Member Info for CJ66

Don't markets just hate uncertainty - and just like Brexit, nobody seems to have been able to, or perhaps unwilling, to set out predictions.
The couple of bits that worry me with regards XLM are that it seems 'actual consent' has to be obtained and cannot be assumed in a passive way (I have taken the opportunity to bin quite a lot of neutral rubble providers with this)
+ information can only be used for it's specific original intent i.e. not collected and used for other, even similar usages.
I think the uncertainty can spook - because unlike some transitory profit warnings - this could change the viability of it's whole business model if they cannot adapt around it.
I'm no expert - but hopefully with the results will be an honest opinion of this next year - that will be my gauge. I've held onto the shares, hoping (incorrectly) this was best for a gradual recovery, but any signs of bluster, or what they don't say may be equally interesting. It's the old adage that they may go up or down - but could keep on going down

Portmeirion (PMP) results today should point to a good showing here at the interims end of August for CHH.
although selling in a different area and not nearly so seasonal, both have relatively high fixed costs and are currently benefitting from the weaker currency.
CHH recent trading update pointed to higher sales than expected in Europe - look at PMP's sales increase of 11.5% that meant profits nearly 30% up, and indeed CHH's full yr revenue rise of 5% giving a 15% profit increase. For some years this share had a steady increase but seems far more volatile of late, but a share high of £12.50 last January and £11.70 back in Feb 2017 with lows down to £8 - Although no expert chartist - if you follow the old 'steady' trend the line is that this should be around £12 now.
Don't think Brexit is such a worry her either - not a perishable item & currency is more important than any movements of taxes unless they are draconian + a growing spread of sales around the world. This success is key to take the place of pressure on overexpansion in the uk's eating out market.

Matt - I can't see anything detrimental either and it seems a drift on no news, as the AGM statement was only in May.
With a 5%+ dividend and interims due early August (3rd last year) - If we are right it should get a modest lift from these.
I'm in for a small top up here

Just when all is well the gold price drops - IC Trader reckons it could go as low as $1150 medium term.
However on the plus side this is a vastly different company now with debt gone, per ounce production costs very low, and a credible plan + money now available for exploration.
The price rise may stall, but the medium term outlook still looks promising - and just as the price sentiment turned quickly, it can do the other way as well.
For me still a good hedge against other shares - and a small dividend will means it's better than a lump of the shiny stuff!

Interesting view - but in this complexity of acquisitions I'm still with following the Chairman - as confidence in him is a large part here.
The article doesn't add up - because although T/O was up on forecast, so was the EBIT - but not the EPS - which shows more a discrepancy as to how they were calculating projections.
Big point is the acquisitions - which of Keraben were 'larger than all previous put together' - there is execution risk in this growth, but he sets out and has followed a pattern of solid profitable companies in different areas with ceramics being over 60% of flooring sales - justifying a fitting bigger purchase, on around a 13 times current profit multiple.
I had reservations, but his execution so far is excellent with a management approach that is similar to J.Fisher which has gone from around £1.47 to £18.50 over 15 years. Read his Chairmans statement - it puts whinging Brexit politicians & public to shame - I may be proved wrong, but on balance I'm staying put!

Disappointing drop in palm oil price from $750 to $570 - supply & Trump. Just a watch out call, that if it persists it strengthens KLK case to try and buy on the cheap again - as MPE profits will fall even as productivity rises because fixed costs are fairly static. As ever commodities are a pendulum and hopefully the major investors will be looking long term enough!
I'm still holding - but then I have done for nearly 20 years - from just under 60p....

Good point sparrow makes - I originally purchased this share partly on the basis that it is a natural hedge - being virtually uncorrelated to the economy / commodities etc. i.e. my other share holdings.
Having made an initial purchase soon after floating at £1.20 - I expected growth as an interesting business, but the rocket fuel growth has been some extra!
As usual my crystal ball failed to tell me I should have put my life savings in - but I'm not complaining, and as others note, it still doesn't appear a point to sell out or even top slice yet.

I take would some of this micro analysis as noise. i.e. some regulars avoided going to the pub because it was full of football or 80+ degree heat and carvaries are less appealing, high or low price vs volumes and margins etc.
The key I believe is more about providing the different options to capture a wide public, and how well you run the company vs debt and longer term economic/market factors.
For me Marstons scores well on the 1st but struggles much by default with the 2nd = on balance I give the benefit of the doubt to them reasonably offsetting the 2nd and keep collecting the resultantly high dividend !

Yes it has set 5 yrs at $2m dollars a month for the $120m. Plus at 1st anniversary has 6 months of another $2m a month to the vendors as well. Total borrowings were about $180m in Dec. With the high leverage of profit to fixed costs, and a rapidly falling copper & zinc price this is a bit in the lap of the gods.
Set against low cost production and a reducing debt interest - it might still weigh on the share price and even dividend if it continues to fall. September interims will show progress.

I will be interested to see what Simon Thompson (IC) says on this.
I think he thought it was a steady upward progress with a 5% dividend like Strix, but I'm not so sure now.
For this to happen so soon after floating is insightful and somewhat worrying.
Remember it's not just the Hurricane, but also a number of significant bids that failed - which shows they either took their eye off the ball or it's tougher than you think. It may be a great buying opportunity, but I will stay on the sidelines

Thanks Madgpol - positive buzz on ADVFN, & certainly sounds very positive, and I do always feel AAZ Mgt have tried to be professional and not over ramped prospects as some small miners tend to feel they have to do.
Some may be slightly disappointed with the dividend as they will probably try to make it progressive and will need to keep money by for developments, especially if further afield than near Gadebek.
4p looks far to optimistic - nearer half to 1p in my opinion, but anything would be a bonus!

The AGM statement was very upbeat, but not quite as much detail as last year - possibly some caution with a lowering of the gold price. Don't know if anybody actually went - for any closer insight?
However this is a very different co. to the one a couple of years ago staggering under debt from equipment, inefficiently high costs (with the lack of flexible equipment) and geo technical problems.
With a very low 2nd qtr comparable I'm hoping the Q2 statement mid July should give it a rocket - on both no debt, low cost + growth opportunities.

This is unfortunately another disgraceful misuse of a stock market company by a controlling shareholder that was manipulated and should not and need not have happened.
Although I sold out a while ago, this confirmation offer doesn't do anyone any good and gives the market a bad name. Shame on them as underlying this is a perfectly good business.

Oops - I just see from a recent IC article that Menzies would like to sell their distribution division to pay down their high debt level. Who would be perfect to buy that...or Connect would have been if they hadn't cods everything else up! As you say emil there is value here - but it is just how long before it can be realised with Pass parcel half yr losses of £3.5m and growing + close down costs, contractual obligation losses, Tufnells now losing money, non cash asset write downs - it's big kitchen sink time, (whilst you can't blame the new boss) and I think these will go down further, before a possible rise after the results and or signs of actual progress. For that reason I think I am now getting out with 1/2 an eye to possibly come back again one day!

Dead cat bounce ?! As stated before the latest debacle - best to hope for is to try and stabilise Tufnells and sell it, then the value, albeit declining, will show on a clean newspaper distributor that can be bought by Menzies. Easy to be hard on yourself with hindsight - but I must admit I should have taken notice of all the bad signals re inability to make a success of bought businesses - then selling your supposed 'growth' business the education side - concentrate on a really tough carrier sector with your main customer the ruthless Amazon. Have to admit got some concentrated future learning points done here!

Needs an S.T. update to boost the price again. The results are very good - but people don't appear to have cottoned on to it being 'jam' tomorrow on the fee income, which will only kick in over this next year / when funds are invested. Think also that people just look at the traditional property valuation of the NAV figure, when this company is a hybrid getting fee income rather than a straight property owner - oh well will have to sit and wait now !

I agree, it was always a mugs game paying out way more than your earnings - even if short term the dividend yield looks attractive. It now has a chance to rebalance more along the lines of PHP with a price near asset value, 4-5% dividend and can still make reasonable acquisitions. Hard medicine, but its in a good and needed business, so now it can continue steadily upwards, rather than up it's own proverbial !

I think the following in the results almost says to me that a dividend cut is on the way - '..the Board will carefully consider the optimum allocation of the Group's excess free cash, balancing the capital requirements of the business and shareholder returns with an ambition to reduce net debt over time.' If they don't cut it will be madness, the best hope may be to cut the debt and then a merger to happen as the newsprint market contracts further. We must be getting to a point soon where the lack of competition' hardly worries the authorities and it becomes part of distribution logistics. Unfortunately they seemed to have utterly failed to diversify into a different business, and almost admit it by selling off those other parts.

Toscafund have come back to me saying the wording on the Kiid information form they have to produce has been amended, which should appease ii to be able to not reject calls for inclusion in an ISA. To be honest RGL are large enough and far more robust than say small cap miners that can be included in ISA's, so it looks a rather arbitrary and clumsy decision on the part of brokers that odd words such as 'specialist', is then translated to only for professionals !

I had this same rubbish answer from interactive investors (ii) when I tried to bed & Isa - which was ironic as I hold some RGL directly purchased with Isa cash last year. I have e-mailed Toscafund who are keen to follow this up as to why the broker is saying this - who are your brokers, because if different I can give them their names over as well? Will post the outcome when answered one way or other....