Member Info for Cloudsurfer737

I don't follow? The iodine price is still robust, the new plant is online albeit ramping up slower than anticipated and the next new plant is committed. I don't see any reason for such a dramatic fall unless you can read something into this I can't see?

Sorry again rivaldo - this is the kind of person I thought you were (from NT), just a note to others to be mindful, whether you are or not I'm sure you appreciate the same sentiment:

"For newer market participants a little warning about videos/podcasts etc where people excitedly talk about shares and an "interviewer" talks to company bosses.

Mostly, interviews with companies are paid for by the companies. Therefore don't expect any objectivity.

Indeed some companies pay money to people to push their shares everywhere they can.

These paid pushers then go on all the popular discussion forums to pump those shares, publishing all positive stuff about them.

So you could simply be buying on the say of someone on a bulletin board who is getting paid to push the shares. They are good at their job and paid to be seductive."

Thanks rivaldo. My apologies if you aren't in any way connected to CAPD. It doesn't surprise me either way as I have a friend who has a listed company and he pays 3rd parties to provide positive updates on the boards. It clearly happens on many other boards too, I suspect the majority of the small caps so just a note to all to be mindful.

Rivaldo - thanks for the feed, I have to assume you're somehow on the payroll at CAPD? The problem at present as you seem to have identified is that the company is exposed to the performance of it's investments which had grown considerably but fell back substantially last year. As such it's as much a play on an investment fund on African mining stocks (of which I'd be very wary) which is detracting from the fundamentals of a solid business. Maybe feed this back to the powers that be.......

Thanks Rivaldo. Results look ok, MS Labs seems to be the growth story with other areas performing this coming year as expected and I'm picking up a higher than expected re-investment in the fleet so maybe a slight negative there. My take is that initial shock was influenced by the very investment performance we talked about - the change from $33.7M gain last year to $19.9M loss this year looks shocking and distorts those headline figures. Further down you can infer the underlying business is healthy.

Further:

Predictive Discovery (ASX: PDI): At the end of Q3 2021 Predictive announced its maiden resource for its Bankan
Project of 72.8Mt @ 1.56 g/t for approximately 3.646million ounces of gold. Our last reported holding of Predictive Discovery was 10.44% as disclosed on 19 July 2021; This was in the last annual report.

The portfolio remains concentrated around a few key holdings with our holding in Predictive Discovery
accounting for ~50%; This was reported in the last operational update.

Clearly something has changed but it's not clear from any of the financials I can see to deduce net inflow/outflow from investments, merely that they have substantially reduced in value over this last year. It looks like the FY22 results are due next week so will be worth a good look. Any enlightenment appreciated.

rivaldo - when you say the other investments have been "highly successful to date", it was actually the fact that the investments had been deteriorating (quite markedly) over the last 2 years. Do you know the reasoning for these losses (appreciate they're unrealised)? The operation seems quite solid accepting the risk of African mining, but there doesn't seem any point investing in good active profits when the company is losing such significant amounts on the non core investments activities. From the last interim results:

"Net losses from equity investments of $10.3 million in H1 2022 (unrealised), decreasing the value of Group strategic investments to $47.3 million, net of cash proceeds, as of 30 June 2022 (31 December 2021: $60.2 million)"

Didn't think this would drop below £23 again after the last news. Anyone got any views or understanding on why it's sinking again?

Many thanks.

Just flagged this one up and quite like all the fundamentals. The only question mark I have is the investment performance from non core activity capital investments that seem to have been picked up from partners over time:

Direct Investments Update

-- The total value of investments (listed and unlisted) was US$38.7 million as of 31 December 2022, versus $47.3 million at 30 June 2022 and versus US$60.2 million at the end of 2021; The portfolio recorded investment losses (unrealised) of US$9.55 million in H2 2022;

-- Capital was a net seller in 2022 and has invested a net total of $12.5 million in the investment strategy since forming the Investment Committee formally in January 2019;

Does anyone have any understanding of the threats posed by loss in value of these investments that the company holds (or alternatively any potential major gains that might be expected). I'm not a big fan of investing in African miners directly (so not a big fan of these investments) but do like the services side of the company which to a certain extent is quite protected from the feast/famine of mining/exploration.

Why does this stock not always mirror the FTSE100? Today the FTSE has been down 1% but this stock only rose 0.3% when it should have risen 2%? At time of writing the FTSE is down 0.3% and this stock is DOWN 0.1% when it should be UP 0.6%??? And advice appreciated.

Excellent thanks - yes i agree and had just dug that out.

Evening all. Saw the news today and did my research. Was initially put off as I thought there was more debt than seems to be the case (at least as assumed in net debt vs EBITDA). In the financials, what are the "Other Non-Current Liabilities 91.80" ? Any info appreciated, many thanks.

Many thanks

Evening all. Just looking at this one - seems a generally well run company and on a sound base. Has the share price been influenced significantly by the increase in spot price of iodine? The spot price seems to have gone up ~60% in the last 18 months or so - just trying to gauge what is a decent entry level and if there's any threat if/when the spot price returns to average historic levels. Thanks.

Many thanks, much appreciated

Hi all. Just looking at Yellow Cake out of interest. Essentially at the moment the investment case is the spot price of Uranium and from that I deduce any past reported profits are simply the increase in value of inventory? Is there any strategy going forward to sell and what are the costs of storage before then? At present, being not too far from NAV it seems logical to wait for a dip but I think the long term should be viable (if I understand what the strategy is). Any info much appreciated, thanks.

Thanks. Yes, thinking it was a potential recovery play I'd asked for some help yesterday but dug the info out of the News:

After reflecting the current forward curve, which incorporates expected rate rises next year, cash interest costs would be approximately £170 million for the full year 2023.

After reflecting the current foreign exchange rates on the non-GBP denominated debt, current gross debt is £1,810 million, with cash (net of customer balances) of £186 million as at 30 September 2022 and undrawn committed facilities of £150 million, giving total liquidity of £336 million.

Cash interest (their own estimate) of £170m with pre-WH profits of £80m seem a bit of a saddle on the assumption WH was also a bit of a donkey and requiring investment/restructuring. Along with all the unknown external variables of legislation etc this doesn't seem a wise investment at the moment though would appreciate other views and happy to be proven wrong. Thanks.

No not a troll and wish you all the best, hoping it takes off. I was happy with anything over 20p. My view is best case 40p, worst case (and based on previous experience) a dip to 10p. A dip to 10p being more likely simply based on previous market forces and company performance. With that I'm not taking fundamentals of gas reserves into account as things on AIM are rarely valued on fundamentals in any case and much more so influenced by hype. Hype can fuel a share and I can feel the brigade turning up, but sentiment can also quickly turn. A bird in the hand and all that so I took my profit and what I'm saying is be disciplined as you never will take your profit otherwise and eventually will more likely be at a loss. I really do hope this takes off - as I said, I've watched on this board for years and there have been some very knowledgeable posters. I wish you all the best of luck.

Long term holder here, left at 21.9 last Tuesday. I still hope it's a positive story for you all but after all these years and at times having written the investment off, finally getting back in reasonable profit I decided to withdraw my funds for somewhere safer. I made the decision on the basis of all the falls over the last 10 years and as tempting as it was to continue, having held too long in the past I simply asked myself if based on all the history I'd invest the same amount as I had tied up at this time and came to the answer no. At some stage everyone needs to make that decision and I'd advise all to use discipline - it's very easy to hang on for more profit then get hit by an inevitable fall. Hopefully this means you'll kick on from here and I wish all well. Thanks to all that have posted over the years - there are some very knowledgeable posters on this board.