We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
He's been buying shares:
https://soundcloud.com/thenakedtrader/radio-show-4 (from 1:18:54)
Both BEG and FRP get a (fairly brief) mention. But it was a positive mention.
Thanks to x54v on FRP board.
Toss up of a coin as to which share to buy yesterday. I called heads for BEG and after I bought the coin came down tails!. Hey ho.
CM
anon3,
no, I haven't been taken out. I didn't/haven't set a stop loss.
Strange how at times we are caught between the two opposites, selling and buying. Do I sell and cut my losses on the fear the share price will fall further, or do I do the opposite and look at it being a good buying opportunity?. If I sell, what price do I think the share price will fall to?. If I buy what price do I think it will rise to?. Sometimes it can be best to do nothing.
Halfpenny - yes; maybe the share price got ahead of itself and was ripe for a pull back. This is meant to be a counter cyclical stock so there should be at this time a degree of strength. And it does seem to be more volatile than one could expect.
Lets see how the afternoon goes.
gla
CM
Tell me about it!.
I need to stop looking at this and do something else. Haven't put a stop loss on BEG this time. Had I set another 10% it would have sold. Lets hope for some recovery from here.
As NT has said, surprisingly volatile, so buy on weakness. I thought I had yesterday at 109 p. Obviously not.
Good luck
CM
Sorry about that anon3. Let me try it another way:
Trade credit insurance:
Yet another massive bazooka looks to have been wheeled out (do bazookas have wheels? I thought they were shoulder-borne?) this morning - the Government is guaranteeing trade credit insurance;
... the Government will temporarily guarantee business-to-business transactions currently supported by Trade Credit Insurance, ensuring the majority of insurance coverage will be maintained across the market despite the challenges posed by Covid-19.
The guarantee will be delivered through a temporary reinsurance agreement to be agreed with insurers currently operating in the market. The scheme will cover trading by domestic firms and exporting firms and the intent is for agreements to be in place with insurers by end of this month.
For anyone not aware, trade credit insurance is where company A sells goods or services to company B, and raises an invoice requesting payment, which is usually paid about 30-60 days later. The trade credit insurance company guarantees that the invoice will be paid. If company B goes bust with the invoice unpaid, then the insurance company coughs up the money instead. It obviously charges a fee to company B for this insurance arrangement.
Unless company A is dealing with blue chips, then it can make sense to insure invoices, providing the fees are reasonable.
It is often the case that, when company Bs go bust, it can be because the trade credit insurer has withdrawn cover, knowing that company B is in financial trouble. Company As then refuse to deliver goods or services, because they cannot get insurance that their invoice will definitely be paid, and instead Company A demands cash up-front (pro forma invoice). This puts a cashflow squeeze on Company B, which has no choice but to cease trading and call in administrators like Begbies Traynor (LON:BEG) or Frp Advisory (LON:FRP) .
This guarantee by the UK Govt is a big deal. This will help oil the wheels of trade, and if badly handled, could also land the taxpayer with a substantial bill. Let's hope the UK Govt drives a hard bargain on fees, otherwise it could be a nicely lucrative deal for the trade credit insurance companies, if they're passing on the risk to the Govt.
It should certainly give a significant boost to UK companies. Therefore a positive move, providing risk is managed properly.
As my old solicitor used to remind me, "All sales are a gift until the invoice has been paid!"
I too have concern that there may be another down turn in the markets, which is why I stayed out for so long. And why I have been trying to be so careful as to where to buy into. I will again put a stop loss on this, once i have decided at what level.
I wish you and all, luck with other investments.
Stay well, stay safe
CM
Just read this article in stockopedia from today; mentioning BEG and FRP. It may give some reason for the fall in share price today. Hope the article can be read, apologies if it can't.
https://app.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-weds-13-may-2020-teg-606033?order=createdAt&sort=desc&mode=threaded
CM
Set a buy order yesterday at 110 p, it didn't execute.
I put a cheeky buy order in this morning at 109 p, with little thought that it would execute. Only checked on share late this afternoon. Surprised that it had executed and consequently I am back in with BEG. In fact, I could have set my buy order lower. Seems to have been a similar situation to Thursday last week when the share price dropped quickly. Things happened the other way around then for me and my stop loss triggered.
I have been looking at FRP but don't really want to risk more financially into the stock market. Who knows quite how things are going to turn out and although I am presently furloughed there is no guarantee I will still be employed longer term. Nor others who I may want to help out. Remains to be seen which is the better investment, BEG or FRP.
Hoping to have a better run this time.
GLA
CM
Good spot.
I agree with your sentiment. The report seems to be saying that the government have helped keep many companies afloat/alive by their actions, i.e putting them on life support in the hope that somehow many/a number of them will pull through. However, just about all the indications I have heard/read are saying there are going to be more insolvencies than we have seen previously, a lot more.
The governments' support will only be for so long. If one business goes under it is likely to effect others, supply etc. A bit like domino effect. Companies can only stay afloat for so long and if they were struggling before the virus then they will most definitely be struggling now. A lot of it will be with cash flow and with many companies shut down (including mine) then there is no cash flow, bar any on line sales.
As you say Anon3, things are only being delayed.
However, just possibly, article may give me an opportunity to buy in at a better price (on a totally selfish view).
Have a good weekend folks. Stay well, stay safe
CM
........and best picked up on any weakness.
Yes, I've just this moment read that. My mistake, I didn't. Lets see what happens today.
Thanks Anon3
CM
Unlucky - yes. These things can happen. With a drop like that it may be just a blip, a tree shake or it could be something more. I mean, it may have carried on falling. So many trades are algorhythmic (excuse the spelling) these days and I have never understood those apart from many of them seem to be done exactly at the same time for the same price and often in small numbers. Not sure there is a level playing field these days.
Listening to pm on Radio 4 this evening there was a reasonably lengthy article about insolvency, how many companies would be affected and what could be done with the sheer number that are bound to happen!. I thought if anybody is listening to this and was wondering where to invest then they would be looking at the like of BEG. Last buy back in price I could get this afternoon was 109.25, which I would have taken a couple of days ago.
Will I buy back in?. Quite possibly. I will see how things are tomorrow morning. In truth, I didn't have a huge amount invested but a loss of 10% is enough. Robbie Burns, the Naked Trader, who is very successful uses a 10% stop loss and is a great believer in cutting your losses before they get greater. He says if proved wrong then one can always buy back in. I need to do a little more research.
As you say Anon3, nothing goes up in a straight line. Maybe the share price was due to a retrace.
Good luck
CM
Why the sudden drop?......no idea, but it kicked my stop loss in and sold me out, when I only bought in yesterday. I use stop losses when I can't keep an eye on the share price all day. Set at 10% below what I paid i really didn't expect it to kick in right now, so soon. I can only think someone in the background may have a big buy order in and the market makers are trying to get the shares for them by shaking the tree. Have seen no buy order go through yet, so it may happen again. But that is only a guess. Really thought this one would be safe from a sudden plunge like that.
No obvious other reason.
Good luck
CM
.............I haven't invested here! I tried to short the market a few weeks ago and got my fingers burnt. I sat on the fence and have watched this climb from sub 90p to where it is now, waiting for it to fall just that little bit more.........which it hasn't. I, like many, feel as soon as I invest that will be the signal for the share price to fall..............I should say I do have a pretty good record on investments overall so not a complete basket case!.
I have also been looking for a competitor to BEG, which x54v you have kindly presented in the fool article. Doesn't mean I will invest of course; there are a lot of things to weigh up first. In my opinion there has to be more downward movement in shares from their present levels, but I have been thinking that for a month and more and it hasn't happened. I think to a degree prices have been rising due to 1. FOLO - fear of losing out and 2. interest rates are so very low that it just isn't worth saving - may as well spend it on goods before they inevitably go up with inflation.
Good luck one and all
Regards
CM
Good day BT. Unlike you it seems, I have plenty more time to post on here at present with being furloughed. No news as to when I will be returning to work. It has given me the chance to not only wind down and relax more but also to catch up on those jobs too eagerly put off. "Don't put off until tomorrow what you can put off until next week" had been my motto.
Regarding RR, one of the real problems that folk have with dementia is they can't really follow the repercussions of coronavirus, in particular the lock down and the lack of visits by friends and family. I am asked each time I phone if there is a chance I will visit. It is hard for both sides. At least there is a resemblance of a conversation though, which is something and that in itself makes for a "good day". As you say the virus takes no prisoners; I am sure we all know someone who has suffered or been lost to it.
Not too sure what to make of BoJo. He comes across as being some absent minded Uncle, who ever body thinks is a bit of a twit but for some strange reason rather like him. Often breaks into some Latin or refers to something out of Greek Mythology, as if anybody knows what the heck he is talking about or cares. Difficult to take him seriously. But hey, we voted him in, well, some one did...........then again wasn't much of a choice. Maybe Labour can start to be taken more seriously now that Corbyn has gone along with the likes (or should that be dislikes) of Dianne Abbott!. We may still be in the frying pan but at least we are not in the fire.
Then there is Trumpty Dumpty. Don't get me started!. The great "I AM". Spoiling for a fight. Really missing all his rallies no doubt. If he isn't the headline for a week or two, he will do something or say something so that he is. Wants to take acclaim for all that is right and non of the blame for anything that is wrong. Wanted to keep gun shops open as essential businesses during the virus. Pictures of long queues outside said shops - says it all. And we were worried about toilet rolls and pasta!.
My views of the general market haven't changed. GBG is holding up pretty well, at present and will probably continue to do so; until there is another downturn generally affecting most shares. It remains on my watchlist. There is an outside chance I will re-invest but not at these levels. Begbies Traynor is another company on my watchlist - insolvency company. Warren Buffet says there are only 2 rules to investing: Rule 1 - don't lose money, and Rule 2 - don't forget Rule1!. On that basis, at this particular time I would rather sit on the sidelines. I believe there is likely to be more downside before any true recovery, although I may well be wrong. To what level do folk believe the FTSE can rise to under the present and immediate future?, and on what basis?. I'd rather chill out in the garden with a cold beer right now, or should that be a Jura?!.
Stay safe, stay well one and all
Regards
CM
Good evening BT., good to see you are still posting.
Difficult times indeed. Heaven knows what is happening with the markets; they just don't make any sense. I have had my fingers burnt twice over the last 2 or 3 weeks by trying to short the FTSE, which on the face of it would make sense with the current state of affairs and the likely repurcussions. However, despite everything, the lockdown, folk not going out to spend money (if they have any), job losses, furloughing, companies likely to go bust, even major companies in severe difficulties the market has kept going up!. Are we in a parallel universe or something where the opposites are true?. I don't think we have seen the worst of the financial implications yet. A recession is more than likely to happen, it's just a matter of how severe and how long it will last. How can that lead to higher share prices?. If ever there was proof that the markets are being manipulated, to someones good, then I don't know what it is!.
In the U.S the Fed seems to be printing money as though it is going out of fashion, and nevermind about tomorrow lets just think about today attitude. Over 11 million unemployed in the last 3 weeks alone and now at over 10% nationally and still likely to rise far further. Job losses, companies going bust and of course, many folk dying from the virus as is the case all over the world. I wonder just how much Trumpty Dumpty has to do with the market rising with it being an election year; he can't let the market fall in case folk blame him, although of course nothing is ever his fault, he isn't responsible for anything bad only what is good. Feel sorry for him (not) what is he going to do without being able to hold all his rallies?, will he find a way to postpone the election?. All sounds like a bit of a rant, sorry. Just seems we are led by what is happening on Wall Street.
As for GBG, well it remains very much on my watchlist although I have been out of the company for some time now. Did I think about re-investing when it was under £5?, no. I think that despite it being a cracking company there may well be a retrace in the not distant future, simply because when the tide goes out all ships go down as we have already seen. Too much false optimism about.
BT - must be difficult to see the old house now a ruin. Think mine has gone the other way, with it having been a stables at some time before it was converted into the present dwelling. I am led to believe some of the foundations were actually taken from a Roman fort, the remains of that lie about a mile or less away. Plenty of time to work on the house and garden with being furloughed from work for the forseeable future.
Regarding RR, well, she is increasingly frail, the dementia is setting in more. Doesn't know who I am much of the time when I am with her nor hear me but ok on the phone. Difficult. She needs looking after but like me is too bloody minded.
Stay well, stay well one and all
The world is a mad place right now. I can see very little if any good news for the market at all. Seems like the market, particularly in the U.S are just shrugging it all off and thinking everything will be ok and perhaps it will in time. They seem to be looking beyond the coroanvirus, that it is a health issue and not a financial issue. Yet with so many folk now not working, not being able or rather allowed to get out and spend I am far from sure. Not that I appear to know anything going by the course of financial events. Even with massive new un-employment in the U.S it doesn't hamper the resurgent DOW which drives other stock markets around the world.
I have decided to bail out of SUK2 this morning. In truth I should have done it earlier. Taken a loss of around 12%, plus what I lost previously. No good battling against the market. I don't need the hassle or the time taken chasing this or anything else. I had been out of the market quite happily for 16 months or so. Being furloughed I have more important issues.
Probably the sign now for the market to drop again and SUK2 to rise. Wonder what effect U.S latest jobless figures will have; probably very little if the last 2 occasions is anything to go by.
Think I should sit on the sidelines now.
Good luck all.
CM
Not sure if you were referring to me or Jab1tt getting their arsed kicked. I'm getting my arsed kicked.
CM
The FTSE100 rose by around 10% which is why this fell so much today, a fair bit of it late on. The DOW has just closed 11% up. This is to do with the hopeful stimulus to rescue the U.S economy from the effects of the coronavirus. However, I have just been doing a little reading on marketwatch.com . It states the following:
"History may be repeating itself. Historically the biggest stock market jumps have come after giant plunges. The giant crash of Oct. 19, 1987 was followed by a 10% surge in the Dow (DJIA) on Oct. 21. The worst two days of the famous Wall Street Crash of 1929, on Oct. 28 and Oct. 29, were followed by a massive 12% surge in the Dow on Oct. 30 — the market’s third best day ever in percentage terms. The 10% plunge on March 12 of this month was followed by a 10% rocket on March 13.
Watch out for history repeating itself still more. Historically, the biggest one-day stock market jumps have also taken place during bear markets where the stock market then resumed falling again. Since 1900, 14 of the stock market’s 20 best days have been during bear markets, where prices kept falling.
A major reason for the stock market’s bounce is almost certainly technical. Hedge funds and other speculators had been making big money on the way down by borrowing stock they didn’t own, selling it in the market, and getting ready to buy it back later at cheaper prices. Such so-called “short selling,” which is perfectly legal, makes money when stock prices fall. However, it leaves speculators vulnerable to a sharp jump in prices. When that happens, they rush to buy back stock and close their positions. That causes a further jump in prices, though it may be short term."
Not sure where that leaves us. The optimists would say the market is on its' way back up. Perhaps there hasn't been a bear market afterall. No doubt the markets will recover, but I can't see that the worst is over with the current virus situation. It will be interesting, or not, to see what happens tomorrow. My guess, for what that is worth, is that the FTSE will rally further initially which of course will hit us here.
Cowyed - I don't know if there is an opposite ETF that doubles any ftse100 increase. There may well be.
Regards
CM
Having finally been able to set up a trading account yesterday, I invested in 100 units here yesterday morning - hence the fall back today!. Nothing to do with the markets, corinavirus, economics............just me!. Bought in at just under 1300. Not a huge amount. Looked reasonable at the time.
Maybe todays rise in the FTSE, at 10 a.m is just a blip. Once RNSs come out with trading updates then I can't see much joy the way things are. Market sentiment may have changed briefly. Still little if any good news out there to drive market higher anything more than short term. Should have delayed my purchase by 24 hours or so; but that always is the case with investing...should have, should have.
My many years of investing have largely been successful. Lets see what happens.
Regards
CM
Thanks Popes11.
Warren Buffet once said, "There are only 2 rules to investing; Rule 1 - don't lose money; and Rule 2 - don't forget Rule 1".
I have no intention in investing in any shares right now, only SUK2. But with the failure of being able to set up another account I may well just sit on the sidelines. The world has gone mad over the coronavirus!. Good luck to you. Glad to see someone is posting on here and hopefully not getting burnt.
Regards
CM
It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow on the markets. Will there be an initial rally on the back of what happened on the DOW on Friday, up nearly 10%?. It may be short lived. I just can't see any reason why the market is going to recover in the short term with the world so engrossed with the coronavirus. The steps being contemplated and in certain countries being implemented must surely push the economy into recession. Where is there any good news?. The only way the market is going to rise is if it is viewed as over doing things, over selling.
I am waiting to get an email to have opened a trading account. Fortunately I had sold all my holdings before my last broker, SVS Securities went bottom up last year. I am hoping the market rises tomorrow morning before a likely retreat which may give me time to transfer funds into the account and get a better price.
Very few shares worth buying right now. BEG may be a consideration, but overall I would say it is best to stay out of the market. Buying into SUK2 is a calculated risk as you will well know.
Good luck
CM
You may be right..........SHOULD this be the start of a bear market. The last serious one saw the stock market drop from around 6700 to around 3200. At that time I thought it wouldn't fall below 4800 so I got it badly wrong. Thankfully any money lost during that time I regained, eventually. A fall of a similar size would take the market down to below 4000. During that time there would of course be some rallies. The big question is of course, how much is the market re-acting to Coronavirus?, and if it is just a short term?, and/or is there bigger concerns?.
Regards
CM