Member Info for CHEQUEMATE

Assuming you are referring to me Volcano, thanks, appreciated.

No investments at present. Once my financial position becomes clearer regarding pension fund and housing situation, my property is on the market, I will have a better idea as to where I am.

My main interest in possible investing is in SUK2. SUK2 is not a share, it is an ETF, an exchange-traded-fund. It goes up twice as much as the FTSE100 goes down as it is a super short on the index. It has to be used with care as it can go down twice as much as the FTSE100 goes up. It can be bought and sold just like a share. There is no worry about market makers or market manipulation. The Naked Trader describes it in his book "How anyone can make money trading shares". I have used it in the past without much success to be honest, although I have only lost a little. Trouble is there can be a big movement one way or the other first thing when the market opens on the back of what has happened in the U.S and which we tend to follow. I would expect there to be a sizeable jump on opening on Monday morning so getting in at a good price can be difficult.

DOW is down again this evening and is heading towards 22,000 level. Trump (he who can't bear not being the centre of attention) is at it again with his threats and yet more resignations.

Good luck all, have a good weekend. Thank heavens there are so few trading days left to the New Year.

CM

Good luck Investinvalue. But let me assure you, if you have only been in the game for several years, you most definitely have not seen the "very ugly". I have been invested long enough to see the dot com boom and bust and the financial crisis plus others. It took me a LONG time to make up my initial losses. To me those losses seemed a great deal although absolutely nothing compared to what others are losing now or about to lose. At such time Fulham winning the premiership or being relegated to the National League South will be the last thing on anyones mind.

I need to sleep at night and not put at risk the profits I have made. I am now of the age when I haven't the inclination to fight to recoup large losses, nor the years to.

CM

Investinvalue - many people quote Warren Buffet at such times that we are going through now; largely to justify their own position. However, WB would have been very specific in the companies he invested in as we all must be, especially right now.

There are very many folk, perhaps a majority who are now invested that have never experienced a true bear market and nothing more than a correction. It is far easier now to invest with all the tools available and it is all to easy to invest with what is in effect others money, ie cfd etc. I just don't believe those who boast how much they have invested that they have that amount of free disposable funds; if so, where did they manage to get it from?!. In some instances it (if it is true) it amounts to many tens of thousands of pounds if not over a hundred thousand pounds. Have they asked themselves what happens if the value of their holding plunge?. Oh, but they intend to hold because WB says "be greedy when others are fearful etc.......". I have read on other boards, was it QPP and GBO to name 2?, that the fall in share price if it continued would be a "life changing experience"!.

Although technically neither the FTSE100 nor the DOW is yet in a bear market, "just" a correction, a majority of the FTSE250 constituents are likely to be as IS the case with the S&P500 in the U.S. It doesn't matter if the main indicies are not yet in a bear market if all or a vast majority of our own holdings are.

As far as under valued goes...........well, any company which may be VIEWED as under valued may get even more under valued. A cheap share can most definitely get cheaper, however unfair that may be. The market is the market and unless we are lucky we can not beat it, certainly not consistantly.

Someone, was it WB?, has said there are only 2 rules to investing. Rule 1 is not to lose money. Rule 2 is not to forget Rule 1. Very true. There are many investors right now, a vast majority who are sitting on losses. They refuse to look at the greater picture outside of their holdings, refuse to do anything other than view RNSs with rose tinted glasses. With interest rates so low for many years there has been little competition for our money other than invest in shares. That in itself has drawn the masses into something they really have little knowledge about. They forget that there is a warning that investments can go down in value as well as up and past performance is not a guide to future investment.

As far as AUM go, well, they may increase, but what if the underlying value is decreasing?, ie the share prices are falling, as indeed they are. Companies like MGR are fine when the market is rising, but as I have posted before, are risky in falling markets.

I am totally out of the market right now; thank heavens!. I have not made any money in that time, but have not LOST anything. I have no intention of re-entering the market as yet. I can rest easy(ier).

Good luck all

CM

Good evening BT,

thanks for the post. So good to hear from you again; I was begining to think you had jumped ship. I had intended to reply before now, but time has a habit of running away with itself and before we know what has happened a week has almost passed.

Pleased to see the share price for GBG has risen if only slightly since you posted. I would like to think it will continue, everything crossed, fingers, toes, legs and eyes and anything else. I am not sure the share price fall over the last couple of months or so is down to someone selling out or down because a vast majority of shares have been hit as badly or worse over the same period of time. GBG has just got caught up in the general market malaise. Regardless of how good the ship is, when the tide goes out then all ships go out with it to some degree. As you say BT, confidence will return, it always does, but quite when is the big question.

Before posting this I have taken out what I was going to post in full. It was rather gloomy regarding the market and I don't want to depress(?) folk any more than usual!. In brief, all I would say is I think we are in or entering a bear market generally and not a correction. There is gloomy news out from ASOS today and if online retail sales are now getting hit then................, well, being in retail myself it doesn't spell good news. The internet is both a blessing and most definitely a curse.

Need market to hold as high as possible for just another 2-3 weeks so my private pension fund isn't hit too hard which I have mentioned before. Once that is sorted I will give one mighty sigh of relief; you will probably be able to hear it all the way there in Newmarket!.

No further news re. the potential house move. Viewings of my property but nothing more. No worries, no need to move.

Thanks for asking after Red Rum. I visited a weekend ago. She was a little more frail than the last visit. Bad time of year for the elderly, especially those who can't get out more than a brief trot along the road; well, trot would be an over statement. It can be difficult when the World is saying CHRISTMAS, CHRISTMAS, CHRISTMAS, YO!, ENJOY!, WOW!. I am sure you know what I mean. Mum will be glad once it is all over.

Have a good Christmas BT and Mrs. BT. Watch out for those puppies, hide the pigs in blankets etc. Sudden memory flash back to when I saw a fox hound run across the road in front of me way out in the country with a string of sausages in his mouth!; no idea where he got them from or where he was going with them although I dare say he did!.

Stay well. Enjoy the Jura.

Regards

CM

You should do what you feel you should do Investinvalue. I do understand what you are saying but regarding macro events we will have to agree to disagree. How long it will take to correct the macro events remain to be seen.

I wish you well and good luck

CM

It's up to you totally what you do Investinvalue and I am certainly not giving or intending to give any advice. However, be it MGR or any other share, selling and taking a loss, small or otherwise, can be far better than holding and seeing the loss become significantly greater. Too often we can as investors get blind to our holdings and "fall in love with them", not looking outside the box to see whether there are better investments out there at the time. When we finally come to "divorce" our holdings it can be mighty expensive.

A vast majority of my holdings over the last 2 years or so are now trading below what I sold at, whether it was at a profit or a loss. In other words, had I held onto them I would be FAR worse off than having cut my losses or taken my profits when I did.

Part of investing is recognising that at times we will make a loss. Most investors lose money on the stock market for the very reason that they will not take a loss and admit they made a mistake. I believe that if I sell and it was a mistake then I can always re-invest even if it is at a higher price than hold blindly and see the mistake was not selling.

"Looking to buy all the way down!"; what?, even if the share price should drop to sub 40p, 30p or whatever?. Seen/read it so many times on the boards, it RARELY works.

I am not disputing MGR is a good company but the market generally, on a macro scale, is dire at present. I have seen a bear market in the somewhat distant past and know what caos it can cause. This time, if it is a bear market, may be far worse because so many investors have had no experience of the drip, drip, drip erosion of the value of their holdings and will hold on the bitter end. BUT, again, I say, I may be wrong, I hope I am.

Good luck Investinvalue, whatever you do.

Regards

CM

At what point do you stop hoping for a further fall in share price?. If you want/expect the share price to fall then why don't you sell your present holdings and buy them back and more at a cheaper price?. Sorry. But I find your view utterly bonkers!. Here I am thinking a RISING share price was a good thing. Had I kept my holding and added more on the way down, "averaging down" I would be sitting on a very large and increasing loss, not the decent profit made exiting at 72p.

Folk are so use to a bull market for so long many have never experienced a bear market, which MGRand very many other good company share prices are now experiencing. Lower highs followed by lower lows.

Good luck to all

CM

It appears Kames have increased their holdings in GBG. They must have confidence. That is good news.

Come on GBG, give folk a Santa Rally, give folk a Christmas Box. Or at least a bottle of Jura for BigTosh.

CM

Sorry I couldn't be the bringer of the optimism you probably wanted. I was stating things as I saw them and after todays' fall on the DOW, remain of that opinion. The rally on Wall Street yesterday after Trumps words regarding China and tariffs and his optimism has soon waned. That is not a good sign. The market is looking for good news to be able to rally on the back of but just can't keep its' enthusiasm. The days of a rising market regardless seems to have passed. Many shares are showing lower highs followed by lower lows, especially looking at the last few months, regardless of results and prospects and looks like it is market general. This is the total reverse of what happens in a bull market. If this was/is a correction then in my opinion (only) it would be short lived and maybe harsh followed by a recovery, not the continued drip (and more).

Investinvalue - I would very much like to have your optimism. I truly hope all turns good.

For my circumstances, a private pension maturing at the start of January, I need the market to hold up as best it can for the next month since some of the pension fund is dependant on it. A Santa rally would be most welcome.

Good luck all

Regards

CM

Haven't heard from you for a while. Hope all is well. No doubt you are busy with the house etc.

I am still keeping an eye on GBG despite being out for the time being.

Just when we feel there may be some recovery for the markets after Trump saying good things regarding China and tariffs, he opens his mouth again to put his other foot in it. The market is very nervous and any recovery is short lived. Issues of a month, two months and longer ago are still with us. Has Santa forgotten his way regarding any rally this year?.

I truly wish all the very best of luck and fortune here and elsewhere.

Regards to you, MrsBT and all

CM

Yes. In rising markets companies like MGR tend to do very well but when there is a down turn in the markets they can suffer. I mentioned in my last post that "this could be but not necessarily is the start of a market correction..........it may just be a very short term market shake." MGR has lost almost 20% of its' value since then. Although there has been some relief today for the markets I feel that this may just be a relief rally and short lived and that there is likely to be more downside yet.

There is very little if any good news around generally; rising interest rates in the U.S (watch out for any announcement from the Fed on Wednesday of future guidance), falling oil prices (seen previously as good but no longer for the U.S), trade war/import taxes between the U.S and China, Brexit, Italian budget concerns, etc.

Whereas I was of the opinion that the market may be in correction mode, I am now more bearish. There may be a "Santa Rally" over the next month. Come next year though things may get a lot tougher...........or not of course since I am no expert and am only giving my opinion.

From the RNS of 10 October, AUM under management it was stated:

"It is encouraging to report that the Group has continued to see positive net inflows across a wide range of strategies and good long-term performance. The Group achieved the 9th largest net retail sales in the UK in the second quarter of 2018, as noted in the Pridham Report.

After a number of years where markets have risen strongly, several major markets have seen declines in 2018. Despite this background, Miton has achieved strong flows and with our range of genuinely active funds and strong distribution, we are well-placed for an environment where returns on all asset classes may be challenged by the end of quantitative easing and rising interest rates."

As previously stated, I am now out of the market but sitting on the sidelines watching. My circumstances have changed and so I am in no rush to re-enter just yet.

The very best of luck for those of you invested here and elsewhere.

Regards

CM

on how things are with folks here. Still sitting out and watching the market generally. Not good. Seems outside the FTSE100 the market has been in a slow downward trend for some time and no obvious sign of recovery just yet. Pretty much all of the shares I have had an interest in over the last 2 years or so are now trading lower than when I sold out, either for profit or loss. Wasn't particularly skillful, more luck than anything. No rush to re-invest anywhere. The funds I have are too precious to lose any bearing in mind I need all I can to help towards any potential deposit on a move of house.

Hope all is well with you all. I will keep in touch.

Bye for now, good luck, regards

CM

After this mornings' healthy rns, I hope the fall is just a repeat of Thursday two weeks ago when there was a steep fall before recovering. Early morning jitters all round. Buying opportunity?. Not for me, I remain out although I do have an interest in SUK2 (an ETF not a share).

Very good luck to all

Regards

CM

Of course, your comments may have been made in jest!.

CM

I completely agree with mick-b!. Your comments TT must surely go down as one of the daftist I've have read in many a long day!. Averaging down can but RARELY works. That's buying into weakness. Averaging up, buying into strength very often DOES work.

If you want the share price to fall so that you can buy more, then best sell what holding you have now and buy them back at a lower price. Only I dare say that if you sell you will be anxious that that will be the key for the share price to rise further.

And beware of shorters. They generally have FAR more idea what is going on in the market than those who go long. I don't like what they do and have never done it myself. If it is institutions going short then they have far deeper pockets than the likes of me.

Good luck.........think you will need it and more

CM

Good evening BT.,

thanks for your post and comments. Always good to read. You are so right.

I am far from sure that anything will come regarding the house. It is the same house M and I put an offer in 18 months ago but fell through. We could have afforded it together; by myself now that we have split?, well, I am speaking to mortgage advisers tomorrow; nothing lost by doing that only time. It is highly unlikely I can afford it but I will get some idea as to quite what I can afford and I can take up to 25% tax free from my private pension fund (25% of not much is even less, but better I have it than Mr. Taxman. In the meantime I just can't afford to see funding diminish. I take the chance that funding won't increase had I stayed invested in any share. Besides, as Robbie Burns, The Naked Trader says; if you make a mistake selling then you can always buy back in. Better that way than making a mistake by holding and selling at a lower price. It is highly likely that I will re-invest......................

Driven the 300 miles+ back today from seeing Red Rum. She seemed in pretty good spirits and all the better for seeing me (surprisingly some would say!). We try to make the most of the limited time we have together. Such times make me realise what is important and wonder why I get so tied up in knots over some things. I don't know about puppies wearing you out BT, no, wait a moment, yes I do!, so do elderly mothers!, sometimes quite entertainingly so!.

Lets see what tomorrow brings here. Who knows?. The rise on the DOW (which drives so much) on Friday was expected and predictable, although it took until late on to finally happen. That may or may not have an effect on tomorrows trading one way or the other. On reflection, it was pretty obvious that GBG was heavily over sold on Thursday like many other shares and there was a golden opportunity to buy in much lower and reap the risk rewards if only held until Friday afternoon. Surprised to see GBG price fall back late Friday, relieved therefore I didn't buy back in when it was high. This a prime time for investors to get caught out.

Good luck all

Regards

CM

Good evening BT.,

thanks for your post and comments. Always good to read. You are so right.

I am far from sure that anything will come regarding the house. It is the same house M and I put an offer in 18 months ago but fell through. We could have afforded it together; by myself now that we have split?, well, I am speaking to mortgage advisers tomorrow; nothing lost by doing that only time. It is highly unlikely I can afford it but I will get some idea as to quite what I can afford and I can take up to 25% tax free from my private pension fund (25% of not much is even less, but better I have it than Mr. Taxman. In the meantime I just can't afford to see funding diminish. I take the chance that funding won't increase had I stayed invested in any share. Besides, as Robbie Burns, The Naked Trader says; if you make a mistake selling then you can always buy back in. Better that way than making a mistake by holding and selling at a lower price. It is highly likely that I will re-invest......................

Driven the 300 miles+ back today from seeing Red Rum. She seemed in pretty good spirits and all the better for seeing me (surprisingly some would say!). We try to make the most of the limited time we have together. Such times make me realise what is important and wonder why I get so tied up in knots over some things. I don't know about puppies wearing you out BT, no, wait a moment, yes I do!, so do elderly mothers!, sometimes quite entertainingly so!.

Lets see what tomorrow brings here. Who knows?. The rise on the DOW (which drives so much) on Friday was expected and predictable, although it took until late on to finally happen. That may or may not have an effect on tomorrows trading one way or the other. On reflection, it was pretty obvious that GBG was heavily over sold on Thursday like many other shares and there was a golden opportunity to buy in much lower and reap the risk rewards if only held until Friday afternoon. Surprised to see GBG price fall back late Friday, relieved therefore I didn't buy back in when it was high. This a prime time for investors to get caught out.

Good luck all

Regards

CM

Yes. Should have put a buy order in at around 470 myself but not in a position to do so. Brokers website down this morning so couldn't get back in below 530p. Waiting, but for reasons given previously I have to be careful. Who truly knows what is about to happen, market is nuts. Over pessimism followed by over enthusiasm.

GLA

CM

A truly stunning recovery today from its' low of around mid 440s. Finishing up. I'm not sure what I would have done had I been invested still when the share price was down 8% earlier.

Well done those who held their nerve and/or bought in/more. Commiserations to those who bailed, completely understandable.

I've spent much of the day driving South so took no action bar reflect on what was happening re share prices.

Tomorrow is another day.of course.

Truly good luck all

CM

I would go further than what ANDYALY has said and say it is the whole of the market and not just AIM. On an ebbing tide all ships will go down. Not just this side of the pond. There is a lot of nervousness around right now, rising bond yields, expectations of rising interest rates in US, nervousness in Eurozone over Italian government budget raising borrowing and debt to levels not permitted by ECB and possible reaction to it - basically Italy sticking two fingers up to EU and saying, "what are you going to do about it?", "putting Italy first". Some concern here and in Europe over Brexit etc., etc., plus continuing concerns over trade war between US and China. List long enough?. And additional thoughts that the market has reached at least a temporary top and could be due for a correction.

Long story short - not IOM specific.

Not advice, but I would be very careful before buying anything right now. There is probably more downside to come generally.

Regards

CM