Member Info for Chinasyndrome

Moot points

1) There is no need for prior disclosure or SH approval as Cascade is now putting their money into Sable, a foreign company not under FCA jurisdiction.

2) Even if there was, the company will have four months under DTR4, to include it in its financial reports, after the transaction is completed.

Tbow,

Point 1: OG did not suggest he Stated, a huge difference in the eyes of the Law.

Point 2: Even if it were true, he then leaves himself wide open to "Inside information rules' which I am sure the FCA would pursue.

Oscar Golf: You should be more careful what you State: "because it needed at least 75% of shareholder votes at the general meeting to be in favour of the sale and it didn't have sufficient shareholder support." Do you have any Proof that that is indeed True or even Factual?

I suggest you read: https://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/CommsLawB/2021/80.pdf

SG, discussion is good, but when you continue to repeat the assertion that my methodology is incorrect, AFTER I have stated that the outcome is indicative and that I keep all other variables in a fixed state while examining the effect that Debt/Equity mix has on eventual shareholder value is deceptive and I suspect malicious. NEVER have I said that my projections of NPV are in any way correct, they are there purely as a relative reference point.

As much as I enjoy constructive discussion, I note that you are not a PRE holder, so you are probably on here just to instill FUD, that puts you into my Troll classification, so on ignore you go.

I think many of you are confusing your roles as Shareholders with that of Strategic Investors. When you buy shares on Market, you are not investing in the construction of the Project, your investment is purely personal and can be withdrawn at any time that you choose to. Whereas Cascade and previous providers of the Capital ie Equity or Loans are basically carrying all of the associated 'Risk' with very limited means to exit. Also, Investments at OPCO and HOLDCO level only get to share their proportion of the NPV, the get no uplift from PE ratios. Those of you bemoaning a $150M Investment returning $750M (500% over 10 years) need to consider your own greed when you are expecting your $1.50 shares to reach $20 in 2-3 years.?

SG, just a couple of points on your post:

Firstly: Yes, as I have said previously, my analysis contains numerous assumptions that have not been RNS'ed recently, but it does take into account most of the known variables: - Production rates, Recoveries, Current prices, Tax rates, tax holidays, Debt/Equity splits, even a loan account schedule. And as I have said before the actual numbers are not actually critical for a comparison of different outcomes, just so long as I only adjust any two co-dependant variables ie the debt/equity mix, at a time. And yes, while my bottom line may perhaps be a little bullish, it is the proportional outcome that tells the story, and that story is that Cascades US$165m investment will result in a significant bottom-line improvement for Pensana shareholders.

For myself, and I assume for the vast majority of Investors, the mechanisms of the debt/equity structure are certainly interesting. But at the end of the day, I think we can all agree that the only reason we are all invested here, is to make money?

Every BOD's primary objective is to 'Add Value', IMO this transaction does exactly that.

SG, In your look-through analysis, are you factoring in that with this new arrangement, Cascade will now be paying 38.2% towards all forward Finance and OPEX costs? and that this cash injection will probably enable LJ to be nearly 50% more efficient ie profitable, due to the much higher recovery rates which can be achieved by optimising the NdPr/DyTb circuits with this money. Yes, PRE Investors will see a reduction in their cut of the pie, from ~ 50% to 42% but that Pie will have grown from US$1.6B to US$2.87B (when all other variables are held constant), which allows PRE to become cash positive in just one year rather than two.

SG, a) from what was said earlier Sable was 100% PRE, so now 61.8%; I think Mumbles has answered b) with Sable (PRE+Cas) 68.2% leaving FSDEA & others with 31.8% c) Your guess is as good as mine, but it looks like the Market does not delve deeper than the PRE equity level, they seem to be ignoring the US$150M that Cascade are injecting into Sable, and they are certainly not attributing any 'Enterprise' value to the mine or deposit, as yet.

Fair points, but I think you missed my point. It does not matter what all of those variables are, and yes each will should have his own best guess in the absence of hard data. Once you have a line of Net Revenues and so long as you keep all other variable static, you can play around with various Debt/Equity percentages and study the effect that they have on Net Profits.

Tiger, there still is however a ~ Meeting,

SG, Why would anybody build a model with built in Bias for their own use ? that would totally defeat the purpose.

A Financial model is simply a mathematical representation. 2x2=4, or A+B=C. Even if you don't exactly know most of the variables, so long as the maths is correct you can do 'what - if' analysis, on any two known dependant variables, in this case SOI and % equity, to see what effect they will have on the final outcome.

You claim to be a StockGenius, how can that be if you don't thoroughly analyze a Project's fundamentals? You should know by now that it is futile basing your investment decisions on the sentimental opinions and garbage that you read on Forums or in the Press; you only have to look at your mate Tbow's history in stock picking to see that!

You forget, EXIM will be providing the Debt Guarantee,

As I said to tbow, build a comprehensive financial model and plug in all the variables, you can then play around with the different scenarios to determine the various final outcomes to the bottom lines.

StockGenius, Try expanding your thinking beyond the immediate news; Cascade taking a 38.2% share in Sable means that they are also taking a 26.13% share of the forward Ozango Debt.

Tbow, sorry no free lunches for you, I don't feed trolls, they always bite the hand that feeds them! If you are such a smart anal-ist try building your own financial model, there are only about 30+ variables that need to be discovered.

CT, Sorry to upset your gloating, After a comprehensive analysis of this new structure, Pensana Shareholders loose almost nothing, -1p on the EPS ~ The reduced holding in Sable is balanced by the smaller number of SOI and a reduction of Pensana's debt and interest liability.

Good points Mumbles, yes it makes a big difference in craneage and time if the Ball mill can go directly by road, I was unsure how good the roads are in that part of the World.

Theo, back again? how was your trip around Europe? whatever will your daughter say when she finds out that you persist in trolling people, I assume she knows about that last time you had to front Court.

Fair points which are always there to give everybody on site ulcers. But that Gantt chart they published is only a generalisation. They won't have to wait until all the piling is in before they can start assembling the kit, as Tim said the ball mill will be first followed by the Barite circuit, so it looks as if they are starting at the front end and will progress downstream. Bulk earthworks on the pad sound as if they are complete and have been tested. Looking at the latest satellite image confirms that the TSF is well under-way, and they only have to complete the first cell to commence commissioning. Various bits of kit still in advanced design/fabrication are all being sourced in countries with considerable expertise in those items Oz,SA,Spain and Brazil. Tim did not say who was doing the plumbing, tankage or conveyor systems but I would assume they can be handled in Angola given their Oil and Mining Industry experience.

One thing I did find surprising was that most of the kit is being transported by road from Jo'burg, rather than Cape Town to Lobito by ship, but looking at the distances there is not that huge difference.

Tbow, second time this week you have made a statement without referencing the source,

What is the 40M pounds that you are claiming is a donation? If you are referring to the upcoming Cascade issue, you still clearly do not understand the fundamentals of the transaction as Mumbles has quite clearly explained. Several times!

Sorry, but you are beginning to sound like a Troll.

A very good point Kutzzzz, Whoever is behind Cascade will have their own reputation to consider/protect, having a bid rejected would be highly embarrassing.

Tbow, what meeting would that be ?