Member Info for chumba

Are they 'aving a larf?

From a few weeks back!

The Theoretical price at which the shares should trade, once the rights are detached • TERP = (Current Shares Outstanding * Current Share Price) + (Newly Issued Shares * Subscription Price) / (Current Shares Outstanding + Newly
Issued Shares) equals €9.23!

Am I missing something here with the sp languishing at £5.10?

So either all the years that I spent studying economics and getting my MBA have been wasted or there is a huge gap that should never have occurred?!

Taken the plunge! HAGWEA! No doubt the bulk of the Frankfurt boys are on the train now ready for the long weekend!

Now sub a fiver...tempting.

Let's all help the poor dears by ringfencing our holdings by putting excessive sell limits on our holdings. They then cannot be loaned for others to profit...

Good one Stumpy...maybe me too.

TUI is all but classed as a too big to fail company. The Bundestag has loaned it money and like our govt with the banks, wants it back. Fair dos. Conclusion. This will continue to see turbulence for a while, like the weather in NRW currently, but once sorted, then expect blue skies ahead. The German Govt have and I have no doubt will if necessary, underwrire TUI. Therefore, I am happy with my holding and am not panicing.

soon be reached? Hold on to your hats!

HEXAM

Thanks for the info, a great analysis of the TERP situation. I suppose that it would have been helpful for us LTHs, and the wider investing community, had they shown their calculations in greater detail...after all, assumptions are the mother of all ruck ups!

NOT working in the City...oops!

Mike
Thanks for getting back. My background is serving Queen and country in dusty places and now working in the City! so, TERPs, etc are relatively new to me. However, I am OK, I think, in sorting out nonsense when presented. So my simple question is why did they come up with the TERP figure in the first place? did the lads nip down the rubba on a Friday afternoon and after a few London Prides come up with that figure or was it down to scientific analysis? The former me thinks, but then again I am not a City gent!!!

from JubberJim

"Allen and Ovary were the advisors on this rights issue I am led to believe

Very apt as it looks in the first instance they tui and myriad investors have been left with an awful lot of egg on the face.

Think whole proceedings have been nothing short of facial confusion the predominant factor hence have decided to wait before venturing into this debacle

Not helped by a very poor market

Very fortunate to have exited with very meagre profit.

Beyond a joke
Will wait for the magic number R I price of 485 before even considering entry and always will be guided by general tone of market which is very subdued

Have a good weekend all"

I don't quite know what to say. I have mentioned TERP before and the 45% dive in price since that was calculated. Will it drop further? Clearly if the shorters have their way, then they believe it will drop further. But at some stage the sp will level and rise again. Why? Because irrespective of macro economic concerns about the state of the economy, many families now wish to go on foreign holidays again and from TUIs own forecatsts, demand is very strong.

So let's pray that TUI is about to enter its phoenix stage!

Wee Jock. Grow up and take your bitterness to a different board.

Jock...Tom Winnifrith, the Sheriff of Aim. And what I am saying is that the sp is already 45% lower than predicted by TUIs highly paid advisers. For a crate of Germany's finest (abut E10), I too could throw a dart at a board and come up with an arbitrary number!

And as Aspers has said, we may well see a much lower sp on Monday. PIs may panic and sell their new shares at a loss. I assume that is what the shorters are expectting?

"On 28 March 2023 various data providers initially applied an incorrect adjustment factor of 0.5295 to TUI’s historical share/DI prices, as they did not consider the exclusion of the sanctioned
shareholder in the ongoing rights issue. As a result, amongst others, an adjusted TUI share price (TERP) of €8.324 was featured for 27-Mar-2023, XETRA close. In the table below we are
showing the correct rights issue calculations with an adjustment factor of 0.5807, resulting in an adjusted TUI share price (TERP) of €9.128 for 27-Mar-2023, XETRA close."

Too late now to give meaningful comment, but clearly all the suits have got this TERP utterly wrong. On Monday we will have the ARIP...or after rights issue price and by my calculations going on Friday's close that is almost 45% lower than the experts have predicted. Now, either I am talking utter drivel or they need sacking for getting this so wrong.

It's a shame than TW probably wouldn't be interested in this share, by way of commentary. But someone needs to comment on the behalf of us lowly PIs..

Jock...crickey. That's some news. I wonder how many seats will be offered?

Although on another of their investors slides it states that the TERP should be E9.128, using the Correct adjustment
mechanism!

Confused...maybe so it's Warsteiner time! Prost!

The Theoretical price at which the shares should trade, once the rights are
detached
• TERP = (Current Shares Outstanding * Current Share Price) + (Newly
Issued Shares * Subscription Price) / (Current Shares Outstanding + Newly
Issued Shares) equals €9.23!

Am I missing something here with the sp languishing at £5.10?

So either all the years that I spent studying economics and getting my MBA have been wasted or there is a huge gap that should never have occurred?!

Shave..I tend to agree, but then I'd say that anyway more out of moral support for myself! In a way this has been classic text book stuff where the shares have all dropped to the RI price, or there abouts. Give it a couple of days to settle, for the new shares to churn and the for us sticky holders to determine that this is a golden opportunity and pile in. And hoffentlich soon, the TUI Board will start a share buy back programme and or pay us sufferers a dividend! That would really show a sign of confidence.

Ultimately, and listening to podcasts and reading written comment, the travel industry is going great guns at the moment and oddly enough, after a few years of not being able to, people wish to get away again.