Member Info for CleverChoices

Even commited to working on Saturdays!

There is no doubt LB is intelligent. He can construct an argument out of even the smallest of detail.

Is Kodal running perfectly, without hiccup, bump in the road, learning curve lessons etc. No! To my knowledge nobody is saying it is.

Thankfully the rise in spod price has been HUGE, which more (way more!!) than compensates for any 'challneges' encountered. The market cap being similar to when Spod was 800 almost beggars belief. Very impressive deramping skills IMHO. Hat almost dipped in strange admiration of the skills displayed.

Anyway, back to life. KOD will re-rate when the key facts can no longer be ignored.

From Kodals point of view, I imagine they are also arguing that they expect Hainan to pay in full. I.e set your case out with best possible outcome and negotiate down from there if rqd. But unless specifically detailed otherwise, both parties must have imagined a scenario where it would be paid from KMUK (even if both hoped that would never be the case)

Wouldn't Kodal have been expecting the 15m to be paid out of funds from KMUK, of which Kodal own 49%?

Or is the suggestion that Kodal expected Hainan to pay out exclusively from their own funds (the latter seems 'hopeful' if not explicitly detailed in the share holder agreement / articles of association

AISC of $647 and hoping to achieve a sale price of $800-$900 a tonne for the spod! Wow - how much has changed over 7 months!

Given the increased fuel costs around the world and the extra security required to ensure the mine is protected, we can't be anywhere close to an AISC of $647 pet tonne, but the spod price has improved sooo much, that most other concerns and issues start to become background noise. Even if the results of the arbitration conclude that Kodal is liable to pay the full 15m (presumably 7.5mil more than they envisaged anyway) it will still only be a minor knock in the scheme of things.

Looking forward to the accounts being released, the SP adjusting, then the seemingly almost inevitable sale of KMUK to Hainan for a more realistic price. £150 - £250m is my bet.

Dyor.

Https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.democrata.es/en/international/mali-claims-to-have-killed-more-than-60-alleged-terrorists-in-airstrikes-near-bamako/amp/

So Petro China seem to be delaying signing the 2026 agreement in the hope they can drag it out until oil prices fall, so they don't have to buy at inflated rates. Good strategy by Mike to gently 'threaten' to sell the oil direct to try to speed up progress, though depending on the situation in Iran, relying on only one buyer for the oil could be an expensive lesson!

Look at what Kodal have already come through to get to this point. Building a working mine, all the resource, legal, h&s issues type issues that go along with that (can you imagine), negotiating with Mali government over licensing, managing fuel supply shortages and external threats, securing an off take partner etc. Of course there are continuing risks, but as with running any business, those risks have to be managed as and when they arise and as deemed appropriate by the mgmt team. In the meantime, they are now basically at the stage where they just need to 'carry on' doing what they are already doing, for Kodal to be successful. A far easier and less risky stage of the business than actually setting up shop. This however is still not yet reflected by an improved SP.

I think that's 45m estimated tonnes at approximately 1.17% Li2O when in the ground. Once mined, they then put it through the DMS plant to increase the grade to something like 5.26 Li2O (by separating and then discarding of the waste rock - note they are actually targeting 5.50 Li2O according to the website).

Looking at the last RNS, they fed the DMS plant with 121,330 tonnes of feed grade rock at 1.18% Li2O to produce the 19-20,000 tonnes at 5.26%. (Approx x6 feed stock to produce the 5.26% lith spod for shipping).

So if they continued at those rates, the 45m tonnes in the ground would produce something like 7.5m tonnes of Lith Spod around 5.26 - 5.5%. Assuming $1500 per tonne (seems a little low considering Kodal are focused on improving the Li2O grade and lithium prices seem likely to increase), then the rock in the ground is worth something like $11.25 Billion. Obviously DYOR and press your own calculator buttons!

Various 'contributors' to this forum seem hell bent on trying to suppress the SP by raising every minor negative point they can come up with, but ultimately Kodal are now well down the road of extracting a shed load of lithium from a low cost, fully operational mine, selling to a willing off take partner who's paying at agreed rates and endorsed and licensed by a supportive government (after their cut admittedly), with further upgrades and other opportunities to explore and add into the mix when the timing is right.

This IS the one! Well done Kodal team.

Aren't the developments in Zimbabwe a positive catalyst for KOD? Google tells me China currently source circa 15% of their Lith Spod from Zimbabwe and that proportion has been increasingly rapidly on recent years. In the short term that may be enough to exert upwards pressure on the Chinese Lith spod price helping Kodal, but also more importantly, if / when the Zimbabwe government finally agrees their take on lith exports, Kodals operation becomes more competitive, with the Zimbabwe miners all having to split their revenue / profit in a similar (or likely worse) fashion than Kodal?

@ Chef - The value of Kodal is almost wholly dependent on the price of Spod. Thankfully that price has increased dramatically, so Kodals profits will increase dramatically. It really is that simple. Same scenario as junior Silver miners who are now forecast to make huge profits on the back of increased silver prices.

"mined and sold another 100,000 tonnes or so" that should say

A while back when the Spod price was around $700 per tonne, Bernie said they were ok and in the black around $800 per tonne. Since then, somewhat fortuitously, the spod price has increased to $1960 per tonne, with several analysts predicting it'll get to $3000 a tonne by the end of 2026.

Bernie has recently said they'll be running pretty much at nameplate of 125,000 tonnes per year from here on in. So by my calculations, that's an EXTRA $1160 x 125,000 tonnes per year in profit. That's an extra $145m PER YEAR in revenue above where we were in the summer.

& that's without the expected further increases in Lith Spod price and without Kodal drilling any of their potential gold assets to get the markets excited.

Appreciate the share structure isn't straightforward (rarely is when operating in these jurisdictions), but the financials speak for themselves. Factor in that Kodal are still finding their feet, growing well and the mgmt team appear to be very capable, and I believe a market cap of $500m is more appropriate. This has a longggg way to go, so I wont be selling until the market cap approaches near what the company is worth / expected to generate.

Another way to look at it - when the end of year 2026 financials are released after they have mined and sold another 100 tonnes or so, even if the current market cap is double todays figure, the PE ratio will still only be a laughable 1.something. No brainer - this could still easily 5-10 bag from here.

Not meant as financial advice, just my opinion so DYOR.

The ratio of buys v sells yesterday was crazy good. Not sure how the MMs managed to drag the SP down in the face of such overwhelming buyer pressure, but it certainly seems to have dampened enthusiasm temporarily. That said, most shares were hammered yesterday, so perhaps political influences allowed for the suppression of the SP? Any ideas anyone?

I think the wider market must be nervous due to the recent placing . Though for context, URU is a very small company, sat on HUGE mineral reserves. Raising just over a million quid to further enhance the business and likely position it for sale / JV partner is a positive and necessary step for a company this size and given the scale of what's on offer here, I think it's a relatively modest amount.

On a personal level, I've been invested here a long time, always with a nagging doubt in the back of my mind, that how can such a small outfit secure mining rights to such a big opportunity, potentially worth many billions. But, to the credit of the mgmt team, everything they say has eventually come true and somehow they've finally netted those elusive mining rights for 30 years! A hugely positive milestone, so well done to the team over there. I think a market cap stuck around 6-7m will look silly in 12 months time, so i've been topping up - Happy Days! DYOR.