focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
I just want the correct value of my shares to be accordingly reflected. it's not and hasn't been, due in part to MM.
I've now added a few but kept some powder dry as I fear it will go lower, but overall good for my average, if, and when, the SP starts to reflect the correct value.
The governance at THG is crap, as rightly pointed out earlier. I just MM to:
- Shut up
- Do his job as a CEO of a Plc
- Read a blood y spreadsheet
- Post some better numbers
- Be polite, be courtesy, not rub people up the wrong way
- Don't pigeon hole a certain group (35%) of investors
- Concentrate on delivering value for ALL shareholders, including the 35%
- Not treat THG as his toy, because it's not anymore, he took the "fast money" at the IPO
GLA #putuporshutupmatt
A bit like Putin then
GLA #putuporshutupmatt
Any bid for PFC would not be £3.25 or equivalent value based on WG offer. It's a wrong assumption to make, why do you think they walked away from WG after doing the DD, then take a look at PFC and think about it a bit more, As much as I would like Apollo or any other PE to make an approach, rest assured at this moment it would not be £3.25. If you want to put a figure on it, then my guess would be £1.50. could be slightly higher if another big contact lands.
PFC and WG have mostly traded on a 1/2 to 2/3 value. PFC is back to 1/2 value of WG, it could gap up closer to 1/2 in the next month or so which takes PFC closer to 90p - 100p range, all things being equal. Then what we've recently see from PE bids from Apollo (with WG & THG) the premium on top is valued by the market at circa and additional 50%, applying the same logic with PFC making any likely bid at around £1.50ish. As much as I would like to see a larger premium placed on PFC I don't think it would happen, but happy to be proved wrong. Depends if PFC have any further contract news to divulge in the meantime? If Maverick is correct and there is a large buyer in the background it could be someone in the know regrading news, just like earlier this year a month before the TenneT win, or more shorts closing, or the start of something leading to a did/approach, we just don't know, and will never know until the RNS lands. Be realistic with thoughts of entertaining PE bids, it hasn't ended well for both WG & THG shareholders, of which I'm one. Fortunately, I shifted the majority of my WG and trading THG gains over here.
GLA
I wouldn't touch ASOS, to much debt, too much stock, with some of it being written off, and problems in the US.
BOO in a better position, not much debt, better margins, ethical issues mostly behind them. Still would wait till after results but might split BOO investment to up pre & post results.
Anyhow, THG top up taking place first thing tomorrow and throughout the week. I'm lucky my job enables me to keep a watchful eye on my investments, with nobody any the wiser ;-)
GLA #putuporshutupmatt
BOO looks good for an uplift regardless of results, especially if we have a hot UK summer, same logic applies for THG if its a good summer, so may see a natural THG SP uplift after the shenanigans the past few weeks. I want to get my average down in THG to around the current 60pish price, currently averaging 75p after IPO then sold post IPO uplift then made the mistake of buying back in in the £3 - £3.5 range, been averaging down ever since.
GLA #putuporshutupmatt
Ditto Manc, I'm the same, enough powder dry for another 30,000 shares give or take the price movements next week. It depends how BOO reacts to their results as may top up over there and split capital accordingly, better value long-term in THG than BOO, IMHO.
GLA #putuporshutupmatt
I think the best we can all do at this moment, and if funds allow, is buy more shares. From all the discussions and points it's clear we all have one consensus view, which ironically is the same as MM's, is that the value of THG whether that be as a whole or sum of parts is far in excess of where the SP is today. I've decided I'll be doubling my holding on Monday and if BOO has poor results and a knock on effect to THG, I'll buy more and wait it out and assess once again at the the next capital event.
Of all the points raised the most important factor is the unknown price that was offered by Apollo. Whether NDA;s or confidentiality agreements are used, they are used to protect a select few, Apollo, MM, 65% etc This is effectively legalised insider trading, especially when the SP is so far disconnected from the true value/price of the business. It makes you wonder why and can only bring scepticism from the 35% as to the reasons behind the none disclosure of the price. So if Apollo or a n other want to pick up THG or part of it for a low valuation the best thing I can do is buy more shares to mitigate an eventual low value capital event. It's a contradiction for MM to blame the 35% for the state of the SP, no Matt, it's his own poor performance and attitude to the city that has lowered the SP, which might well turn out to a stroke of genius on his behalf to a low capital event value is achieved if he then retains a modicum of control, it reeks of self-interest for the few and not the all. The responsibilities of the CEO are to take care of business and staff and ultimately enhance the value of any company, thus reflected in the SP. If the offers/bids are public record, then the SP would be reflecting or moving close to a truer value, and without that knowledge, that's how much MM thinks of the 35%. As stated he doesn't care about the individual PI who backed THG from the IPO who are largely underwater, as am I, and continue to average down, due in no small part to his own lack of empathy and lack of skill set required for a CEO of a publicly listed company.
The next 6 months are going to an eventful rollacoaster.
#putuporshutupmatt
GLA
I feel after the past few weeks we've all been through the mill, some good, some bad, some more still to come!
MM's social media posts are pure distraction tactics so he can hide from the poor performance and missed targets, classic narcissist personality disorder, blame everyone else but himself, and run the divide and conquer playbook, well at least give it a try because nothing else seems to be working. On reflection I still think there is no plan b but I'm hopeful for THG that within the next 1.5 years in some way shape or form the value of the company will eventually out? I'm nonplussed about the SP and will increase my stake two or three fold if we hit 50p. Apollo did see massive value in THG, they are no mugs, and will have all angles covered, the last publicly PE approach was wrong for THG, this approach is different, why, because it's Apollo. I've very recently spoken to a colleague who has had direct discussions with Apollo, and they were extremely impressed with their knowledge and the subject matters which interest them regarding WG. These are very complex engineering design solutions, their homework is second to none, their foresight is why who they are, and no stone is left unturned in their pursuit of value. I’m also aware of how they can go about extracting value in the most unlikely ways through the questions that have been put forward through the DD process at WG, they are very clued up and will have gamed out multiple strategies, for both WG and THG that we have not seen yet or even thought about, they are still in the game, and that is still clear from the takeover rules and form issuing. I’m not saying Apollo will eventually get their hands on WG or THG, my own opinion is they won’t. For WG the new leadership team are part way through their own company transformation and would likely prefer to see it through as one or with an industry peer, not PE. The same goes for THG, but I still believe at THG there is no plan b, but MM is not up to the job that is required on the road ahead, THG require a more level-headed pragmatic CEO, will that ever happen, possibly only after September? If nothing changes at THG in the short-term, I would like to see activist investors stirring the pot more than they have so far in order to facilitate a quicker transition and whilst the SP remains depressed, and at the moment it’s beneficial for MM and the 65%, it’s also an opportunity for activist investors to start buying. This is the start of the end for the long suffering, most not some, 35% shareholders.
#putuporshutupmatt #rollwithkelsoorspartabutnotmatt
His post comes across as crass and egotistical, but I suppose that's how you create a billion pound business, well not quite based on the SP today. They say blood is thicker than water, well money and loyalty is a similar relationship, If there is no plan B, except a little misdirection and hope, then the ties that bind will start to shift once September and beyond arrive, the 65% v 35% ratio will change, as money talks, when patience wanes.
Lets hope Kelso's recent assessment was on the ball regarding other interested parties, and that being the plan B, to play off against each other over the course of the next 6 months? I'm expecting a similar situation with Wood next week. It's a race against time for MM at THG & KG over at WG regarding how they keep Apollo on the hook for long enough, or a perception that Apollo are still interested in order to drive their own/alternative plan B's, which very may well turn out to be a different bidder or collaboration of sorts with another entity?
My personal view is MM is gone within a year, and he knows it. He may very be still at the helm, but his power and ego will be seriously diminished as some other bigger conglomerate or state backed fund will be pulling MM's strings, for however long they can put up with him. MM is a entrepreneur but not a visionary, and that's where he finds himself this evening, he needs help to see the wood from the trees, even through he virtue signals that he's personally invested more quite recently and from todays post signals he effectively turned down a very lucrative offer, with that offer potentially being very lucrative to a lot of the 35%. He does not acknowledge the fact that a lot of local private investors in the North West have backed him and continue to do so, albeit at the moment to their own expense. He also doesn't need his ego stroking anymore, any credit he had in the bank with the 35% is gone, lost, disappeared, just like he will be in a year. THG is a listed company, not a plaything for MM and his mates/cronies, what irks me the most is why the 35% are not privy to the bid or bids. If they had been publicly known, like with WG, then a material change in the SP will have materialized, albeit not as much as some would hope for. However, a higher SP at this moment does not benefit MM at the moment if other parties are interested which might or have indicated they would be happy to let him operate and run THG as he wishes. At the moment, or until September at least, the lower SP facilitates a MBO or RT.
Good luck to all still invested, as am I, we'll need it in the short-term, unless their is actually a credible plan B, which in my opinion there isn't, except playing for time and hoping beyond hope market, micro, and macro conditions improve to organically grow the SP and underpin MM's power base and bargaining position in the future for a full TO or majority buyout.
Digested the drop and after reading Dave's post watched the kettle boil for a bit and decided to add more, and will keep adding at these levels for however long they wish to push the price down, it would be rude not to take advantageous at these levels, if you are able. I'm trimmed down dramatically my position in WG in order to start a similar investment strategy that proved fruitful with WG, hoping for the same outcome here regarding an uplift. I feel for anyone caught on the recent spikes or more long term investors with higher averages than my own. I'm been adding for the future, looking at roughly 1.5 years time towards the end of 2024, and happy to sit back and continue adding when I feel there is value which will out in the timeframe I'm working towards. At this level even with all the micro & macro world events, I don't think at these levels the effect would be dramatic and when I speak of levels, I mean between 50p - 80p. I'm hopeful of 100% - 150% uplift to the current SP in the timeframe I've mentioned, happy to be proved wrong if it plays out earlier than the back end of 2024?
GLA
Turn & burn Mav.
GLA
Tree shake, in operation. Hold for gold.
GLA
Obviously it goes without saying Apollo will lowball, and like with what's happening over at WG. we may not be privy to that information for a while unless activists force all parties hands. It's a strange one personally for me as I work with WG. and have some insight regarding what's going on, but solely in respect of the function I work in, but no direct knowledge of the current projected trajectory of how it will play out there, but also I drive past the THG offices most days and have former colleagues who have gone to work for THG.
Apollo will lowball at 1.60 or 1.70ish and will set the bar at high 1.90s I suspect, but just my honest opinion. I hold both WG. & THG so would like some of the money Apollo wishes to spend to come my way......eventually. Certainly an interesting next 3-6 months on the cards for both. I'm sure we'll find out soon enough!
GLA and hold tight
Funny how the article mentions WG's peers. The CMD positioned WG in the same bracket, so WG obviously value themselves accordingly?
Why not hold both, it's a no brainer! All hell would break loose if a second bidder came in or WG and imagine if Apollo turned their attention to PFC. Now that would be the perfect storm, not for the shorts though.
GLA
If anyone takes anything from this article it's the part about the head count.
I see Scott is back as the price dips with a mantra regarding a deal might not happen? It could be a yes or a no, but then again it might be both, IMO. I'm Happy to play along to Scott.
Double down on Petrofac, similar position to Wood a while ago, PFC either will go bust or pop, you take your chances. I've taken a very small position, I can afford to lose over there and will monitor closely over the next 6 months.
Regards WG I'm still long and holding out for better things to come!
Do we think once WG. is or close to being finalized with Apollo that money, and eyes, will start moving and looking over here?
chin up & GLA