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Yesterday I had a good relisten to Elrics last interview with SA. A lot of the points we speculate about on this board and a lot of the concerns raised are actually discussed and covered, given it’s basically an hour of Stuart talking. I’d recommend a relisten to anyone who hasn’t in a while, it dampened down the ants in my pants a bit!

What is your reasoning for those feelings TC?

I think the pre subscriber numbers are something we absolutely need to know at some point soon. Just because for those that attended the Manchester meet, it will tell us so much about how to receive what Stuart says. Elric, are you willing to ask SA this directly for us?

You do have a good point Bel about how we should hear something about it soon if it was actually worth pulling 1.2m worth of deals that had already been forecasted. I fear they've primed us for a long wait and if questioned we’ll no doubt be told that Axis is 18 months ahead of schedule and ‘the company was formed floated and most importantly funded as a B2B entity’ - not sure how long those lines should really continue to fly for… But yes if a multinational deal had been judged as materially likely to happen based on conversations in Feb then it could be argued we should have at least chosen a favourable party by now, but SA’s interview with Elric about a month ago indicated that management were still discussing what kind of deals work best for us and for a third party. Maybe someone who has held a corporate position in a multinational can answer; how long should it take to choose a party? How long should it take to hammer out the small print of the contract?

Maybe with covid now been a thing of the past there might be an AGM we can attend soon to get some real answers…

Realistically, there is not a hope in hell than we’ll see a deal announcement within 3 weeks. I totally share the viewpoint that the sooner the better for the share price, but we’ve been well and truly primed with the term ‘long-term interest of shareholders’.

I think you’re right Bel the SP shows that the jury is still out at this moment in time when it comes to the ability of our management to deliver on the hype they have successfully built up over the past couple of years. There is certainly potential there in both the management and the science. They have a lot in the pipeline so naturally need time to deliver, but I think any further 5 month silences will tell us what we need to know, as much as I hate to say it. I do believe that with the amount of things going on, (remember, ‘this company is not a one-trick pony’), we should be getting an RNS around every 8/10 weeks for the near future with either updates on particular events or a general trading update. The reason I believe this is that we are currently looking forward to Axis launch in Spain, Axis multinational deal, Croda update, oral care study paper, Axis sales increasing as has been hinted at, and probably something I’ve missed. I would argue that at this point no updates means no progress and this would be very worrying, regardless of how much I do or don’t trust the management to deliver.

Of course the Ukraine war, the economy and any other uncertainties will effect the SBTX share price. It will effect the whole market, but strong income producing companies will be more resilient. SBTX is not producing strong income so will be more volatile. It doesn’t mean our SP can’t increase on positive news.

Be another good reason to buy in now for anyone that agrees with you TC. I don’t believe it to be the case but I think if there’s any talk of one of the big companies interested in an acquisition the share price will double the same day, and then some.

What I would say is that even large companies generally have some degree of speciality. I’m sure Croda is really very interested in the Skinbiotix pillar, but why would they want to pay for Axis? That’s not what they do. Likewise for any food/distribution companies that want to champion the Axis pipeline of products, how would this affect the Croda deal? It’s much more lucrative for a multinational to secure the rights to their specialist pillar, leave SBTX to keep on developing for them and simply paying back a royalty. It’s much better business for them.

Thomas, I think we’ve got doldrums written all over us for a while. Not sure why we would decline too much because everything is priced in, we’re fairly well derisked now and these levels are fantastic buy in prices which should counter any bored sellers. But nothing will happen in the way of re-rating until we see some tangible progress.

Aquae, my mistake, I thought he meant it as in looking into all the details of the deals for due diligence

The update just serves as an evidenced reminder that we shouldn’t have to wait long for more information on this multinational deal. With SA saying that (3 weeks ago) they were in discussions with a couple of multinationals that are interested in the whole pillar. If there is more than one company at the table it’s down to SA to close a deal. I’m sure there is lots and lots of due diligence involved but SA has also said it would be easier than doing many deals with smaller distributors, which was the original plan. Let see what, if anything, is delivered.

I noticed the other day whilst updating my phone apps that the AxisBiotix app has requested an update and in the section where it tells you what it being changed it says ‘addition of Spanish language option’.

A small thing but shows we’re closer to that Spanish launch.

3 products seems low; when you find out two of those products are Vitamin C and Sunscreen, which I would argue are more like anti aging hacks, it brings to light how special our product is. The third is Retinol which has side affects.

Aquae, I’m sure there are some very cogent arguments for a raise to support an Acne consumer study, but I’m not totally convinced. Your estimates on subscriber numbers seem well considered and realistic, but they do illustrate why launching more similar products is risky, when our big event has produced circa 270 subs in 8 months. I can’t go any further with my point without jumping off the fence onto the side that means pulling down the sales efforts of the team, and I do not wish to do this. I’d rather drop my point. One thing I would point out though, is to clarify that I meant I wouldn’t support a raise for R&D at these levels, which I think would be an insult to shareholders. If we saw 3 RNS’s this side of Christmas which were; Croda launch successful revenue in production, Axis sales increasing or Axis pillar deal done and Winclove successfully complete Acne formulation, maybe the SP would be on a roll at that point and then yes it would be favourable to keep the momentum by funding a consumer study.

I am glad you have provided some logic around the 335% figure given after the 22k numbers to December. This was something that didn’t stack up for me, but again, I did not wish to argue a point that unnecessarily criticised the management, who ultimately need shareholder support and a little time to get us back on track.

Good points Aquae. I don’t think I could support a fund raise for additional R&D. The current focus of the whole team should be on successfully commercialising the IP we already have, which is plenty. There’s no point having 10 great products that work before we have shown we can make a profitable business from a single one of them.

Elrico, why ever would you accommodate a meeting with Phat at this stage? He is obviously in the unfortunate situation where he has bought high, sold low - we know this because of the money he has claimed to have lost. Nothing you can say in a meeting can make this right for him, which is what he is wanting by coming on the board seeking to threaten and intimidate. Fact is, nobody that knows how AIM shares work should ever recommend shares to anyone in their circle who doesn’t understand the risks properly. If Phat and his circle properly understood the risks of investing they would dust themselves off after a loss and move on, not begin a vendetta against anyone they deem responsible. There is only one person responsible for Phat and his friends losing money, and that is Phat, just as he would bask in the glory if they all made 50 grand each. Leave them to it.

To the many people who will be reading this post that never comment or may not even be registered on LSE, I bet a good portion of you are underwater. I am, by enough to buy a terraced house in my locale. Take Phat’s actions as a lesson on how you may feel if you don’t hold your nerve and you sell. You lose. You may also stay in and lose! What we would really like is for Stuart to move on from his communicative and financial hiccups and restore our SP by coming through on the Axis deal/s he has implied and making sure we get that Croda revenue when he says we will. There are other things he can do to enhance shareholder value and the onus is very much on him now to pull these out of the bag, and quickly. It is my opinion that if he does this successfully, there is a very real possibility that lots of investors who bought in in the 20s, 30s, 40s and 50s could double their money within a year from now. Those buying at 17p could multi bag. BUT, if Croda’s launch is delayed or unsuccessful, no Axis deals are mentioned and the retail sales remain woeful, we could be at 10p or less in a year. When the reward is high, so is the risk. I for one have always thought the presence of SA hugely negates this risk, but he has lots to prove now we are at the stage where we need to see results for shareholders, not just hype talk. For those that might feel robbed by SA or Elrico if we have a bad outcome, you will soon be able to get savings accounts returning over 2%, get one of those. I for one am preying for high rewards and still think this is the most likely outcome, but if we lose everything I would happily sit down for a drink with SA and/or Elrico and thank them for trying. Of course I’d never invest in anything they have anything to do with again, which is about living and learning, take note Phat, instead of threatening to reveal someone’s address on LSE. Time will tell, long live SBTX!

I’m another vote for it being nothing to do with us, but seeing it is encouraging and hopefully it won’t be too long until we see some kind of marketing announcement that IS to do with our product.

Oleric, whilst your post is factually correct it is very cringeworthy to read.

Just remember what kind of man it takes to make their best judgement and then to put their name to that prediction and put it out to the masses. Also what kind of man uses the benefit of hindsight and makes a list of the things someone has called wrong and uses it to try make himself look big and clever.

We subscribe to Elrico for his insights as well as detail from the CEO and whilst I imagine a lot of us are increasingly likely to take the content from a conservative viewpoint, a lot of it is very interesting and relevant.

Big punt, Stuart referenced this in one of his interviews recently. Someone correct me if I got off track but I believe he said that a deal for that entire pillar with a multinational would be preferential to them as they then have a team developing new science and bringing new products into the pipeline which they would then have exclusivity of. Presumably, he meant that if there was a hostile takeover people like Professors Cath and Andrew McBain would not be a part of what the big fish were buying, therefore none of their list of future ideas get developed.

Phat knows what he is doing, and certainly knows more about this share than he is letting on on his posts. Not surprised by this from a board newbie, but a little surprised to see this from Phat.

Hope so Buckie. To me half the SP is based on what the company is actually doing, the other half is sentiment about what market thinks the company is doing. Improved communications between now and Christmas can only help the sentiment side of things.

I agree Bel. This is one of the only board I know of where (most of the time) negatives spins on the company are talked out rather than just been met with abuse and accusations of motives. It’s good that such a quality board represents a quality small company - I know it’s not perfect but at this moment in time I couldn’t tell you of an AIM share even close to being as good as this one.