Member Info for CheshireLad

Funny how the worst turn up after 10:00am GMT, I do wonder where they are actually based?

GLA

I read it as "reaching contractual settlements" as actually completed, done, settled, capital inbound. If there was an element of doubt in that, or, not fully settled, the wording would've been absolutely different and a little more vague. It appears the TenneT cash advance is delayed until new year, and likely will be combined as a advisory note when the 2nd announcement is rubber stamped. The German side of the project will not want to lose face, and although all are facing financial constraints, the cash advance will land, the project is a no brainier and the German and Dutch know this only to well after the turn of world macro events over the past year and a half. Plus they won't want to be upstaged by the British at COP28, although RWE has some of that business, oh yer and Masdar.

GLA

It will be like a flight of stairs on the way up, 5p a time, but who knows what the timeframe will be? Based on this morning "kitchen sink" RNS, it might be a bit quicker than some think, as they will not want to leave themselves open now the information they obviously had to hand is now rightly in the public view and glare of all interested stakeholders.

The shorts are now not the biggest fish in the pond. There is always someone bigger, better, stronger, and more wealthy than you.

GLA

.......and coincidently 50% of the earlier lows of this morning, funny that.

GLA

We could see 10% of share capital switch hands today, albeit it could be the same shares a few times. Nonetheless if reached that would be approx. 50% of shares on loan according to posts over the past week.

GLA

• Covenants not breached.

• FCF now highly likely in 2024

• Recognition of separation of non-core assets

• Recognition of possible separation/sale of all assets

• II or cornerstone investors could inject capital or give assurances to lenders

• Banks will be happy to negotiate an extension of credit lines and debt based on all the above

• This in part or full could all be cleared up by 20th, as new NED will commit a significant portion of time to supporting the Board for a limited period

GLA

Where

Correct that one is still up, good try to keep the negative narrative going though, although were the SP it doesn't really matter, the only thing that matters is what the Company says next, nothing more or less matters at this time.

GLA

Page message display:

"This isn't the page you're looking for"

GLA

Bob, this is the link which is down:

https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com/

GLA

I think the link has been taken down? I couldn't access it either, and also from stand-alone web search, not accessible.

GLA

Harry,

Apollo were not quoted £1.7 billion, Apollo offered £1.7 billion, news leaked and gave the SP a shot in the arm, but then decided to walk away.

Of course that was all after the Built Environment sale (at x 16 multiples) for a similar amount, which in fact was close the debt burden at the time. This offered assurances to creditors/covenants putting the balance sheet in better order, and had previously gave the SP a shot in the arm and then found it's level prior to the Apollo approach.

GLA

Assuming you've all seen this regarding Masdar & RWE:

https://www.cityam.com/cop28-rishi-sunak-unveils-massive-11bn-deal-for-uks-dogger-bank-wind-farm/

GLA

I agree, if at all required, and I'm highly skeptical, there are many other ways to strengthen the financial other than RI or D4E. The obligations of the BOD are clearly set out, my gut tells me if there is nothing in the weekend press that definitely and unequivocally states the facts and reasons for what we've witnessed with the SP, then, yes there could be nothing to worry about and sit tight. Alternatively, to improve the financials by way of not at the expense of both equity and bond holders, steps may already have been started many weeks ago and my bet is a part/full sell of a division. The same thing happened at WG, new CEO, put pressure on, force CEO hand (selling of Built Environment for many multiples x 16 = balance sheet corrected) but make hay whilst supposed confidential negotiations are happening, hence why no official communication is forthcoming. There are some similar companies and service providers to the fossil and renewable sector that do have cash to purchase, that's not even mentioning PE.

I have no knowledge of anything, as I'm not employed by PFC, I'm just comparing my own experience at WG. it's all very similar, so RI or D4E terms are bounded around as scare stories, when in fact something completely different may be happening, or even nothing at all, and BAU until the 20th.

Personally as a large equity holder who has been averaging down, I would be disappointed if it turns out that the PI lose out in a major way, but nothing is actually factually stating that, and also the more time goes by with no official word, the better it becomes, as the BOD and new CEO could be in very big trouble if proven they have held back material information that should've been in the public domain. This may come on Monday, if not, the plot thickens.

Good luck to all, and if struggling to comprehend the SP fall , take time out over the weekend, and hopefully get ready for a few positive surprises over the next few weeks.

FYI:

https://www.woodplc.com/news/latest-press-releases/2023/wood-builds-on-strong-partnership-with-equinor-securing-two-year-contract-extension-in-the-uk

GLA

IMHO, If we don't get any TR1-1 soon, the sensible conclusion is that PFC is getting taken out. The hedge funds are doing the softening up, both on retail holders, no doubt for their own benefit, and pressure on the board. It might not be as a straight take over and could just be a division at multiples of the current SP, however, where the SP is, why not the whole shooting match?

GLA

Great insight and overview regarding the way the world is moving. It's a good job we have these companies that can cover the solutions, projects, and operations required for both fossil and renewable energy. Make no mistake companies like UK based PFC & WG. are integral to the requirements of the wider world and the challenges we all will face as a species, and that is not overdramatic in any way.

PFC's (et al) employees are probably more important to the world and our way of life than doctors and nurses, definitely more important than politicians, advisors and lawyers. Therefore, to me it makes perfect sense as to why PE or a peer would be interested in PFC, regardless of debt. I know that one of the major reasons (not all though) why Apollo were interested in WG. was because of CCS. The thing with CCS, unlike with O&G, it can be beneficial at both smaller and scalable levels (including the by products that don't get stored) and can be virtually done anywhere, it's only currently that the re-purpose of old O&G reservoirs are advantageous and convenient locations to do so for the storage part, thus drawing on the engineering expertise that is already in situ at a local level. Therefore, who will be the winners in the future regarding CCS, the same sovereign state oligopolies we have now, or will westernized states, companies, including PE make an all out play for the tech and dominance, or, will there be room for all? It's unknown at this time but no doubt there will be a hell of a fight over the next 3 decades regarding this, and at this time PFC is at the forefront of this fight and should benefit from CCS in the not too distant future.

GLA

Mine must be Dumb Money then.

GLA

We are now in a closed period.......PFC is in my basket and ready to checked out sometime in the future, who knows when that will be?

NB: Most of the time, and for all companies, the nominal Director buys/awards can simply be overlooked. However, I've found, on rare occasions, and with hindsight through past experiences during my working life, that a subtle change of the date of the buys/awards can sometimes be telling of what's to come regarding business activities (both positive and negative). Therefore, I think everyone should pay more attention to them, but I admit only in combination with ones own other reasoning and data room analysis they can add, or give some kind of visibility to what cannot be seen at the time.

GLA

FYI:

https://www.petrofac.com/media/stories-and-opinion/adnoc-gas-delegation-recognises-petrofac-s-nationalisation-efforts-in-the-uae/

https://www.petrofac.com/where-we-operate/petrofac-in-the-middle-east/united-arab-emirates/

https://www.thenationalnews.com/climate/cop28/2023/11/22/uae-faces-risk-and-opportunity-in-green-energy-transition/

https://www.petrofac.com/media/news/petrofac-receives-the-gold-seal-for-creating-sustainable-impact-in-the-uae/

https://www.petrofac.com/media/news/adnoc-gas-awards-petrofac-contract-for-landmark-carbon-capture-utilisation-and-storage-project/

https://www.petrofac.com/media/news/adnoc-awards-petrofac-us-700-million-epc-project/

GLA