Member Info for Cheapsharesboy

I could be wrong. But my view is that the market is pricing this wrong currently.
I think the last decline is down to guiding LIQ earnings into lower end of forecast of £160-180 million for the 9 months plus one week that LIQ was owned by TCAP in the current earnings year. I see TCAP buying LIQ with the assumption of a 10% further decline in earnings, they expected $175-180m in that 9m plus one week period. Decline appears around 20%.
However, it seems as if all the positives are being ignored.
From the last RNS:
Data/analytics earnings increased 9% again due to new product launches. This will likely stay that way due to benefits of LIQ acquisition, the data offering will be excellent. Cost savings & synergies were ahead of forecasts.
We are also expecting launch of crypto-platform - I'm unsure how big of a deal this is?
It is also likely that volatility has now began to increase LIQ and TCAP earnings this month, depending in C19 hassle around the world, this will likely persist for a bit IMO.
COEX earnings were up 13% further improvement in TCAP business.
Final divi is forecast to be 6p giving yield of 7.6%. Mind you - depending of cash flow - this could be 8p - yield of 9.1%.
The low case I see as 4p still giving a yield of 6.1%.
I think 8p is likely but I'm biased as that is what I wish they will afford - although 6p maybe more sensible.
It is a long slow fight but I think they are turning this around. Feel free to disagree.

So which of these is the best pick?
Obviously M&G is priced for a dividend cut by the market.
The borad is disputing this, so far, I understand. But if margins are getting squeezed, but is a possibility.
M&G yield is now 9.75% - ridiculous market pricing in a cut
LGEN is rated at 6.3% which appears fairly safe
Aviva rated at around 5.7% currently.
All quite high - which is the best pick?
All yields pretty good, m&g incredible at the current rate.

The question is does Superdry have what it takes to be successful in the weird brace new world. It’s never gonna be normal again. So have they got it??

Buy

Exactly. My first but here, small purchase hopefully one of many to come. Let the market dump, pump and dump. So many overvalued assets it’s unreal.

Ad is pretty spicy! ??

Add to that mulberry.
All out of fashion.

It’s fallen to a new low on a very small volume.
Bots trading it down on tiddler tiny trades.

Tcap worth £600 but they have more cash than that.
So it’s priced as a business losing money.
What is nav now, 2.3-2.4B?
Market cap less than 1.1B.

That ever negative Trevor has found a soulmate of negativity. Do you only buy shares that you hate?

Is it going to be 1 for 1 on A or B shares?
A shares are 5p cheaper so if you buy those, presumably you save 5 pence?
Can anyone clarify please?

Thank you

Just to clarify, the prev 12-month figure for LIQ was 12-months to 30/6/20, the figures we are looking are 23/3/21 onwards to 23/3/22. So that is not year after, that is 1yr 9 months after those prev quoted figures. So it's not a 20 percent decline in a year. It looks like LIQ was looking for the right buyer to arrest the decline. Because of the inherent risk of buying a business that needs a turnaround, tcap negotiated the fee from 600-700 down to 575-700m, effectively making the conditional part of the fee larger.
Oddly enough, it seems like the tcap side of the business had a bigger improvement last Q than LIQ.

The market knew Sept 7th that LIQ earnings were below what was hoped for.
In the 3 months to 30/6 LIQ earned 48.7M below what TCap expected.
So, in the next 3 month period LIQ earned 51M, a 4.7% increase from the prev 3 months.
So at least the last 3 months was an improvement. But I think the board was expecting LIQ earnings to be 10% below last year, but in fact the first 3m was 20% less so that was a big disappointment. However, that has improved since then, despite a poor October. If this trend continues, they should be able to beat the low end expectation, not fail again.
The only bonus is that the purchase of LIQ, with lower earnings potentially is $125m cheaper. The purchase price was $575 - 700m depending on LIQ earnings. So that fee is likely to be far less than $700, maybe around $600m.
Just saying that whilst the prev drop was justified, the last one was not because it was all in the public domain already for the past 3 months.

Yep volume just gone through the roof.
Absolute bargain.
Someone just woke up!

Sounds like you've read correctly. Fitch sees this as a positive as the notes are extended to 2028.
Same rating as before BBB-.
The move to Jersey base seems to play a part here, they said that to improve financial flexibility, the move will help.
It's good too have no VAT on the trades to buy shares, every little helps I guess.
Except when the share price keeps sinking that doesn't help.
Looks like they have a new appointment at EMEA side, looks like a sharp guy Sebastian Rozes.
And two months ago Liquinet launched fully electronic bond in the primary markets.
Hopefully all this activity in the end will get the profits, margins and the share price back up.
Liquinet disappointed in the update, hopefully not going forwards.
As far as I know, the all time low sp is around 93p. I am not saying it will ever hit below £1.
Would be a change to see the next update, due early Feb I suspect, to be met with a share price jump,
not the customary fall. We'll see about that.

Compare valuation of robinhood Vs IG index.
Says it all. Dump London market is doomed.

I think it's mainly down to negative London markets.
If it was elsewhere like Nikkei, Dax or USA, it would be up.
London is fully focused on negatives. Just the way of people focussed on negatives. Never mind all the positives. UK is a seller's market. But the Americand are buying UK assets. So you know money is leaving London.

Stop losses on a share like this is not advisable.
All you do is sell at the bottom, i.e. transfer of shares from weak holders to strong.

I think the reaction is mainly down to London market. London is a negative market. If this was USA, it would be up by a large amount. Anyhow, corner is being turned in my view and a large Divi to boot. I think the drop will reverse over the next few days. Gla

Perhaps the negative was that liquinet earnings were quided to low end of 160-180 range. However, cost savings and synergies from liquinet were ahead of schedule.