Member Info for Chinasyndrome

Enid, get back on your Meds, your are becoming irrational again !
Where do you think LCM are going to get their feed from ? Certainly not RBW who have had an ESG melt down with the Burundi Government, and not Mkango who plan to eventually set up their own Magnet facility in competition ! Peak are still 3-4 years away at least, the Canadians are going to be supplying all their production to the Yanks.

The ONLY company outside China with any prospect of delivering Refined RE's to LCM within the next five years is Pensana.

Heaven knows ! Songwe hill is miles from anywhere, transport costs are going to be astronomical ! And while we know that they have Thorium there (early reports said high levels), nothing has been published to say how they plan to deal with it. Then I get very suspicious of Company presentations that find things like the availability of "Electronic weighbridges" and "Broadband Internet" significant enough to use as Report "Fillings" !!

Dumbo, is that you promoting Makango on our Telegraph forum ?

Yes there are plenty of RE's out there, But you said 20 better deposits, You FAIL to be able to name just five.

I can't think of anything that you have said on this forum that has proven to be substantive ?
If you are being paid to be a Down ramper, you are FAILING DISMALLY !

Enid/DP, As you so fondly regurgitate, making false statements is a No no ~ So please list just five of your twenty new prospects out there which have reserves greater than Pensana's and could conceivably be brought into production within five years ? which excludes GGG and TomTor,

Thanks Hogsnipe, that surprises me as I see quite a few similarities in the raw data trend
Both have a peak to start with
Both take a dive , although PRE's was much deeper ~ then level out somewhat
Both then start to ratchet up ~

Anyhow time will tell,

Hi Hogsnipe, That looks like the current LYC graph ?

My fault, What I am trying to compare is the last six months of Pensana current Chart with that of LYC for the period July 2010 and Dec 210 ie When Lynas were in construction and coincidently China had a bad Winter.

Hogsnipe, This is certainly going to test Chartists theory on Monday,

From their Bible "The Dragonfly should be verified by waiting for trend confirmation on the following day".
True Dragonflies are very rare since open, high, and closing prices are rarely ever the same. Successful traders will typically wait until the following day to verify the possibility of an uptrend after a Dragonfly.

Read more at: https://commodity.com/technical-analysis/dragonfly-doji/

Your thoughts Tony ?

You know what they say about people who offer unsolicited opinions on subjects that don't concern them and on which they know nothing about ?

You are truly a Legend in your own mind, Enid Sharples was a mere armature !

Great work Hogsnipe, Graphics at last :)
You might want to play around with comparing PRE's last six months with LYC Oct-March 2011,

Was that a Dragonfly Doji that formed yesterday ?

Theorist / Dumbo; Please explain why you are so concerned when you have no skin in the game ? If you are the dregs of the Phoebus/FireAnt FUD team you have missed your opportunity. If not you are mere Trolls

Dumbo, For Christ's sake Get back on your Meds,

Cheers, I was wondering on how you came up with that.

Not sure how applicable it is but I am aware of several Gold prospects found by junior exploration companies and then sold to the big boys to develop, Usually they were given an option of a 10% Royalty on revenue or a lump sum of 5% on the In-situ JORC Resource value. Most took the 5% to give themselves Operating Capital !

Hi Tony, Just an observation ~ You mentioned a value for LJ of 48p (Sept 2020), and that prices have now doubled. However I am not sure what you mean by value ? FV, EPS (pa) or EBIT ?

In the PFS the Concentrate was valued at $3821/tc with a production costs at $1323/tc, for a Margin of ~ US$2,500/tc,
The mine was scheduled to produce 56k/tc.pa with an indicated EBITDA of $150M/pa. which at 49p/share agrees with your 48p/share

Now, If we now use the current SMM price for 45%RE-Concentrate ( US$8,052/t ), and remembering ~ that the difference ie US$4231 is now all profit (as the cost of production is taken care of in the original $1323).

So 56kt x $4231 = $230M (GBP 168) or around an additional 76p per share, x 85% (Pre share) = 65p

Add that to your 48p and we get an EBIT of 113p/pa ! once a PE is added we are well on the way to GBP15/share

Anyhow this discussion is basically immaterial; as we won't be selling our concentrate to the Chinese at US$8,000 or even 10,000/t , it will be going to Saltend where once refined the 4,000t NdPr will be worth upwards of US$100,000/t and the other 8,000t of TREO could add up to a further US$43,000/t (Assuming it meets the SMM spec)

Charles, Wakey Wakey, Which Chinese price would that be, Yesterday's or today's ?
Seems the Chinese are playing catch up, that SMM US$100,000/t price will be "Ex-tax" by the end of this month !

Your ability to Predict anything seems to be failing rapidly !

Hi Joe,

Because, Charles/Thomas/ausheads all have their head up Xi's exhaust pipe. They are missing the entire point as to why the ROW is developing its own Rare Earth supply chain. Which is China can no longer be trusted ! not only because they threaten to weaponize RE's but also because they fail dismally to meet ESG, QA/QC and guaranteed supply Standards.

Why are they even bothering to quote the SMM Ex-Vat price for NdPrO is in itself a distraction; because it is not even remotely close to the price that the Chinese Refiners are willing to pay ROW miners for Concentrates. Without Saltend, Pensana would be lucky to get US$20.000/t for the Longonjo concentrate. Once the other mines see how much margin there is in Refining, China is going to find it hard to import raw materials !

As to the Economics of Longonjo, It was shown to be highly profitable in the PFS using 2019 TREC prices , That was well before Saltend was even thought of and before the prices for NdPrO doubled !

Charles, why are you yet again resurrecting Thomas's FAILED arguments re VAT and the prices quoted on SMM ?

Yes they do include VAT, because the Chinese charge 15% on all RE's exported, and that VAT only comes off when they export finished 'Manufactured' products. Any Magnet Manufacturer in Japan, the US or EU/UK is currently paying the full price, which today is around US$104,000/t for NdPrOxide. In fact the NdPr price in NY is closer to US$150,000/t due to China's current incapacity to produce due to their Power Cuts ! A situation that won't change till March next year unless they start importing and PAYING for Australian coal :)

Yes the technology might exist, BUT as with the bacterial leaching of Gold which has been around for at least 30 years there are problems that do not make it attractive. Breeding bugs is very environmentally dependent, a temperature difference of 1-2 degrees cuts propagation rates 90%, they are great at extracting low concentrations but put them in a rich ore and they get stuffed and go to sleep. Then there is the cost of mining the heaps and rehabilitating them once depleted ~ as the ionic clay boys are finding out you need to recover enough "Value" out of those low concentrations to pay for the whole exercise. Also you have to ask, of that 0.1%TREE what percentage is NdPr ? if they are lucky there could be 40%. Then consider that Fly Ash already has a commercial use / value ~ ie as a partial substitute for Cement and as a sub-base stabilizer for foundations.

Considering all of the above I doubt if it will become a commercially preferable source of NdPr for many many years !

History does not excuse their criminal act. If they ever get identified I for one will be pushing for Legal action to be taken.
Manipulation is an offense and in this case it did do a huge amount of damage to the Companies ability to raise finance.

That CR at 120 GBP should have been at 200GBP ! Hamilton and Thomas called the Dump before it started they are as guilty as hell.

Six months of it and we only just now learn the technical term !
Is there a term for "Pass the parcel" where the shorters sell between themselves while dropping the SP ?