Member Info for CharlieR

Maybe today about 19 months ago?

Hi CoconutGrove The attached link is definitely a good background to G4M but obviously a little out of date with regard to the numbers. There are also 2 later reports from Edison on the G4M website. You may also be interested in my own analysis which I posted on a different website last night and gives further insight to the financials. Please see below. Having analysed the income statement for the last 4 halves over the past few days I am now extremely bullish about the short, medium and long term prospects of G4M. I am not sure how many people realise that in the second half last year the business posted a post tax earnings figure of £1.06 million, equivalent to an EPS of 5.26p. When reading through all the financial statements and press reports I was surprised that this was not highlighted in greater detail, and just seemed to get lost in the full year financial figures of a tiny loss (all losses generated in the first half) With revenue in the 2nd Half last year at just under £23m being nearly matched in the first half this year at £21.6m, and add to that management stating that profit is above management expectations, on a conservative basis I am expecting earnings to be a minimum of £779,000 in H1 this year (EPS of 3.86), although it could easily top £900,000. (anything above that then happy days). 1st half earnings historically only represent around a third of the full financial year. The important point here is that this is the first time the business will be showing positive bottom line earnings and a positive EPS in any financial update which I think will come as a surprise to many. It was also interesting to see how economies of scale are having such a positive effect on the administrative expenses when expressed as a % of revenue. The following shows the last 4 halves with both revenue figures and expenses expressed as a % to revenue. H1 2014/15 - £8.8m, 32% H2 2014/15 - £15.5m, 23.1% H1 2015/16 - £12.5m, 27.6% H2 2015/16 - 23.0m, 21.0% H1 2016/17 - £21.6m, 21.7% (est) In short, at a relatively fair PE of 40, I genuinely see the SP moving to between £5.13 and £6.75 by the end December 2016, unless a major fall off in revenue is reported as part of the interims update, which I just don't see happening. It may not happen on results day, but I have bet a decent sum of money that it will happen soon. That would be based on full year earnings of between £2.6m and £3.4m for 2016/17. Thereafter, even at growth of only 40% through 2017/18, a SP of £7.18 - £9.45 by end 2017 would only be maintaining a forward multiple of 40. Yes I am extremely bullish, but it is only based on the published accounts and numbers that I think the mass market have simply overlooked to date. Really excited about next Tuesdays interims. Best wishes all and obviously just my thoughts.

Hi GrouchoMarx2 I am a huge fan of KAZ and am in it for what I will believe will be solid growth through 2017 / 18. One question for you from your last post, if you believe there is a chance of a global recession at any point soon, then that is going to be bad news for copper. Would just appreciate your thoughts on why you believe copper would grow in a global recession. I am more of a view that growth is gong to stagnate for quite some time but a fully blown global recession will be avoided. Many thanks

Hi Kidnocked Have to say I have been relatively pleased with the share price action over the past few weeks, however you know my view on this, it is still nowhere near the volume needed to suggest, or convince me, to buy into the rather inflated listing price theory being suggested by certain individuals! It would be great if Arria could deliver news next week as per their previous guidance, however I guess most will stay calm over a week or two slippage. Good luck and have a great weekend.

InvestandFight, The RNS of the 4th July stated the following. "The Board of Arria currently anticipate that full details of the Listings and the Fundraising will be announced in the current quarter." This is the news that most shareholders are expecting and hoping to hear more about, and with only 6 full business days to the end of current quarter, one assumes news should be delivered by the end of next week. Of course it may slip given the use of the word anticipate. Whether that news is good, bad or indifferent remains a position of conjecture and personal viewpoint. Confirmation of secured funding and listing will be good enough for me at this stage, irrelevant of the size of premium to the current share price.

Fair enough. Thanks for the honest response. I guess a lot feel the same way and are slightly bewildered by the price reaction last Wednesday. Outside of an acknowledgement of a slightly difficult July and August, albeit not significant enough to derail achieving consensus full year targets, there was very little to be disappointed about in the interims. I am fairly confident of upward movement soon it just may take a few weeks. Obviously just my views.

Delboy77. There is no doubt that broker targets serve a self interest as much as anything, but over a period of time do tend to show the general direction of travel, in my experience. I am intrigued that you are "regretting it after getting in yesterday" (Wednesday). Given you obviously saw the interim statements before making your decision what did you or didn't you read that you are now regretting so much? Just intrigued.

Hi Rivaldo Good to also see Numis have upped their target to 1700 and even Canaccord Genuity have increased to 1500. All bodes well with what were a solid to good set of interims (taking into account the extremely high expectations).

Hi Rivaldo Good to also see Numis have upped their target to 1700 and even Canaccord Genuity have increased to 1500. All bodes well with what were a solid to good set of interims (taking into account the extremely high expectations).

Hi opulentia In principle I fully agree with your sentiments albeit I think £5 is a little toppy and would require a substantial increase in the copper price to get close to that. My own view however is that £3 / £3.50 will come next year as part of a gradual re-rate on the basis that Kaz continue to produce solid results with debt financing resolved appropriately. Between now and then I also expect plenty of week to week swings so opportunities for all types of investor. Of course if copper rises and stays above £2.50 / £2.60 then who knows..... Regards

Can sell 2000 at 1727, with most sells being reported as buys and the price still going North. Can only believe there is some rather large mopping up going on and not being reported. Quite possibly one of the many trusts / funds that various posts have eluded to over the past few days. Just my thoughts but all in all very exciting.

Many thanks for your numerous updates Rivaldo, they are extremely enlightening and helpful. I am fairly new to Accesso but have built up a stake of 2000 shares over the last two weeks on the back of what seems like a fantastic success story to date with vast near and longer term potential. I am excited about the forthcoming 1/2 year results on the 14th September, particularly given Accesso haven't updated the market since their bullish trading update on the 24th May. As an aside, while not huge volume, buying appears relentless this week. Thanks again.

No expert, but would suggest 1. Recent drop in copper price taking copper into bearish territory. 2. Day traded fairly heavily with 3% - 6% swings relatively commonplace. Having said that, if it can hold a low of around £1.75 in the current trading range (assuming no major further fall in copper prices), then the last few months are generating higher highs and higher lows as Kaz continues to deliver upbeat trading messages around production, revenue and earnings. I personally quite like the trajectory it is currently following and would hope to see further solid trading results, and debt refinancing, leading to a SP of around £2.50 - £3.00 come summer 2017. Just my thoughts though as definitely not an expert.

Hi OF. There are undoubtedly other posters on here who can give you a better explanation, however in essence your assumption is correct in that it is incorrect data on the 5 year graph. The price actually fluctuated between £1.70 and £2.90 through that period (source Hargreaves Lansdowne). Having said that the period between 2013 and late 2014 is the period when Kaz Minerals went through a major restructure and refocussing of the business. If you google 'Kaz Minerals restructure 2014' you will get plenty of information or just search through the RNS's. Hope that is a small help.

Would be interested in any thoughts on the following line from today's RNS with regard to alternative structures to the current listing. "the Company intends to maintain a listing in the United Kingdom and the Board is considering the most suitable structure for this." Also think the interim results next week need to show some clear revenue growth to Instill some confidence that the many trials underway are starting to come to fruition. To date there has been lots of words and very little in the way of numbers.

St0wski Generally a good RNS and I fully agree with your observation. Definitely a more mainstream mass market offering. I continue to believe however it will be at least Q2 2017 before we see any appreciative rise in the SP as even a SaaS product will require 6 - 12 months of trials by prospective customers prior to any meaningful adoption. It remains a long term hold for me on the basis that I think the future still looks excellent, just requires patience. I would be delighted if the timings are earlier.

Kidnokd, Many thanks for taking the time to respond, much appreciated. While I appreciate a lot of what you have outlined remains speculative, the non speculative elements of your post do clearly highlight the opportunity and compelling case with which NLG is positioning itself. I also think that the deals along the lines of Genpact and INOVX will ultimately prove to be the longer term bread and butter revenue for the company, however I still have an inkling that it will take time for these to deliver the hard bottom line finances that the market is ultimately looking for. The company have already stated that they do not expect to see any license revenue from the INOVX deal until 2017 at the earliest. For what it is worth, my own thoughts, and hope, is that a more visible stand alone deal, more akin to the contract previously entered into with Shell (even if of far smaller value), will be the type of contract and announcement needed to propel the share price in the short term. Obviously lots of speculation as with all shares, however I remain a committed and extremely optimistic long term investor in NLG, and once again many thanks for taking the time to respond.

Hi Kidnokd, with a holding of 40,000 shares I am a relatively small investor in Arria, however see it as a disruptive technology with many USP's that are applicable to a wide variety of industries, but as business reporting software within mainstream markets may still be a little before its time. I have invested with the long term aim of seeing the £2 - £4 SP targets you have mentioned, however I struggle to see where a year end SP of £1 will come from. A £1 SP would imply a market cap of £123m, and while I appreciate PE's of innovative technology companies can be many multiples of earnings, even with a PE of 20 or 30 in the short term this would imply earnings of £4 - £6m and for arguments sake revenue of £8m to £12m. From a 2015 revenue and operating profit of £1.5m and minus £8m respectively that would appear a long stretch in the short term. As mentioned earlier I appreciate cutting edge technology companies often attract eye watering PE's and market caps in anticipation of future delivery, Amazon being a great example with a market cap of $260bn on a loss last year of $111m, albeit with sales of nearly $90bn. I would be interested to hear if your thinking is based on announcements yet to be released that will deliver a re-rating based on future potential, or whether you foresee a dramatic change in revenue and earnings in the short term potentially as a result of the many trials that have been ongoing over the past 18 months? It goes without saying I would be absolutely delighted to see £1 by calendar year end!! Regards