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Correct, there are no promises other than achieving full recruitment in the SCIB1 Cohort.
My list is to point out how many irons are in the fire. Every item listed is capable of landing at any time.
Scancell’s Full Year is the end of April, you would expect that they will be working towards bringing at least one piece of major news into this years accounts.
Will we see any news prior to the anticipated pre-AACR Presentation on the 7th April ?
Here are some candidates that could materialise before the end of next week.
Obviously number one, GenMab to go ahead with a Phase 1 with our GlyMab Target.
GenMab agree a new deal for another GlyMab.
MHRA approve a move to allow Modi1 plus CPI to treat First Line Patients with Renal Cancer.
MHRA approve the addition of cancer target to the ModiFY Trial where the standard of care is a Duplet of Checkpoints.
The six month Evaluation as announced by RNS in July 2024 ( 8 months ago ), should be completed and close to a decision.
Remote but possible interest / deal for AbidiMab or the same for GlyMab.
All of the above could land just prior to Scancell’s Year End.
I’m interested to know if there are any other left field possibilities.
Violindog
if the presentation is preceeded by an RNS Update on the 5th April I would expect many of us will be getting some shares tucked away in our 2024 ISA's accounts the following week.
The SP at 10.5p is undervalued so anything that suggest Scancell is moving closer to that Registration Trial meaning they can achieve a commercialised Immunobody drug in the future, will send the SP higher. The more real that possibility becomes the greater the probability of major pharma wanting to own it outright.
AvidiMab is as yet 'unproven'. We wait for the first validation from a third party.
We are waiting on GenMab.
We are waiting for iSCIB+
We are waiting for the ModiFY trial update.
We are waiting for another deal for GlyMAbs
And finally we are waiting for Lindy's presentation in two weeks time.
Such a lot to land in 2024.
@magnetmagnetism
It’s not the shareprice it’s the Market Capitalisation which currently stands at £95 million.
Scancell has been much higher in value but those peaks were not sustainable without major news underpinning the larger MarketCap.
What we do know is that our CEO is about to do a 10 minute presentation at the AACR Conference in San Diego on the 7th April.
Both the AACR heading for that presentation and the Scancell heading do suggest that we are about to receive a more up to date report on the SCOPE Trial.
Things like how many patients have now been enrolled, how many have had their initial ‘needle free’ injections, how many have reached 1st Scan and most importantly what the ORR currently stands at. Anything above 70% is on target, the excitement will be if it is still over 80%.
Due to how jittery the markets are I would think that there are many people watching Scancell and waiting for some solid news.
If that does happen early April the SP will respond.
Many of these deals arrive when there has already been a joint programme running.
This deal is a result of those two companies working closely together and Astra has fully appreciated what Fusion Pharma have created and the depth of the pipeline.
Once the SCOPE trial has reached the data threshold to begin the Registration Trial we should see a Partner emerge and that could lead to this kind of deal in 18 months to two years from now.
For balance that is just Immunobody we have three other Platforms.
Ray
AvidiMab bolted on to Checkpoints that would be a £1 a share on its own.
If any of us is feeling down we should just contemplate that concept becoming reality. If that doesn’t lift your spirits nothing would.
This has been said before, ‘ we are on the cusp of Scancell’s first domino dropping and there could be many to follow ‘.
@violindog
Nope not a word, but that's what NDA's do.
We will not know until the evaluation is complete and a deal is struck.
Could happen any day and if it does that will be a big step forward for AvidiMab and Scancell. 🤞
The steps forward for AvidiMab :
Proof of Concept ✔️ Lab Work
In Human Trial ( Tox Safety ) ✔️ Covidity
Proof of Enhanced Avidity of an existing Mab ? ( Taking Place )
There must be NDA’s in place and Third Party lab trials happening right now.
What we are waiting for is just one of the evaluations to be successful and the first deal over the line. When that happens there will be more global interest.
Get that first one done and we are off to the races.
Regards to an offer being made, we have been told a few times that Cancer Vaccines are still on the ‘Cautious’ list of big pharma.
Our Chairman pointed out at the AGM that Big Pharma would rather pay more than get in pre-data and fall flat on their face.
All the Pre-Clinical deals we hear of are for well established drugs or very well understood Mabs.
Scancell is a pioneer and if successful will disrupt the established checkpoint dominance and eventually create new markets as they develop elements of their four platforms.
My opinion for what it’s worth is that continued positive data from the SCOPE trial, whether it’s SCIB1 or iSCIB+, will bring in a major partner or that elusive Offer for the platform.
Until our platforms produce the required level of positive data there will not be any major Interest or Offers, but there will be many suitors keeping a close watch on every Scancell announcement.
AvidiMab being used in the Covidity trial at least reassured that it was a safe addition.
It has real world benefits for many Mabs that have shown great promise but are just not potent enough on their own.
There must be some collaborations that are currently testing AvidiMabs attributes and it needs one of those to turn into a deal to spark a wider audience.
I think you also have a valid point about iSCIB+ but I would guess that Scancell will have made enough lab observations to be able to distinguish between the clinical advantages of the extra epitopes and the uplift in potency gained by adding AvidiMab.
At the last SCOPE update 13 patients had reached their scan and the data showed that 11 of those 13 had a response.
Does anyone know or could make a decent guess as to how many patients are likely to have reached the scan / data readout by the end of March ?
I know we won’t be anywhere near the 27 out of 34 goal line but could that figure be over 20 patients by then ?
Hi Violindog
There will be a milestone payment when GenMab have approval to begin a Phase1 Trial.
I know where you are coming from as Lindy did say that the larger milestones come at the backend of the deal.
I do think that there will be news concerning GenMab quite soon, where quite soon means by May or June this year.
A Haribo rocket….
‘Oh he of little faith’
If he does get a whiff of the SP increasing he will definitely give us the benefit of his wisdom. Can’t wait, it will be a sign of good things to come, like a returning comet.
Hi C11
I agree that the GenMab news has the potential to drop at anytime. Not only a milestone but LD also suggested their enquiry to take on another Mab or Target of.
We have the 6 month evaluation from last June meaning that is also a potential next news candidate. From the recent RNS's and news of conference presentations it does look as though we will see reports on both trials early in April.
Lots of potential news by the end of April, how these affect sentiment is anyone's guess but the quality of the data being shared will determine the direction.
My guess is SP in an upwards tragectory. 🤞
If Scancell seek to bring in the £40m or however much it will cost to complete a registration trial, Redmile may stay out of that raising and allow another large investor a seat at the table.
If that came to pass Redmile could convert and hold the shares at a percentage below the mandatory offer threshold.
I've not done any serious calculations rather just putting forward this idea as a possible way Redmile can keep there prominent shareholding and await a much larger deal once registration is either achieved or about to be achieved.
I think BMS are a very strong candidate to acquire Immunobody as a platform if that registration trial successfully completes.
Hi TF
The fact that the title of Lindy's presentation includes a 'MODI1 Update' does suggest that it will include data that is fuller than the brief mention in the January Interim Report.
That's how I read it anyway.
Additional to the late April Conference.
Immuno-Oncology Summit Europe 23rd & 24th April 2024.
Day 1 @ 14.45 Lindy Durrant
'Clinical Update on the DC Targeting Melanoma Vaccine, SCIB1 and Modi1 Vaccine Targeting Citrullination'
My presumption is that this will contain some new data, it doesn't say that it will but 'Clinical Update' is a perfectly good clue for me.
Chester.