Member Info for Chrishar

Following novacyt over the next few years is going to be fascinating, especially as a newbie to investing. Full year 2020 profit is going to be three, maybe four times that of ASOS, a company with a £5.3b mcap! The most extreme example but eye-opening. If revenue from covid continues well into the future and Graham spends the millions of cash lying around smartly, we could genuinely see an mcap 5 times, maybe even 10 times what it is now in just a few years time.

Abso-****ing-lutely gggg. This is especially true if they are about to release stunning results and leads me to believe they are preparing for this exact eventuality...

Yeah I very much agree with others on here. Very happy with today's price action, if the sp continues its upwards trajectory and finishes flat or up then that'll be a strong bullish signal for next week. As tempting it is to try and trade there is every chance of missing a 10, 12, even 15% rise one of these days...

Org, I don't think it was because you suggested it was less lethal, it was because you've been like a dog with a bone... repeating and repeating and repeating it. We get it, you've seen a doctor or two suggest that might be the case. The general response to that is 'most doctors wouldn't agree with you and have seen no evidence to prove that theory'.

Should really be the end of the matter.

Sorry I didn't watch the full clip first. Having a bad day, not enough sleep. Will leave the board to all the excellent, informative posters!

Isn't Paul Hunter the eejit who claimed there have been no studies showing the benefit of interferons???

He's a leftwing journalist, it's his job to attempt to hold people to account. I see nothing wrong with what he's doing personally, if you're smart you'll use it to your advantage. I mean, the allegations and the subsequent sp crash has made a lot of people a lot of money!

Streets, I love that you've acknowledged your estimates seriously underplayed the short term potential here and have revised them to £4+. Can't wait for the results!

Yes I should have added ITV, Aviva and Taylor Wimpey to my list. I have followed the progress of covid intensely for months on end and have stuck to a strategy throughout and it has served me extremely well. My current thinking is that we'll see choppy waters for the next month and so now is not the time to jump in if you have a little cash set aside. Minus positive vaccine news there isn't really anywhere for the stock market to go right now. Cases will inevitably rise and so will hospitalisations/deaths (but not to the degree of March/April) and the threat of a second lockdown will loom large. If the shares you and I have both mentioned drop another 10%+ based on sentiment alone then that really will be an opportunity that can't be missed...
I've pencilled in a positive vaccine update for between 4 and 8 weeks time. Of course this is all guesswork but it's based on substantial research and rumination.

Apologies for going off topic here. I consider NEX the best opportunity in the entire ftse index but it's important to diversify however good the opportunity is!

I can't find another company that matches NEX's risk/reward profile but my four main holdings are 1) NEX 2) Boohoo 3) Novacyt 4) Synairgen and then a smaller holding in 5) Associated British Foods

I'm looking at a number of others over the next few months if they drift down further on the hope of catching a rebound from vaccine news in late Oct/November - BP, Rolls Royce, Saga.

I agree Ghia but we are talking large numbers now... a few hundred patients registered would be barely 0.1% of all cases and as the drug has a great safety profile it shouldn't be too hard to convince those eligible to join the trial.

Since expanding the home trial nationally (June 18th) I estimate that the UK has recorded 140000 positive covid cases... I would be shocked if synairgen have failed to register a few hundred of those.

Stanley be careful, they really are up against it. The level of debt is concerning and of course in this climate it's going to be difficult to convince people to shell out and make an evening of the cinema rather than just staying home. On top of that there is still a risk of increased restrictions leading to closures of cinemas once again...
The threat of bankruptcy will likely drag the sp further down and at this point the risk/reward might start to look favourable once again. Yes guitarman I was enticed by the 180p forecast by Peel Hunt and held until yesterday before deciding to jump ship pre-results. Perhaps I just got lucky...

No offence but CINE was always incredibly high risk whereas NEX was as safe as houses. Even with the 15% fall it's hard to make a case for investing in cine today imo.

Falkland once again well off the mark. 120p looking like a distant memory...

My previous post got deleted and I was issued with a warning for posting 'personal information that can't be verified' - it was a bleeding joke!

Meanwhile we're back at 8% again...

It's pretty damn obvious and I'll tell you why. NEX has had about 70% of its value wiped off whilst the actual material effect on the business is actually quite small. Not only this they are securing new contracts like the €185 million Portugal bus contract announced today. Lockdown or not there is no reason why this won't recover significantly. I can't predict the ebbs and flow but I personally don't want to risk trading it and suddenly missing out on a 10% rise.
Take any other company in the ftse that's seen equivalent losses. Rolls Royce? Lost slightly more than us but fighting tooth and nail to survive. Cineworld - the same. Heavily indebted and just announced an enormous loss for the first half of the year. Saga? The cruise business is anchored until at least the middle of next year.

You are not going to get in at 120p almost certainly... following the retrace I expect to finish today around the 133 mark. A steady march to £2 suits me just fine.

Ignore those numbers, buys and sells always get mixed up rendering the data meaningless...