Member Info for CheshireLad

WG tanking last and this week, no coincidence shorts have increased their also. Being played, but both companies remain in demand, just look at the available jobs/roles here and at WG.

NB: WG has 300+ roles available in UAE alone

GLA

FYI:

https://carbonherald.com/new-collaboration-petrofac-and-aggregate-industries-to-explore-co2-capture/

https://www.oedigital.com/news/511152-skandi-emerald-ahts-set-for-petrofac-s-northern-endeavour-fpso-job

https://www.ogv.energy/news-item/asco-awarded-emergency-response-agreement-with-petrofac

GLA

That's the point, it never was a small company, and we hope in the future it will regain it's rightful place among the sector leaders.

Regarding POFCY, we have to give our American friends and subsidiaries the chance to offset their net short positions without disclosing their actual holding below any TR thresholds. Over the counter under the counter, MM's will help out anywhere they can make money, and with off the book trades there is gold in them hills.

GLA

Fidelity have seen value, but the value is longer term.

If the management team turn the company around, which appears the first green shoots are there, then the SP will naturally recover in time. Failing that and on the same progression, then you would have to think envious eyes would again be looking on and again have some Blue Horseshoe, who knows.

It's a hold all day long for me, but I now only hold a very small position, as I'm way over my exposure limits in PFC, albeit it's a pure binary play for me, I see greater uptick in PFC than WG, but that's not to say there won't be any uptick in WG, there may be, or there may not, time will tell.

GLA

If you want raw materials for all them products and semi-conductors, who are you gonna call?

If you want fossil fuels for all them products, who are you gonna call?

If you want fossil fuel energy, who are you gonna call?

If you want renewable energy, who are you gonna call?

If you want to change the climate (CCS), who are you gonna call?

GLA

Back from Davos and realized their plans must include EPC firms, without them we would have no society and the standard of living we all enjoy or aspire to. Meta, Google, Microsoft, Tesla, are nothing without EPC companies. The world relies on EPC companies to drive prosperity, there is nothing in life more sure than that.

GLA

Big jump at WG in the last 10 mins.

GLA

if wg acquired pfc that would mean roughly a combined group debt of about 1.2 billion but with a backlog of work of around 15 billion. it could work, but where would wg get the money for such an approach, thus adding to the debt pile and pushing it past 2 billion, *** packet thoughts, and somewhat a pipedream i would think....apollo is a different question though, if they are still sniffing around then i suspect either wg or pfc will make it public, no harm in getting that sp up for disgruntled investors, poor schroders if that happens.

gla

Thanks Paul, that's a good HEDGE article you present.

So are you going to state you are short in equities and long in bonds?

Thanks for the advice, but what's more important is the advice ADB is giving the senior leadership. I like to think, whether true or not, that ADB was onboarded in some sort of capacity not solely for his financial acumen, but also to keep a tight ship with only direct communications with the senior leadership team, loose lips sink ships and all that. It appears TK is fully aware of this, and as others have stated the larger shorts are now to a certain degree in the dark and are guessing, or at the very least trying to supress the SP long enough to either get out with a profit on the downside or if that's not attainable then average out that break even by going long for when the tide turns, which it will do before the major M&A season is upon us.

GLA

Fair value is £1.25 per share. That's based on all the considered variables in play with PFC, of which there are many!!!

I think I'm a tad conservative, but in a M&A scenario £1.25 is probably a starting punt to see how the land lies.

GLA

Yawn

GLA

The quote states simulations of 'at least' 600 billion CFA, and as per Harry's conversion 'at least' a billion $

GLA

FYI:

https://www.dakaractu.com/Petrofac-prestataire-de-Service-de-BP-C-est-l-expertise-locale-qui-est-sacrifiee-Moustapha-Diakhate_a243023.html

The provision of operational services for the GTA project entrusted to Petrofac, an English company, is the talk of the town. Indeed, Moustapha Diakhaté reveals: “BP has just awarded Petrofac, an English company specializing in oilfield services, with a super four-year contract for the provision of operational services – offshore and onshore – linked to the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim natural gas project. (GTA), located between Mauritania and Senegal. A hard blow, very hard for local operators and of course our local content."

According to the ex-Cons Spec PM-Expert and Infras Consultant, "With this contract, 60% of the services within the scope of local content are unduly entrusted to PETROFAC. Valued at least at 600 billion CFA francs according to the simulations, this leonine contract between English companies on our soil and our resources covers a wide range of services", he explains in a note used by Dakaractu.

The latter emphasizes that "it is local expertise that is sacrificed", because "among these services, we find the management and supervision of operations both on land (onshore) and at sea (offshore), the provision of qualified personnel, as well as the maintenance of equipment etc...."

GLA

Are we all assuming Schroders shares ended up with?

1) solely in retail PI's hands

2) a combination of retail PI's hands + shorters hedging both ways

3) part snapped up by existing cornerstone investor, with TR's still not disclosed

4) part snapped up by new cornerstone investor, with TR's still not disclosed

5) some of the above

6) all of the above

GLA

A bit fed up of the price manipulation and posted this on WG, coincidently under a subject matter of "Free Float". At least this first crappy week of 2024 is out of the way, couldn't really have gone much worse for PI's:

Hopefully in the not too distant future the market will realise and stop beating down important companies (like WG & PFC) because they can with any quasi semi-justified narrative they wish to run with. The market has to acknowledge that during the current and future renewable energy transition that these companies are intrinsically linked to a better future and the maintaining of our current standing of living alongside the expectations of us Humans.

This is not overegging or being melodramatic in the least. Who does the market actually expect to perform the requisite transition to a cleaner safer future, are we suddenly going to have a new breed of EPC experts, the answer is no. Companies like WG & PFC, et al will continue to be the go to guys to maintain our future standard of living.

Therefore, the market should place a higher value on these companies, thus attracting more investment, highlighting who is actually driving and going to perform future engineering challenges and change for ultimately the advancement as a species, and to push back on the old fossil fuel dogma surrounding these companies, which in part is still driving the ridiculous ESG investment driven model, as we have more than gone past both tipping points of acceptance and adoption of cleaner renewable technology and peak oil.

It's not too much to state that EPC providers are the backbone of the way civilization has advanced in the past and if we all want to continue to advance as a human species then the same EPC companies will be the ones to propel the future, and accordingly should have higher values attributed to them, due to their importance to human society past, present, and future.

GLA

Hopefully in the not too distant future the market will realise and stop beating down important companies (like WG & PFC) because they can with any quasi semi-justified narrative they wish to run with. The market has to acknowledge that during the current and future renewable energy transition that these companies are intrinsically linked to a better future and the maintaining of our current standing of living alongside the expectations of us Humans.

This is not overegging or being melodramatic in the least. Who does the market actually expect to perform the requisite transition to a cleaner safer future, are we suddenly going to have a new breed of EPC experts, the answer is no. Companies like WG & PFC, et al will continue to be the go to guys to maintain our future standard of living.

Therefore, the market should place a higher value on these companies, thus attracting more investment, highlighting who is actually driving and going to perform future engineering challenges and change for ultimately the advancement as a species, and to push back on the old fossil fuel dogma surrounding these companies, which in part is still driving the ridiculous ESG investment driven model, as we have more than gone past both tipping points of acceptance and adoption of cleaner renewable technology and peak oil.

It's not too much to state that EPC providers are the backbone of the way civilization has advanced in the past and if we all want to continue to advance as a human species then the same EPC companies will be the ones to propel the future, and accordingly should have higher values attributed to them, due to their importance to human society past, present, and future.

GLA

The company has to give the market something to think about, similar now at PFC. WG's trading update next week so there is a possibility there may be something in that which the marker is not anticipating, or there may not.

Only super positive news flow will permanently push this (and PFC) to new higher highs, but based on history it actually only be higher lows.

Whatever is to come in 2024, it surely has to be better than the past few years when the SP of companies like WG and PFC behave as AIM stocks on a daily basis.

GLA

Fidelity do seem confident enough for the future though.

GLA

Trading update next week.

&

As per Mary's post, Fidelity have upped their holding dramatically, probably had to push up the Bid to entice some sellers at higher levels to grab the shares to fill the orders for Fidelity? They certainly had some of mine as I trimmed a little at the higher price, but left a few for next week in case we get another rise in to the TU?

GLA

.......and also read this if you haven't already done so:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Flash-Boys-Michael-Lewis/dp/0141981032

GLA