Wheaty8124 May 2015 10:51
I see where you are going we did test 160 in the past that is why some of us think it should hold on the close, we tested the low attempted to climb run out of steam as in tested the high and return to test the low. We could do this many times until a direction is chosen. The it will either break out to the up side or move lower. Personally I think we might see this drop to 157 close above 160 again and then continue upwards towards the 175-188 level. My TP or at least the point I reassess the trade is 188-200 as you know. If it closes below 160 then I am probably out and moving on.
HOWEVER I am not a market expert, just some bloke on a bb sharing how I see things. But I think you are investing too much energy into one company. I am not suggesting you buy/sell/hold your shares here. I am simply saying that it would be less exhausting if this trade is one of a few you hold. Diversity and good risk management are key to winning this game. If you have got five trades with a nice entry and good risk to reward ratios, it doesn't matter if 1 or 2 don't do as you expected, because the other 3 make up for it. Depending on how set up your trades you could still make profit even if 3 of the 5 lose, as the two winning trades took more percentage wise than the losers. I personally don't trade with a fixed stop more of a mental one. But I tend to have a plan for each trade, and by having that plan I can almost switch off and let the market do its thing, if I come out on top great if not oh well. This doesn't work if you attempt to go all in on one company. The market is uncertain, it is a place where the professionals or criminals as you put it, are trying to take your money and so is everyone else. Proffesionals would never be all in on a trade. They also don't make all there money from one trade. If you are 'all in' I suggest reducing the position and either staying in cash or spreading it around a bit. No single trade should be capable of destroying your account. I also note that you seem to be focusing on where the share price was and where it should be. Remembering the past is important, but remembering where we currently are is also important, in terms of fair or intrinsic value, that is great in the longer term, but if you are watching every tick up and down the only price that maters is todays. There is a good audio book that might be of interest called the Trading for a Living: Psychology, Trading Tactics, Money Management. I never have time to read so bought the audio version for the train to work from a well know audio website. . I want to stress that I am not giving you direction on where this trade is going just what my plan for it was.