Member Info for chester18

Hi B2HS2L

Although what you have outlined is not ideal short term it does show that they are mindful of preserving cash. Many companies come to the market for funds time and time again.
They then spend the cash without any discipline. I'm sure once the manufacturing and sales grow above costs and achieve good yearly profits, all those tasks will be found an employee with the relevant skills.

The management / board of directors have shown they know what their doing. Buying CellRight was a ballsy thing to do and they took full advantage of the money font that was Woodford Investments.

So have faith, once we get the RNS that seals the finances it's all down to how quickly can they ramp up the laboratory processing.

Chester.

Thanks B2HS2L

That's excellent research into all the recent announcements regarding the new facilities.
It stitches together all the various threads so we can understand what are the companies expectations and shows that they have a solid game plan.

I agree that some of these things are on hold until the funding is sorted out. It has to be that way but the sooner the better and the nearer they will be to their goal of breakeven.

Let's hope that we now climb steadily from this point .

Chester.

Chillll

I agree a very big question but when the sp was 0.9p I said it was very possible that by the end of the year we would be at 2.2p minimum and very likely between 3 -5p.
The current MCap is £14m which is tiny compared to the potential market that TRX are currently disrupting.

To me it all comes down to what can we physically produce once the new manufacturing unit is fitted out and in full swing.
I don't think that will happen in time this year to massively increase the 2020 turnover.

So my 'two pence worth' is a modest growth this year £18 -20m T/O, Market Cap a minimum of £30m and so the SP at 2.5p ish.
But, 2021 would be set up for a return to 5p or 6p.

I would very much appreciate some other views on the subject.

Chester.

So the Cyber Attack only cost a few days production which is a big relief. All our dark thoughts evaporated with that RNS.

Turning our attention onto the funding which is still most likely MidCaps £20m. As everyone has said once that cat is out of the bag we can all concentrate on what are the possible numbers by the end of 2020.

Turnover budget for 2019 was circa £18m but as we know manufacturing bottlenecks held up production so only £13m was achieved, which was still a solid 12% growth.
2020 has now got to be viewed as £18m minimum given the green light to spend some capital on infrastructure.

Let's presume we do hit £18m whilst also implementing the extra manufacturing and training up the staff, what SP should we expect and what MCap?

We need to discuss because the rise in the sp will not be a straight upwards line so if we have a feeling for where we are heading it will help calm the nerves as the 10% traders and MMs do their stuff.....

Chester.

Biohunter

You can have my shares 42,000 of them, they are already on the market.
You know what they say, once bitten twice shy, well I've been bitten twice by VRP and I think I'm well within my rights not to risk being bitten again.

So good luck with your theory I hope it works out for you and for all long term holders who may have more tolerance than myself.

Chester.
( I will not post again ).

To late for that now H,

Doesn't matter what happens in the future I'm going to pastures new.

Chester.

I bought into the message pumped out by Verona Pharma and taking everything at face value believed that the recent trial announcement would be greeted with huge positivity. To be let down by there being no partner for phase III and also be told, by the way, we need £120 million of new funding was a kick in the teeth to me and all long term shareholders.

I feel todays RNS means it's time to give up on the dream of us private investors ever seeing value. The new CEO and CFO are there to do what ever it takes to look after the Institutional Investors money not us PI's.

Chester.

Woodstock 1970,

My best wishes to you on your 50th birthday.

It would be good to hear something regarding the cyber attack but please don't go upsetting your birthday, if they say they are not at liberty to discuss.

We would all appreciate you finding out some interesting snippet but I'm sure we would all rather you had a calm day ending with a nice meal and bottle of fine wine.

Chester.

What a brilliant piece of news to greet us as Fridays update was met with 'jam tomorrow ' comments. Well it wasn't tomorrow it was 'jam after the weekend' .........ha ha.

It's just fantastic to finally move properly towards the clinic, just watch an appropriate patient will now also be approved in the Nottingham trial.

Time for Scancell to shine.

Chester.

Newcrest will be thinking of their own shareholders not GGPs. I'm asking if they will have achieved the 40% threshold in time to make a big thing of it mid February.

Plus it will without doubt lead to another surge in our SP.

Chester.

I think I'm right in saying that Newcrest issue their yearly update in February. If that is the case will they have done enough drilling or should I say spent enough money, to announce that they have reach 40% ownership in Hav?

Chester.

If there is a fund raising, which I doubt as my money is still on MidCap, I hope us private investors are given the opportunity to participate. Buying shares from the market is one thing but actually putting working capital into a company you believe in is a far better feeling.

Chester.

I've posted this a couple of times but it's even more relevant considering the drop in price.

Here's a question that will help focus your attention on why anything around 1.1p a share is the bargain of a lifetime.
Let's presume there is a fire sale:

What would the various parts of TRX go for?

A) DemaPure, an FDA approved, clinically proven to be safe, cost effective and clinically desired regenerative tissue product.
What is the value of IP, the Patents, the processing plant processing IP and the current growing customer base.
What shall we put £20M, £30M? It's got to be up there in the tens of millions.
B) The heart valve replacement, GMB V joint venture in Germany / Europe. £2M min.
C) SurgiPure XD, FDA approved, proven to be safe just as DermaPure and again all the IP, Patents and customer base. £10M / £15M
D) OrthoPure XT once approved £10m min.
E) Then add all the CellRight BioRinse tech, IP, Patents and signed up contacts. TRX paid £26M in 2017 so let's just say that three years later it's still only worth what was paid.

So even if the rug was pulled from under us the piece parts of the TRX group has to be in excess of £70 / £80Million.

In other words 6p a share, so when we get the news about production is back up and running and the decision on the finance has finally been made, that 6p per share has to be the first re-rate position. Even if there was an attempted takeover the price would have to reflect those valuations.

This is why the share is a tremendous opportunity and investment.

All my own opinion but I've tried to keep the values sensible and updated the text in light of the latest trading update and the cyber attack. Any comments and other opinions are most welcome.

Chester.

I don't post a lot on this board due to the fact their is a fantastic group of knowledgeable of poster. Without which I may not have accumulated so many shares. So may I say thank you to all of the honest and straight forward posters on this board your confidence and understanding in GGPs management allowed me to trust that there would be a positive outcome.

Chester.

Most important comment on that story is that they would not comment on the Non-Quoted stocks. Those must be the illiquid share holdings not AIM stocks or TRX.

Chester.

My point being that it's still odds on that MidCap will provide the necessary funds.

The other side if your point is that its somebody in the know which I very much doubt.

It's all semantics, if we knew how this is all going to turn out we would be very quietly amassing shares not discussing it on here.

Chester.

That would be a gamble.....

I agree we can't know for sure but I would be very surprised :

A) if there were another holder of shares that would take that size of hit to dump 8.8m shares. The price was nowhere near a penny at the time of that trade so they sold at the best price the MMs were prepared to give.

B) TRX has been massively liquid so why would Link have not taken advantage. They could very easily move 200m shares over the last few weeks.

C) if Link still have a sizeable holding, say 100m shares, then why ?
Do the new managers of the fund think the shares going to be worth more next week.

No matter how you stack it up the only thing that makes us question if they are still in or not is the lack of a TR1.

To be honest I'll be happier when we actually know what Link still hold or do not hold and the funding has been dealt with.

I'm calling my share holding the
'Patient Capital Five Year Chester Income Bond'.......lol

That 8.8 million sell was a large trade but the hit they took on the price was huge. That must have been a big chunk of what was left in Links hands.

I was amazed that the price came down so fast yesterday and know we know why....

Chester.

Morning C7

Last years interim report was on the 31st January so I'm presuming that we will awake to an RNS in the morning.

But, what nuggets of information can we expect over and above the state of the bank account?

Chester.