Member Info for CheshireLad

FYI if you haven't already read whilst taking a breather from today:

https://www.cityam.com/the-hedge-fund-problem-too-many-billionaires-and-too-few-returns-for-investors/

Good summary of where hedge funds are at, and how they now operate versus the past.

GLA

Whether you want to concentrate on the debt or not is up to you, even the negative equity value that PC mentions. However, going back earlier this year and to now, and a little further in the past, the value gap here at PFC versus WG should close. Rule of thumb for me is PFC SP trades at 1/2 to 2/3 that of WG. WG currently sits at 160p, in the short-term there is value to be added to the PFC SP, at least another 100%, based on WG peer SP. Therefore, there is a lot of scope for all traders, whether daily, short, or long over the next few months. I hope, and it is purely a finger in the air, that we should be back to those WG SP ratios by 2024 Q1 end.

There should be reason that a 70p - 80p SP should not be the case, hopefully sooner, but with the attack the past few months going by so quickly, 2024 Q1 end will come around in a flash, macro political events may even be better by than, financial indicators should also start to be better with inflation, hopefully, and in general continuing on the downward trend. But we all know nothing happens in straight line, so be prepared for minor setback and stagnation, however, moving forward remember the old favorite, the trend should be our friend.

GLA

I think it will be fluid, and that's why Management have to keep the pressure on. It could be done levels and I agree for the next few months it might feel a little like two steps forward and one back. But there is always the unknown, and possibly that's why ADB was brought in, all done a bit more confidential and stop a leaky ship? If truly PFC are going to majorly pivot I would also expect some further leadership additions/changes in the next year, just going off what's happened/happening at WG.

GLA

Restructuring is underway, as disclosed, and reduced losses but no profit, that is a slight contradiction, as higher margins are then obviously generated, and over time....

How's that cross-disciplinary research going?

Everyone taking a breather at the moment, volume has slowed. Those that are in are in, and those that are short need to get in to cover, not immediately, but will try for an orderly exit over the next few weeks, they will have to have covered by the middle of January 2024 would be my guess?

It's going to interesting to see how they work and massage this one on their way out. PFC now have form for dropping two massive, and unexpected at the time, contract wins, imagine if a non-core asset agreement is in place by the middle of January 2024 (sale finalized by Easter 2024). PFC have shown when it really matters, it's a tight ship, but an agreement for a non-core sale, albeit not made public, will be known by more internal staff than a contract win, so watch the movements closely in the New Year, there will be no sudden spike, just a slow gradual increase, which, unfortunately is useful for those that are short.

GLA

Spoke to a colleague in a different part of WG, who knows some old colleagues now at PFC, their take was TenneT 2 was never in doubt, proven correct.

GLA

Well done PFCvet and I hope you have a lovely Christmas, New Year, and beyond. If we took emotion out of it, we'd all be bots. It's ok to get emotional, it just goes to show you care. I'd rather speak to someone who wears their heart on their sleeve, at least you know where you stand, and like a few on this board we have stood tall.

GLA

That would be risky, as the balance sheet can be corrected in other ways. Things change, and what was might not be in he future. I still think O&M will go, it's just not the correct time at the moment (meaning not needed due to their great work over the past few months). As PFC pivots I have no doubt it will be offloaded, watch out next year when the M&A season is upon us.

NB: 15 Million already before 10am

GLA

Time for more fuel...Petrotoast

GLA

Any thoughts on what total volume for today might be? I suspect not nearly as high as earlier this month as we have even more sticky hands thank before. The volume from now until the New Year should be interesting and at best healthy.

GLA

Was able to add a few, happy to now wait and choose my moments over the next few days.

GLA

Time for some fuel...Petroflakes or Petrobix

GLA

Looks like they've gone fishing for a few prior to the call, the MM's and hedge funds will be running every play in the book today and for the next few days. If you still intend to buy, try and find the dips, and hold well in to 2024.

GLA

Currently at the same uplift (69%) after the 1st TenneT announcement, although we are still 137% off those 83p highs from earlier in the year.

GLA

Nice little uplift in WG also, off the back of some new leadership announcements, seems the sector is back in vogue understanding that PFC & WG are so intrinsic to the energy transition, dare I say more important than than the banks and cannot be allowed to just disappear.

GLA

I'm going to add another 10% to my holding during the day, cannot buy at the moment but happy to wait.

GLA

Well well, congratulations to all that kept the faith and will continue to do so. This will rise at a steady pace as the shorts continue to manipulate and suppress. However, rest assured and with mental strength we should all feel lower anxiety levels over the Xmas period, as the CEO and board have shown true gumption in light of opportunistic chancers. A very good update and looking forward to watching the price action today knowing that the future looks bright as move forward in to 2024 and beyond. I still stand by my thought that a takeover is on the cards by the end of 2024, if that transpires, then whoever will have to pay much more, albeit with, I anticipate, a smaller agile Petrofac when that occurs.

GLA and don't set any stops for the foreseeable future.

Now that the NED (ADB) should've done his work, I'm expecting a short-term bridging loan arrangement to run for 6 months, this may be in conjunction and repackaged with current revolving credit facilities with the can kicked down the road on the main revolving credit facility, because of the recent body of future work that has been won, a nice easy rate of return for the lenders. It's not ideal as a higher rates will no doubt be agreed than would've been next year if the restructure of debt wasn't required until then, all pretty standard stuff, albeit some would have you believe a renegotiation of debt and revolving credit facilities never happens.

The upside being we will have assurances and bond provisions guaranteed. The bridging loan will be paid back in full, with receipts from closing out existing legacy work, no doubt some business unit/division sales, and receipt of further payments from the recently won and pending contacts. There should be NO requirement for dilution or D4E under any of these avenues or combination of both to correct the balance sheet.

The above does not require any ii or cornerstone investors making a surety payment, and of course that is also option, as is the announcement of a part/full takeover offer, however, as stated recently I expect this to happen in time once the balances sheet has been corrected, possibly after the bridging loan is fully repaid and non-core or core unit sales have been completed, clearing the decks for accurate offers based on enterprise value at that relevant time, timescales, possibly at the latest this time next year.

Will we see any large late trades?

GLA see you all bright and early tomorrow....that will be roughly around 02:00 am EST for some of you that are short, remember to cover up tonight if you've not already done so, tick tock