Member Info for CJ66

Easy to see why it is down - surface view is it's 4th quarter GEO output is down just over 5% against last year,
+ plenty on mapping, interpreting, potential etc. but still the risk in actually finding / working.
Having said this the broader picture is all rosy - so probably an opportunity to buy.

Trading update coming very shortly, and if the statement at interim are anything to go by this is too low by about £2 again, even knocking some more off for lower market expectations.
With 63% exported the lower pound offsets Brexit issues, and it has shown real product sale progress. With relatively high fixed overheads the profit will far exceed the sales increase at present.

Halfpenny, I think there is too much positive news about AAZ out there for 40p - it would take a gold price collapse, which with current upheavals seems unlikely, as gold shares thrive on all sorts of uncertainty - it maybe better switching your thinking of a smaller short term gain for £1+ !

At least the daily buys vs sells volume is now stabilising - which Brexit shenanigans aside - should slow the rate of descent and then push back up. Amazing how institutions paid £18.50 and now 25%+ lower, and to think some voices were complaining small shareholders couldn't participate at this favourable price!
I think we need a few big case wins to really boost things again - if the numbers come through this could go back up almost as fast as it came down because on balance it's still huge potential (albeit with some risks), whatever economic situations are.

I agree, Reza Vazeri for a start holds 29% and the higher it goes the less likely a takeover.
Having said that I don't want a takeover - they survived having everything go wrong at the same time and now have everything going right at the same time!
The real full marks are holding out and not doing a hugely dilutive share issue when things were looking really bad (Director was putting his own money in to keep it going), and I think a learning point from Daisan's post is that this may carry risk, but Africa very often disappoints as their Govt's can't seem to help changing the rules and making open grabs - I know from painful past experiences, my vowed last chance was Tanzanite 1, a really good business ruined by greed.

Good to see a couple of institutional notifiable holdings up, especially in light of the dire market surrounds - hopefully light at the end of the tunnel, even if the new level is likely to be somewhat more muted than previously having been bitten once.

I also agree, but it's interesting that this share never used to move much and in fact I have long held it because it doesn't directly correlate with commodities, retail sales etc.
For the 1st 3 years I held it it moved from £1.20 to £1.26
However whether it's now because the institutions are involved, but it whipsaws with the market far more, even allowing for the far higher price - it can now regularly move 50p to £1 a day - even if it ends up near the same...(and it is still the same business underneath)

SFM 1.32% / Ennismore 1.15% / Talomon 1.19% / Polar .84% / TT .81 = Total 5.21
They will no doubt wriggle out with a nice profit at the expense of others, but I hope they now get their pips well and truly squeezed having assisted to damage another company without a care....

Spruce House Investment agrees even if nobody else does - now has a 13.5% holding.
Wondered who they were - it describes them as a ' US based longer term investment management company'.....
(That's a chunky 17m shares now)

You may have to speak to somebody at SUPR. I had the same problem with Regional REIT (RGL), spoke to RGL and they sorted something out on this = I am now able and have purchased them (I'm with ii).
I'm not totally sure if it's the KID or the brokers that are the problem - because it's daft that a share like this is deemed more risky for professionals only, than some 2 bit tiny speculative mining company - common sense in short supply again!!

I think £5 short term may be more realistic, the damage has been done and it was as high as a kite anyway.
Agree Deepjoy, good to see a contrite and straight talking message, a lot of billy has been said - I still think longer term this can operate and grow like a flooring equivalent to James Fishers (£1.40 to £18 over 15 yrs) marine approach using a policy of collecting businesses that can continue to operate standing alone, but with a central overall control. Especially where there is very little overlap, rather than just buying the opposition.
They have been integrating the group with the distribution in uk and consolidating in Aus, but I would be much more worried if they started trying to integrate every facet of each business - that's where many acquisitions go wrong. Down from cloud 9, but hopefully a gradual rise from here - at the end of the day it was still £1.20 not that long ago.

Worse still - just seen an earlier one from 15.04% to 16.08% - another 500k+ shares

RNS Today that KLK have upped stake from 16.28 to 17.98 - that's a purchase of nearly 1m shares so almost has to be an institution selling - not good.

Certainly a long slog at present Hops - CPO now under the $500 level and 25% down on the years start at $678.
With largely fixed priced costs, this must be hurting, although they do have a robust balance sheet.
I think the main danger is the big shareholders remaining patient and not seeking a quick panic sell.
KLK must be licking their lips as this will hurt the short term profits + reduce NAV, as the biological value is based on the achievable crop price.
Clever thing for management to renew the buyback which helps stop a price drop, and keeps the veneer of everything alright. I hope a CPO price recovery is on before the final results next year or KLK will be back for no more than £8

Palm oil prices have now dropped over 25% from the $678 and today sit below the $500.
This will hurt with a reasonably fixed cost base as AEP has acknowledged, despite a 9% increase in production.
As a cyclical commodity, this should be somewhere near the bottom as profits become wafer thin.
AEP is well cushioned with cash in the bank, and I stand by the below for longer term, but it's going to take some while for the earnings to turn the share price again (despite the slightly bizarre 7p increase on basically a profit warning today!).

I'm bemused by the different positions of the institutions - with some happy to subscribe to shares over £8, and now shorters and sellers.
The trading statement didn't seem bad with some like for like growth at the expense of some margin - hardly surprising in this market + growth from acquisitions albeit again not surprisingly from more debt and equity.
The financing seems more of a change from one type to another.
So what's really changed to halve the share price.
The only bit on the pro forma figs I didn't like the look of, but I'm not a trained accountant, if anybody can explain is that the pro forma has an enourmous £59m exceptional cost on the acquisition of Keraben explained as 'pre acquisition exceptional costs' with in even tinier writing '...costs under previous ownership' with some weasel explanations (including previous mgt incentive plans) that results in a loss for the whole Victoria group of £37.9m - which presumably means that Victoria's next results will show a thumping great loss - that even as an exceptional one off - lacks proper explanation now.......I don't understand how they can have racked up, or VCP mgt accepted this £59m without full reasoning!?

Clearly the Zinc & Gold prices are paramount share price drivers in the short term - but the longer term key is the Zone II mining licence.
Griffin has been waiting over 5 years for this which is key to long term prospects, and medium term expansion, but who knows whether the Chinese are being fickle, political or just intransigent we don't know.
Positive signs are about - but they have been before - but this is why they are cheap, and the risk reward could be worth 50-100% extra to the share price. If you have the spare money - put them in the draw and one day.....!

I agree, I think it's focus time on gambling + an element of GDPR type considerations across the world (except, no surprise, it seems trump land!). Like smoking, I think it's the end of the easy times.
However 3 rays of hope medium term for XLM - It had a big fund raise at a high price so has plenty of cash + it has some diversity (even if not fast enough or yet big enough) + when some of the immediate hype dies down - like smoking and petrol, the governments don't want to totally lose tax & employment (even though this is 2 faced).
I didn't sell out, as usual hindsight says I should have done, but due to the above I'm not going to sell now as I think the basket case is almost covered by current fall. It could become a risk buy if it does.

I suppose you can look at this as - twice in the last 2 years it went from £10 to £12 and then dropped back 20% to £10 again (would mean £16 from £20 here),
but this also illustrates it has gone up from £10 last October, £4 the year before that and £2 Oct 2016
It's a fabulous share, but has to be allowed some pull back - funny about those angry at not being allowed in at the placing price of £18.50, small investors have to be content with crumbs and they are not always worse off.
I've been happy to just top up a few at below £17 - I suspect it may go lower still or higher but you have to be happy with your own judgement !

Just remain aware that the divi comes with a price. I would actually prefer that they kept the same dividend and built the company up to cover it by Rent - basic costs, and then make it 'progressive'.
- not all bad but the share price seems so low I'm not sure the rising dividend doesn't make people more nervous!
It is all good at present, but could turn badly if things change, and does mean they have to keep a highly active recycling just to stay still + rely on valuations which are only partly in their direct control.
By broad illustration from 1/2 yr results - 7.2p is rent income but minus 2.5p of normal admin / 2p of finance cost and 4.3p of dividends. i.e. the 7.2p is whittled away to a loss of 1.6p - but fortunately 1.9p is the gain on property sales & 7.4p is a gain on the revaluation of properties = impressive looking gain on NAV.
Don't get me wrong, they are performing, and doing the right things, but as ever there are risks further out.