Member Info for chrisc32

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/horse-meat-scandal-meet-yorkshire-1716057 http://m.yorkpress.co.uk/news/10234248.Butchers_busy_over_horse_meat_scare/ http://www.hertfordshiremercury.co.uk/Business/Business-News/Hertfordshire-butchers-count-winnings-over-horse-meat-scandal-20130218145346.htm

Knigel, it seems that this share is well and truly under the radar. One would have thought that the horse meat scandal and widespread reports of how this is benefitting independent butchers would have brought at least one curious newinvestor to the thread. The trading volume on Friday however was most encouraging, with over 3% of shares in issue changing hands - mostly buys. "High street butchers have been reporting a double-digit increase in sales as consumers turn to them for locally produced meat." http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/frozen-meat-sales-collapse-by-44pc-as-consumers-return-to-butchers-29077009.html There are long queues outside some independent butchers in scenes not seen since the days of meat rationing during World War Two. http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/299142/Shoppers-flocking-to-back-local-butchers/

Maybe today? Very tight real spread - Schroders offloading no doubt making shares available

http://www.farminguk.com/News/Local-butchers-see-trade-increase-amid-horse-meat-scandal_24964.html

Interesting to see that the holdings RNS was on regard to holdings as at 11th december - neatly 2 months ago. Schroders appear to be selling the lot and I think they've probably offloaded a shed load since 11 December too.

CRAW now trading at a 30% discount to its tangible net asset value. Cash generative, profitable. Market cap of 1.88m GBP. For me, CRAW should have a baseline SP around 4.3p per share to reflect its tangible net asset value. Or a market cap around 2.5m GBP. But this would still give no value to the profit-generation of the business. My price target is within the 8-12p price range. An 8p SP would value the business at around 4.6m GBP. If we strip out the net tangible assets of 2.5m GBP, this values the profit generation at just over 2 million pounds. This feels a much more reasonable valuation the the current 1.88m to me. But DYOR and reach your own conclusions etc. Net debt of the business has been drastically reduced by around 1 million over the past few years to about just 185K GBP. And we know that the business was performing well in the 8 weeks post the interims, with like for like sales up by 7%. A look at the long term chart shows a share that has plummeted from 40p per share (clearly overvalued) to just 3.25p (considerably undervalued IMO). Perhaps a good time to buy? This is also worth a read: http://www.eblex.org.uk/markets/news-beef-sales-increase-christmas.aspx Increased beef sales in the run up to Christmas "in the 12 weeks to 23 December 2012, household purchases of beef increased almost three per cent compared to the corresponding period a year earlier. Combined with an increased in the average price, this resulted in a near eight per cent increase in the amount consumers spent of fresh and frozen beef, to £530 million". Would appreciate any views on the apparent valuation gap.

over 10Ks worth bought in a single trade at 3.73p today. But a slight retrace in the SP.

Does appear that Schroders may be done ... at least for now. The one larger sale I thought was a worked Schroders sell was a recent buy that someone dumped at a loss. Apart from that it's pretty much just buys since the last holdings RNS. All we've seen is the SP rise on what is certainly not massive volume. Not a "matching" sell in sight.

Knigel ... hardly any posts aside from our swapping of views ... But interesting to read the sentiment less than 2 years ago, with an SP of 8.75p. SP could have much further to go from here IMO. mulledwine Price: 8.75 CRAW 27 Apr '11 Strong results but concerns re future trading prospects - otherwise this would be much higher today

Hi Knigel It's been just buying for a few weeks now, apart from the very occasional worked sell. Looking positive .. still trades well below tangible NAV though :-/

Market cap 1.88m GBP Tangible NAV 2.5m GBP (and improving) Discount: 30% 2012 half year Tangible assets 5,895,000 Total liabilities -(3,400,000) Tangible NAV +2,495,000 Net debt (200,000) *just under EBITDA 600,000 (annualised) Results to end Jan 2012: Tangible assets 5,985,000 Total liabilities -(3,600,000) Tangible NAV +2,385,000 Net debt (200,000) EBITDA 600,000 Results to end Jan 2011: tangible assets 6,380,000 Total liabilities -(4,100,000) Tangible NAV: +2,280,000 Net debt (500,000) EBITDA 1,000,000 Results to end Jan 2010: Tangible assets 6,320,000 Total liabilities -(4,515,000) Tangible NAV: +1,805,000 Net debt (900,000) EBITDA 800,000 Results to end Jan 2009: Tangible assets 6,615,000 Total liabilities -(7,135,000) Tangible NAV -(520,000) Net debt (2,700,000) EBITDA 1,100,000 Results to end Jan 2008: Tangible assets 3,460,000 Total liabilities -(10,585,000) Tangible NAV -(7,125,000) Net debt (8,200,000) EBITDA ?

Good to see some upward movement here ... It's been a one-way story regarding trades over the past few weeks, with buy trades outweighing sells, on much better volume for CRAW. 2 million shares traded in December is pushing 4% of shares in issue. Or 10 million or so since the start of November (17% of shares in issue). If Schroders have stopped selling then we may just see a swift recovery in the SP. The movement on low volume on Monday was encouraging. All the best and HNY :-)

Main thing is, no heavy snow. A bit wet in the run up to Xmas, but not enough I should think to deter the Xmas shoppers. Let's hope CRAW have had a good week's trading thus far.

I'm not entirely sure whether Schroders will be selling out entirely - but looks like they manage multiple funds (note the plural in the last RNS), so maybe they're pretty much done. Who knows? :-) C

Hi KnigelK, Timing might be good here. CRAW are on the cusp of a net cash position, having paid down a not insignificant bank loan over the past few years. Chart looks very bullish to me.

It was a case of seeing other opportunities I wanted to be in TBH.

Valued below net tangible assets here, so hoping to at least get back to tangible NAV for starters. risk v reward as with all investments. Hope you're well!!

Yes, buy and sell within the spread here at present, been out of STY for some time now ... hence no posts. Noted the movement today, so keeping an eye open.

Agree that the spread is a deterrent here ... as with all shares, it will ultimately be the company performance that drives the SP. On the profit front, hopefully this is the focus now for the BOD. Hope to see a Jan trading statement to update us on progress. CRAW have moved from a significant net debt situation to having net debt of under £200k. Could motor from here if the news is positive.

... for the replies. Just over a couple of years ago this company cleared about £1m in cash generated from operations. I'm hoping for a return to those kind of levels.