Member Info for CharlieR

And to be frank they could equally all be buys that have been worked for the past few hours and reported at a point where they appear to be sells against the spread at that point in time. The reporting of buys and sells is the most worthless piece of information on the market. General rule. If SP increasing then there is more buys than sells irrelevant of what is reported, and vice versa. Fully agree that the price is in frothy against current business returns, but I had always pencilled in £4 for the UK business alone if 10% market share is hit within 2 years, which looks feasible. Its most definitely going to be bumpy.

Don't over do it though. Only thing worse than excessive negativity is blatant ramping! Highly amusing all the same.

Sain. Delighted you have. Had always hoped you had secretly got some at some point over the past few weeks!

True Risk and reward stuff. There is no doubt it is highly exciting and the upside potential is enormous. Judging by the detail in the lengthy RNS last night, the directors also appear to be entering into it with their eyes fully wide open. And you cannot fault the placing details, both the ability to raise substantial sums in a matter of hours, but more importantly, at basically the existing selling price. All extremely good stuff. But as others have inferred, the USA doesn't welcome foreigners with open arms when it comes to doing business on their turf. It will be extremely tough. It will also be extremely draining on key individuals time. Just have to hope the management infrastructure is solid both in the UK and Australia. I think I would have preferred it to be happening in 12 months time, with a UK market share nearing 10% and Australia firmly bedded in, however that potentially would have been at the cost of first mover advantage or even the entire opportunity. Cant have it all ways. Extremely pleased however that the focus continues on the sales front rather than wasting time and money on lettings at this stage of the business development cycle, as the lettings business will never fit naturally with the key USP's of PB. Overall extremely pleased but with healthy reservations.

Sain, I see Rightmove / Zoopla and PB as complimentary. I just do not see conflict as a topic of conversation, or at least for the foreseeable future. Unless PB were to capture a ridiculous portion of the market (60% - 75%+) which is extremely unlikely for a plethora of reasons, then buyers will always use a Rightmove / Zoopla platform as their starting point because buyers want to be able to see the full market picture, not just a part of it, even if it is 50%. A Rightmove / PB tie up at some point down the line, possible maybe, but also highly unlikely unless the market moves to a position of only 3 or 4 dominant players with circa 80% - 90% share. In short I do not see a situation where Rightmove / Zoopla will become defunct and replaced by agents own websites, whereas while all agents will obviously continue to offer and develop their websites, I see them as always being the secondary port of call for buyers (and vendors gaining market knowledge ahead of listing). Apologies, appreciate I am not Cyber!

Cyberduck, you are not wrong on all of those points. As a vendor, timescale and price are inextricably linked. If I am in a hurry to sell I will ensure I am priced competitively with whomever markets my property. If I have time on my hands, I will ensure I am priced at the very top of the market and accept viewings / offers may be slow or non existent, particularly in the early days. What I won't do is start blaming the agent, unless of course they have broken contract, as it will still have been my choice in selecting the agent initially. As an aside, as a resident of this country, I despair at what has happened to our high streets over the past 30 years. It started with food retail over 30 years ago with the advent of big supermarkets destroying independent grocers, local farmers and sellers of produce, it is now rife within clothing retail and other general merchandise, and will soon put an enormous hole in high street estate agents. There are common variables at play in all of these sectors, price and convenience. Fascinating to hear that doctors appointments are also moving online (where feasible). As you say such is life, I don't like it personally, but have to accept it, particularly as an investor. I forget the source, but I believe it is fairly widely quoted that 50% of housing transactions will be from online sellers by 2020. Still seems a bit of a stretch to me, but the rate of change could quite easily get more and more aggressive every year, as the online model becomes accepted amongst the masses.

Sain, most definitely not dismissing the role lightly, but to stress, it is not a point of differentiation between online and high street agents. Given the infancy of PB, there is a strong possibility today that in an above average number of areas the local high street agents have greater local knowledge than PB LPE's / customer service teams. But it is inevitable that this will diminish over time as volume continues to grow, high street agents become LPE's and existing LPE's build their own databases of information. The infrastructure and systems of information available will already be extremely similar. It really is just a ticking clock. Cyberduck. Interesting information from Which.

Sain, So it sounds as if you fully agree with me then. The agent / LPE is no more than a facilitator offering a service (for which the vendor perceives a value) with the market dictating the appropriate sale price, but the vendor setting the listing price and ultimately responsible for any successful transaction. Given all those points, it is ridiculous to consider the agent could ever be responsible for a property not selling in any given timeframe. Crooked Billet, Paul Clerehugh, have been a few times but never for the music nights. If you are up this way again you should definitely try Orwells, possibly the best restaurant in the area and fantastic value for money.

Morning Sain, I do hope that Brick wasn't a lighter shade of purple. I won't disagree that paying up front, with no guarantee of success, is the slightly uncomfortable element of the PB model. However I do not see it as a negative. It comes back to who is responsible for the sale. Ultimately, without any shadow of a doubt, responsibility lies with the vendor. The agent is no more than an intermediary facilitating that sale, for whom the vendor determines an appropriate price for the service. Any product that is priced appropriately in any market will sell. It has been that way since God was a boy. It is no different with the housing market. While the vendor remains responsible for the sale (and ultimately the price) the agent CANNOT be held responsible for a property not selling over a given timeframe. It is the vendors responsibility. If a vendor does not believe they are getting the facilitation service they paid for, then that is a whole different debate, but one without any differentiation between pure play online and traditional high street. In summary, I do not think, and have never said that the PB model is perfect, but I still haven't seen anything that dissuades me that the high street have anything meaningful to combat it, and in that light, and in today's market, cost to sell will continue to be a dominant force in the listing decision making process. PS. Nothing against Reading, I live in Henley so it is my local 'big town'. Just not convinced the aspirational course elements deliver the quality of output we would hope to see.......your good self excluded of course!!

So Performance Fees aka “Spiv’s paradise playgrounds” You have to love the irony that these highly qualified, highly experienced market practitioners are putting their hope in initially demonstrating that they do not understand the market thus triggering a performance metric either way. It is a quite beautiful strategy. With regard to long term quality of LPE’s, ultimately the market will ensure those businesses gaining traction and market share will have a fairly bountiful pick of the best of what is available. Good LPE’s (read agents) will naturally follow wherever the business leads them. I genuinely don't think Mr Bruce will be shuddering in his pit this evening at the thought of a High Street marketing campaign that tries to promote competitive business advantage by not knowing the business, and the highly perceived merits of Tarquin and Octavius who already rank pretty close to HMRC in a popularity contest with Joe Public. I have to say though I do genuinely enjoy your posts now that we have mainly left the conspiracy sectors behind us.

Bless you Sain. I cant't fault your persistence and passion (and sense of humour), fight the good fight and all that, but at what cost with regard to reality. Octavius, Tarquin and chums, I wouldn't say they have nothing to add to the party, quite the opposite in fact, pompous, condescending, over inflated ego carp are just a few things that spring to mind that they frequently decorate us mere mortals with. I haven’t seen the syllabus at Reading recently but my understanding is that it is quite closely related to the National Academy of Acting, with placements making up a good chunk at 'Del's Best Car Dealership' in Charvill. ’Smile, lie, keep em sweet’ - congratulations you have just been awarded a BA (Hons) in Estate Management.

Appreciate the thoughts Sain. I think your second point 'leaps' straight into the highly tenuous box I am afraid as it comes back to nothing more than quality of agent, available products, and availability of information which most definitely isn't any point of difference and most certainly, certainly, certainly could never ever be marketed!! There would be as many complaints about 'Octavius from Knight Frank' as there would be 'Our Kyle from Kitts Green'. Your first point is interesting however. To keep it simple lets assume a property of £500k. I am guessing an average commission on that would be in the ballpark of £9k (1.8%). I am also assuming that an average timescale would be 16 - 24 weeks from listing to sale. On the basis that the property is appropriately valued and marketed, what sort of time / sale price triggers would result in what sort of performance discounts or increases. e.g. If it is sold in 20 weeks for £500k, does that still result in a £9k fee. Whereas if it is sold for £525k in 10 weeks, does that cost more, as opposed to £475k in 30 weeks, does that cost less? Just looking for ballpark thoughts really to gauge the concept financially to a vendor.

Sain I am not going to get drawn into an argument (debate) with you on the quality of PB's LPE's over traditional high street agents, as we clearly come from different worlds with regard to this element of the discussion. Theoretically however, I have yet to hear any compelling reasoning as to why a high street agent can offer joe public a more knowledgeable and higher quality service than PB. I stand by the theoretical logic that all businesses will have an equal proportion of good, bad and ugly operators (over time). I also stand by the logic that all businesses will have access to a similar level of local and national knowledge relevant to buying and selling properties. Public engagement and use of social media will be dependent on IT infrastructure and investment along with marketing spend. Open to all businesses but obviously dependant on financial model and access to cash. I stress the word over time, as while PB are clearly already hugely successful, I believe it will take time and a fairly high turnover of LPE's before they achieve the local and national presence of high quality operators required for long term success. The business is obviously in its infancy and many new LPE recruits will find that the demands of self employed status just isn't right for the lifestyle balance they desire. The proportion of weaker operators however will reduce with time, and as the appropriate balance is found. The cost to employ to PB of LPE's is a fraction of what it is to a high street business. This will not only soften high turnover until the appropriate individuals are in place, but will also ensure that volume of LPE's is not an issue, leaving the key role for PB (central) to basically convince Joe Public to list their house with them. Based on your more educated guidance, it sounds as if they are already pretty good at that. Q. Theoretically, and practically, what exact points of difference can high street agents (RICS and NAEA) communicate to the public to convince them that paying an average of 4 to 6 times that of a pure play online agent is value for money. I genuinely can't see anything, based on my own experience and the points that I have eluded to above.

How has a vendor ever decided who to instruct? PB are just another agent in the decision process for any vendor, they simply are bringing a very different dynamic to the process along with other pure play online agents. Surely the decision making process is personal to every unique individual based on on a relatively limited number of variables that can change in significance over time. As a vendor of numerous houses in my lifetime, the three (four) main criteria in my decision making process are 1. My subjective and emotional perception of different agents I invite to value a property, primarily do I perceive them to be honest and genuine, hardworking in my interests, local reputation, word of mouth, visibility on high street, quality of marketing materials etc 2. Price (timeframe) and whether I believe the prices being quoted are realistic for my timeframe. 3. Cost to sell and perceived value of that cost. At the end of the day every business will have exceptional, good, average, poor and quite frankly shocking agents working for them, so ahead of the decision making process points 1 and 2 could take you in any direction in your choice of agent. Point 3 however is where the pure play agents have an enormous competitive advantage (as of today), which may or may not influence the decision making process depending on personal reactions to the former two points. As an investor, and vendor, however, I believe it increasingly will. One final point, vendors should always take full responsibility in the valuation setting process. If a vendor purely trusts any agent without doing appropriate homework and research ahead of listing, then they should not feel disappointed if they find themselves reducing the price of their property 10 months on following limited viewings and offers. Given the vast amount of information available to any vendor today (not to mention agents falling over themselves to value and discuss the sale of your property), the appropriate market price (for a specified timeframe) should not come as a surprise to any vendor.

Not sure what is offensive about the word "******ed" but it was awarded 6 stars. If further stars appear lets use reverted instead.

Sain, if I can call you that, you will already know that there is little in that post for me to reply to as most of it has unfortunately ******ed back to your nemesis of trust pilot, subjection and conspiracy. BUT, and at the risk of not being pedantic, shares ARE equity (a % of the business), approximately £1.5m will be in the income statement as a non recurring cost this year to cover their allocation, and that is the model I have an affinity to. I think you knew all that already but were just teasing.

Hi Cyberduck. Many thanks for replying yesterday and I fully understand the 'hearsay' element rather than absolute facts from a USA perspective. As it happens I wasn't aware of any link to Moneysupermarket.com. I knew that Errol Damelin (co founder of Wonga) was an early investor, along with Neil Woodford, but certainly wasn't aware, and currently have no knowledge with regard to money supermarket. Anything else you can add? Regards

Hi Cyberduck Just re-read your post and would be extremely interested in hearing any more information you gleaned with regard to any expansion into the states. While I am sure the the USA would be less welcoming than Australia, first mover advantage is an extremely powerful position and would love to hear any more information you have on it. With regard to fundamentals, as a starting point I suggest you read through the full year report for FY 2016 and interims for FY 2017 either off the PB website or via RNS on this site. If you have any questions I, or I am sure other knowledgeable posters on this board would only be too willing to help. As with an investment in any stock there are risks associated with PB, the single biggest probably being sustained growth and capture of market share, however given the business model aligned to seismic social and cultural shifts in how the public live their lives today, PB looks pretty well positioned to achieve revenue and earnings objectives. Lets be honest, the next generation of house buyers and sellers probably won't want to get out of bed to transact on a property, its solely an extension of how they buy clothes and shop today. Look forward to your thoughts.

Cyberduck, I couldn't agree more with the experiences of high street agents you have articulated in the second paragraph of your post. Sadly the only truly genuine and honest agents I have had the pleasure of dealing with are longstanding small independents, who unfortunately in the main have long been replaced by poor quality chains. From personal experience only, the worst of the worst has to be Foxtons and Faron Sutraria, where you can add arrogant, rude and patronising to the list of high street agents enviable traits and qualities that you have eluded to.

CoconutGrove, The link you posted directs to an article that is dated 18th May 2015, about 19 months ago and ahead of the float. Best wishes.