TWs Christmas message (2022) was...9 Mar 2023 14:17
This sell tip is not a zero. I do not expect it to go bust as its boss, Dave Richards, is a fellow who always seems able to raise money and to do so at full prices. But the valuation of Wandisco (WAND) is just plain bonkers.
Wandisco describes itself as a data activation platform. Right from its IPO getgo it has been announcing big contract wins and, to be fair the wins are getting bigger. But that has not translated into cash generation. As at June 30 2022 cumulative losses had reached $191 million. They will be higher now. The company listed in June 2012 so after 10 years on the market it is still loss making.
Now call me a dinosaur who has not got a clue about the new economy but surely the point of companies is to generate cash nit to burn it with *** abandon?
At 30 June cash was $32.7 million with trade receivables at $12.5 million. By the end of the third quarter despite all those contract wins, revenue growth yadda, yadda, yadda, cash had fallen to $26.3 million with trade receivables down to $10.3 million implying, ceteris paribus, an underlying three month cashburn of $8.6 million.
I suggest to you that, however many contracts Richard conjures up, however many costs he capitalises, before the company becomes cash generative as opposed to cash guzzling, it will need to raise fresh equity yet again.
Meanwhile the valuation is insane. At 935p the market cap is £616 million ( $742 million). For a company guzzling $8.6 million of cash per quarter and with cash likely to be sub $20 million by the year end, that is bonkers. Wandisco likes to tease the bulls by talking about its large bookings but its actual revenues are pitiful, in H1 they were just $5.8 million.
Most new economy unicorns have seen their valuations slashed as folks realised that the emperors new clothes were not that impressive. Somehow Wandisco has escaped the carnage in 2022. In 2023 as it races towards yet another bailout fund raise surely reality will strike, investors will wake up and smell the coffee and realise that the current valuation is bonkers.
A SELL on Wandisco at 935p is my third tip of the year.