Member Info for ChrisToffer

Wikipedia haha if that's where you are doing your research then it must be correct!

That's exactly my point Dave. Only an affirmer based antigen or PCR test will tell you if you have the disease 'at that moment'. Antibodies can take up to several weeks to develop separately, therefore no antibody test will tell you if you have the virus 'at that moment'.

Sleepydave, according to AVCT's RNS this morning, "Cytiva and Avacta will now work to develop rapid test strips for the detached spike protein and for the intact virus particle, aiming to have prototype devices in a few weeks. Adeptrix will be working on a similar timescale to develop a prototype BAMS test. Both of these tests will indicate whether a person has the infection at that moment."

The 'at that moment' part distinguishes their affirmer based test from an antibody test?

They haven't said that though have they Piper? Little naughty/misleading that post of yours. At risk of being labelled a cross-ramper (though invested in both there and here), AVCT are not wholly reliant on their collaboration with Cytiva and actually have a lot of long term promise (take a look at their cancer treatments!) Additionally , they own the rights to the affirmers and have stated that they have made it clear to potential partners that they will not offer exclusivity. They have also stated that they have developed the affirmer which is, technically, the hardest part.

None of this should be any threat to ODX anyway as they're different tests.

All great points guys! Would a successful/safe phase 2 trial not allow Emergency Use Approval, therefore production/distribution could start?

Also on the timing, i don't think we should underestimate the significance of this drug being allowed into homes already. Any other treatments that are starting out in phase 2 must surely have a long way to go before that.

I'm not seeing any RNS. Could someone be so kind as to post it?

Yea im not overly bothered about movements of the shareprice over the next 4 weeks. Its nice that upswings bring more attention to the trials and the company but the product is the most important thing, for both investors and people who get the virus.

Thanks Bhnyc, I was using 120m shares, I assume LSE hasn't counted the latest placing. Yea the 5x bid was straight out of the air haha

Thanks Ghia, i'm only playing around with numbers really as i wouldn't know where to start in valuing a drug, let alone a successful treatment for this virus in this current climate.

If we were to follow Finncaps guidance of 240p on successful initial trial results and suppose AZN then put in an offer of 5x that = 1200p/1.4Billion. Have I done the math right there? Does that sound like a fair projection (accepting there are a lot of successful assumptions in there?)

I guess they're gonna want this in the press at this stage to raise awareness of the availability of the trial in homes. It saves them paying for radio adverts etc.

BBC just covered Remdevisir on the news. Clueless!

Am i right that 3.30 would be a 420 mill buyout? Is that not quite low if this drug is successful?

Why Not? Unapproved COVID testing stocks are breaking over a pound and this treatment has been approved for home use during trial.

Thanks guys, I know it's a pretty big scope and the current market hype makes it even more difficult! i wouldn't know where to start on a valuation but i guess we all have to think about just how far it could go if successful.

Very satisfying when someone says they're gonna do something and they go and bloody do it haha

Sharesting, you've mentioned takeovers a few times. What kind of offer would d'you think it would take for this product/company in the current climate?

https://www.hra.nhs.uk/covid-19-research/approved-covid-19-research/281317/ heres the link LP

Hahaha

That's correct Merchantbanker and was confirmed in the 5pm briefing where they said they are confident of having antibody tests in place for when they are needed around the end of May/start of June