Why I like Atlantic Lithium...26 Jan 2022 12:58
If you have just heard about Atlantic Lithium Limited (ALL) and wondered what the fuss is all about here are my slightly biased views:
- ALL has a flagship Ewoyaa project ongoing in Ghana, it has vast proven lithium resources
- Only 13km2 of 560km2 tenure portfolio drilled to date in Ghana plus 774km2 (undrilled in Côte d’Ivoire)
- Significant potential to grow resource base within proven Li pegmatite field
- Further discoveries will extend Ewoyaa projected mine life of 11.4 years (highly likely)
- Strong Community programmes and engagement – plus a very supportive Government
- 98% Ghanaian and Ivoirian employment = low carbon footprint
- Ghana has 1.58GW of hydro capacity – green energy adjacent to deposit footprint
- High grade SC6 (Lithium Spodumene Concentrate 6%) with low contaminants
- Target production projected end 2023 (but experience tells you more likely H1 2024)
- Projected Annual Production 299,000tpa of SC6
- Average Life of Mine Opex in Ghana US$249/t (after by-product credits)
- Forecasted SC6 long-term price of circa US$1,000/t = huge netbacks to ALL at these prices
- Payback >1 year and SC6 prices look like they will be a lot higher than published forecasts
- 110km (sealed road) from project footprint to Takoradi port
- Takoradi being re-developed as a major West African oil, gas and bulk minerals hub
- Piedmont Lithium Limited (PLL) has a 9.91% stake in ALL
- Offtake Agreement (US$103m) for 50% of the annual SC6 production from Ewoyaa mine only (free carry for ALL)
- Leaving ALL with an unencumbered right to place the remaining 50% of Ewoyaa’s and 100% of any other production
- Cheaper to ship SC6 from Ghana to Carolina (PLL processing facility) than from Quebec
- PLL facing community and environmental issues in the US and Canada causing delays
- PLL has entered into supply contract with Tesla plus has relationship with other US based auto makers
- No further requirement for funding and dilution for ALL
- ALL retains 100% Côte d’Ivoire lithium assets
- Cash circa US$20m available for future growth initiatives
- Lithium supply / demand with be in deficit for many years to come underpinning prices
- With its 50% share of Ewoyaa production – this alone makes ALL an attractive takeover target for downstream customers
- ALL will either be bought out at a large premium or will make huge profits from production
What can go wrong?
- WW3 (Russia / US get angry)
- Ghana Coup (stable at the moment, but it's Africa...)
- PLL get cold feed and pull out of Ewoyaa deal (highly unlikely)
- Lithium prices itself out of EV battery market (but new technology would take time to develop >7 years)
I own many shares here, so of course my opinions are slightly biased, DYOR.
Holding shares in ALL will be a win win. I continue to buy the dips.
AIMHO