Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I meant to say ... it's hard to predict the numbers and equally hard to know how the market will react.
Hi Earlofspank All i can say is that the indications from the board have been positive in terms of recent updates, and the weather's been great so BBQ meat sales should have benefitted. If Crawshaw have increased LFL sales by 5%+ then I'd hope that we'd see the SP into double figures. As ever, it depends on the numbers and how the market reacts to them. But we'll definitely be in a net cash position, with the mortgage down to approx £500K. Exciting times, and chart's looking positive. I'm very hopeful, but it's hard
Reckon we'll see a good rise through till results!!! Lots of fluffy shareprices at the moment on a whiff and a prayer. CRAW looks positively undervalued with £18m turnover and strong cash generation.
a bit of profit taking looks to be done and dusted now. MMs are bidding 6.75p for stock so this will move higher on further demand. Results getting closer too - early October
You could wait to see if sellers appear ... in which case you should be able to get a quote to buy. Hope that's helpful
The market makers arr not offering any volume to buy at the current price. So it's difficult to get a quote to buy in any size at all. The options are to place a limit order at a fixed price to buy, or to buy at best. The latter means you may pay over the offer price in order to get hold of shares. These are tightly held, so the dilemma the market makers face is that they don't have much (if any) stock to sell. The share price will likely move up on buying of any volume as we have seen recently. Conversely, as it is a lightly traded and highly illiquid share, at times it can be tricky to sell if there is no demand on the buy side.
http://www.itv.com/news/2013-08-15/retail-sales-rise-as-britain-goes-bbq-crazy/
Late trade through yesterday
According to its admission doc, CRAW achieved profit before tax of over £1m per annum. In 2011, EBITDA was over £1m. A now dividend paying CRAW, who have turned a £900k net debt position to net cash through operational cashflow over the past 3 years whilst investing in a new Derby store, should surely be worth much more than the current £3.5m market cap. It has a growing net asset value around 4.5p to 5p per share at the last results ... and a forward dividend yield of .25p per share. But the opportunity is earnings growth ... ISIS partners converted their loan notes at 17p per share, so presumably saw good value at that price. A few factors decimated the SP over the last couple of years. Pasty tax fears, Schroders selling which has now clearly stopped, and poor results in q3 2011. That's 2 years ago, and trends in LFL sales have been positive since. Recent trading statements were very positive too. I'm very excited about where the business and shareprice could be headed ... The horsemeat scandal and excellent BBQ weather and improving high street footfall should all be boosting sales. Last summer was a total washout, the wettest for decades. So it'll be interesting to see how results compare. On fundamentals, a 5% increase in full year turnover adds nearly £1m to revenues, around £420K to the bottom line at current margins if 43.7%. Yet we heard in the outlook statement that margins are improved. Those projections assume central admin costs are stable (the same outlook statement highlights improving costs too). Such a performance would take full year profit before tax up to around £0.7m. A 10% revenue increase ought to take pre-tax profit over £1m and EBITDA close to £1.5m. That's 1 extra person through the door for every 10 customers served. Or average spend up by 5% and footfall up by 5%. I'm not saying it'll happen - just illustrating how on good margins and high turnover, a small % trading improvement can make a huge difference to the bottom line. Apply an sector average PE of 12 on £800k earnings, and we're looking at the SP around 17-18p. If the market starts to factor in further growth to the store footprint then we start to look at a higher SP still. That kind of money could see CRAW open a new store every six months and deliver substantial dividend growth, all from positive cashflow. A fair bit of hypothesising on my part in this post ... but all within reason IMO. With results due in a few weeks we should get a good sense of how things are progressing. DYOR.
Still on the low end of its long term chart, but the company is in its best ever shape since its listing. I've been holding about 10 months now, and patience starting to pay off. Next ex div date will depend on whether they choose to pay an interim dividend. I'm not expecting one. However the big story here is about the company returning to a level of profit (in a net cash position now) where they can grow the business organically from cashflow. That's what will drive the SP from here as the market starts to look at future potential. All IMO
Hi polarhare. Nice to have someone else on the discussion board. There are numerous reasons I like this one, and it really stands apart from the usual AIM dross: * strong cash generation * debt reduction (and the costs invested in the new Derby store) from positive cashflow. * From net liability of 900K to net cash in 2 to 3 years * last funds raised at 17p, no dilution since * director buying * business performance improving * c.19m GBP turnover, and top line improvement will fall to the bottom line with good gross margins around 44%. * brand loyalty and recognition in its regions of operation * remained strongly cash generative through the recession * sells food - easy to understand, and everyone has to eat (i.e stable market for its wares) * strong, reputable chairman * maiden dividend (very good yield), which is forecast to grow * capitalised at just 3.4m GBP (low quantity of shares in issue, as it doesn't issue tem like confetti as per many loss making AIM-listed businesses). I could go on, but that about covers it.
It's very good. Not much of a southward deviation there polarhare. Onwards and upwards into double figures.
... holding for a double figure share price.
Next results start of October. But this could rerate very quickly now IMO.
at 5p per share, the latest 0.25p forecast dividend yield is still a very good 5%. The ISA wrapper provides a good shelter for this, but to me the share has simply looked undervalued for some time, and the forthcoming set of results should be good (judging by recent RNSs)
Nice to see demand for Crawshaws shares today. Still a lowly valuation IMO at a sub £3m market cap - given the dividend, cash generation, etc. DYOR
Well, summer's cooking - and plenty of stories about in the press about quantities of sausages and burgers sold at the supermarkets. BBQ meat sales at Crawshaws should be benefitting, which is great after the very positive updates recently. 4.3p v 4.75p real spread right now. Still at just a £2.46m market cap here.
More of this please Crawshaws - building a few relationships with local press can work wonders. Free coverage, and often much more effective than paid for advertising: http://thisisderbyshire.co.uk/story.html?aid=19494555 Reasons to be cheerful as the sun promises to keep shining NO NEED to put away the barbecues and sunglasses just yet... The warm weather looks set to continue and companies across the county are having to keep up with demand on summer items. The Met Office has confirmed that the current heat wave is likely to be the longest spell of warm and settled UK summer weather since July 2006, which saw temperatures soar beyond 28C in many areas ... Nick Grahame, chief forecaster at the Met Office, said: "We have high pressure over the UK at the moment which normally brings us fine and settled weather at this time of year. The current outlook suggests this may be dominating our weather through the week and possibly towards the middle of July." ... ... And the barbecues are continuing this week with Crawshaws butchers in the Westfield Centre seeing high sales in seasoned barbecue meats yesterday.
Nice to see. Return to 8-12p range a strong possibility now the business is performing well post-pasty tax uncertainty etc.