based on potential growth, value, dividend and quality but the downward momentum continues! I appreciate it isn't an exact science but is there something I'm missing here as I need a sanity check?? Thanks.

Many thanks. I understand this but what is the actual mechanism that allows a 'Shorter' to depress a share (and a companies valuation) to their own end. I can't influence a share to increase, so how do they influence it to decrease.

Out of interest, when institutions 'short' a share - how do they go about this? I've been watching YOU for an entry point but can't fathom in this odd world where people can make money by manipulating a share price downward, where they stop and the upward pressure takes over. It seems odd to me but I'm old school and just look for fair value but that doesn't seem to apply these days in what's fast become a game rather than investment.

If you were going to make a bid would you do so within the sellers defined window? I don't see why that would influence anything other than a bidding war. It would be far more common sense to keep your powder dry and watch over the situation. There will be bidders out there but all the informal process did was ensure none would be made during that period. I'd suggest the real bidding action will be in the next 3-6 months.

"Further update to be provided on mechanism and timing of expected £1.4 billion shareholder return, prior to completion."

Any views on the above and where the share price might be once the business unit is removed? I have a significant holding here and might reduce exposure but if we're likely to see £8.44 returned and the share price remains stable or even increases from here then it would seem sensible to hold. Any views appreciated.

It's there in the last update:

"Stable balance sheet position with cash at period end of £49.8m (31 January 2024: £53.4m) and leverage ratio of 2.0x net debt to EBITDA."

Seems sound to me and the business is also growing through acquisition.

"Is there anything on the horizon that JMAT development has that will see future growth?" The same could have been said 5 yrs ago when the share price was £30+. There was only cash burn on Battery Materials which was always a bit of a punt and never certain to deliver, but the share price remained high. It's still a solidly based company (perhaps too solidly), but my point is the drop is excessive based on the long term fundamentals of the business and it's Net Asset Value alone.

Appreciate there's been a correction but this goes down far faster and harder than the market and climbs back slower, if at all. Market cap now of 1.97b vs NAV of 2.38b in a company making reasonable profits with a forward PE of ~6.5. On Stockopedia, everything looks good apart from momentum which is abysmal and has been for years now. So what on earth is going on?

I'd been watching this for a while as it seemed a generally well run business with good stats (on my basis). However, just reviewed thinking of buying but the change in raw materials contracts seems to have decimated the profitability and it's now just priced on it's asset value. Is that a reasonable judgement?

I was in this long ago at an average of 10p. They dropped to 1.6p at which time I'd long given up on them. Some time later I sold at 22p. So unlikely as it seems right now, there is a potential phoenix from the flames. Exactly why it's dropped beyond historic lows or why the company is soooo quiet is a bit of a mystery when it was only proving the extra potential reserves that disappointed but such is life when you swim with sharks. The economics for the initial find on which it climbed to ~23p when I sold are still there (at the time people were talking of 30-50p on that alone).

Some hope for you all.....it's nasty getting burned by CHAR. This was from 12/4/22:

"Long term holder here, left at 21.9 last Tuesday. I still hope it's a positive story for you all but after all these years and at times having written the investment off, finally getting back in reasonable profit I decided to withdraw my funds for somewhere safer. I made the decision on the basis of all the falls over the last 10 years and as tempting as it was to continue, having held too long in the past I simply asked myself if based on all the history I'd invest the same amount as I had tied up at this time and came to the answer no. At some stage everyone needs to make that decision and I'd advise all to use discipline - it's very easy to hang on for more profit then get hit by an inevitable fall. Hopefully this means you'll kick on from here and I wish all well. Thanks to all that have posted over the years - there are some very knowledgeable posters on this board."

I kept an eye on things and was interested to reinvest below 10p. That came and went and finally I jumped on board after the spud at £6.5p which seemed good value. The above referred profit has now gone! I'm a little amazed that the share price has dropped so low but such is life. In CHAR anyway. I'd suggest letting the dust settle and riding out. I wrote them off last time long ago and eventually they came good again. It's always darkest before dawn and there's always hope! If and when they rise again.....read the above and read it again, I was fortunate to have taken a profit near the top last time round.

A bit far there as it's still profitable though, in a transition and with good irons in the fire for the hydrogen economy and Sustainable Aviation Fuel along with solidity of precious metals. My bet is on a recovery (or buy out) from here.

I was looking at these before the last rise and kept them on the radar. All fundamentals still seem good other than the renegotiated brine contract which seems to be responsible for the reduced EPS growth. With another plant coming on line and potentially a further one to follow it would seem the company will build from here. What are the thoughts on the depressed share price - is it to do with potential fall in the iodine price, potential issues with new plant or something else? Any ideas appreciated.

That to me is the more likely reason for the fall in share price - an anticipated pull back in the iodine price which has been surging in the recent past.