Member Info for Charlie1984

Shaa to explain the NPV of £184

Deal was worth $185m back in December

Oil has increased 35% adding $65m (value of us buying Atomic) do is now worth $250m

$250m / current exchange of 1.36 = £184m

The calculations are basic and bottom line the could be PO rations used by the market but that will only increase the SP if they are used and a bonus as we are only calculating bottom line.

Rather under estimate and we get a bigger value than over expect.

Let’s look at it this way the deals NPV was originally $185m we have increased 35% on oil price increase since December. That is an additional $65m that now increases the NPV to $250m

Strangely the increase to date of $65m is the overall cost of this deal so why it’s cost is the increase in NPV covers this carry so $4m worth of shares on a MC re-rate is irrelevant as future SP cam now continue to bag on finance and deal sign off

I say rather obscured share price as the market hasn’t priced anything in here.
Given yesterday’s RNS you would have expected the start of the rise.
What seems apparent is that the market doesn’t believe the finance will go ahead or it will not believe it until it’s in black and white.
So given the revised NPV from ($185 +$65m for 35% increase in oil price) - now $250m or $184m we can safely agree that the only thing that is priced into this share price currently is out 15% Atomic State “NOTHING ELSE”

Simply check for your self

£184m NPV / 100% = 1.84m per 1%

1.84 x 15% Atomic holding = £27.6m

You guessed it our current MC

So nothing else priced in,so why you normally see SP rise in anticipation it seems the market has a very obscured view or cautious outlook.

Don’t worry to much about the SP once finance is sorted and the remaining 85% is signed and sealed this will rerate.

If we also get news on Nigerian licensing on or around the end of Jan star of February I am predicting a re-rated SP of 2-3p with this rising towards 5-6p by year end.

We also might see additional fields such as coal creek and acquiring the remaining interests I. atomic from partners which will only strengthen, support and hopefully help surpass these supported figures.

So I care not what the SP is today as I know we await 3 bits of the jigsaw and 3-4 weeks will be upon us in no time !

1) Finance agreed and signed off
2) Atomic Deal signed off

3)Nigerian Licensing (not required for re-rate but will bolster it)

Yacht - if not a steady rise a massive re-rate overnight.
One would prefer a steady and continuous rise as it flushes the profit takes out at different levels on the way up and attracts new PIs as sentiment builds making the rise more sustainable. Plus news normally takes off really well if sentiment is already building the SP.
Anyway 3-4werks to keep loading up and taking advantage of this rather cheap shares price.

Will be like chalk and cheese this time 4 weeks down the line - GLA

Shaa got in there first I was just taking notes

Discussions during the holidays to get the equity raised they are based New York

Revenue from day one, original plan was to drill this year, now the technical team has reviewed the 12 monthly figures and used max rate on simulation it responded so well, in fact the figures coming out are “Super” and no requirement to drill just increase flow rates by a factor of 3.

Metric is great - Right place, right time as you point out 3 weeks time this is all done and quote “ Everyone is happy!”

Looking to consolidate other interests in asset which they are currently pursuing.

There is also the addition of Coal Creek which again will follow the same recovery process using miscible flooding for increased recovery. Again these are proven resource assets so win win folks 3 weeks WoW

Most PIs are positive because Art have acquired 15% of Atomic, bought and paid for.

PIs unsure about financing going forward today received a RNS with details of that deal, which should conclude on or around the 15th Feb.

That deal covers the remaining balance and an additional $20m.

So what doesn’t the market like?

The market looks like it’s waiting for everything to be signed off.

Now I’m guessing at the sand time we receive a RNS that the finance has been signed off, we will receive a further RNS informing us of the purchase of the additional 85% of Atomic.

Given that the SP reached a high of +24% on details of the finance what will or do on finance and acquisition? 10-15x that?

I believe PIs believe the finance nailed on,I for one will continue to add, bought a few trenches this morning highest being 0.32 but heyho thought this would have bagged, however I have two invoices due so happy for this to remain at these levels until I have that cash to plow in here because it doesn’t matter what the SP is today or tomorrow it’s what it will be once everything is signed off and Atomic is ours.

Art has told us that the NPV $185m is based on $39/bbl oil price.

Oil this morning following a slight drop was sat $55.60

The increase of light crude following similar increases and increasing some 35% since the deal was stuck in December adding some $65m to the value. This increase people has been since December. We have agreed a price on company and it has increased in value by what the acquisition price is.
With oil set to continue to steadily increase profits increase and finance is covered.

No wonder PIs are positive, LB28 if you have been holding for a long time surely the prospect of finance being agreed and Atomic being ours in 3-4weeks is something to make you smile about?

Surely this needs to steadily increase and rise in anticipation. $185 + $65 + % increase in oil to Feb sign off.

MC retraced today from its high to £26m with no further increase $250m NPV = £184m / MC = 7 bags without additional PO multiples, licensing updates and other assets this is just on atomic!!!

So when will this move?

In anticipation or over night on news ?

Continuing with the negative trend LB28 called you out before for you negativity. Your clearly trading this share, the fact that you cannt help but be negative is a little sad really my guessing was you sold out or a chunk when the SP went over 0.3 this morning your now on the negative looking for a re-entry point.
Guessing when you start being positive this will let e wry one know your loaded back up

Strangely when looking at your posting history and positive to negative this morning it would suggest your trading this share, just my opinion but there you go

LB28- you mean dept to purchase Atomic which will have a 40-50 year life bringing in revenue. How do you think companies get a licence area into prediction?

You know atomic is already at that stage?

Crazy !

????

Just been reminded of the following on one of my whatapp groups that everyone is overlooking:

Don't forget copls Nigerian oil play is due anytime.

With XRT it is a no brainer now they have placed.

The drill assays are the key.

Anglo already signed up to take 80% minimum of the licence.

Would expect huge uplift by year end.

Base at 4p well supported

(Thanks John)

AMillholland@canoverseas.com

Email addresses in RNS

Regardless of the placing or dilution a company’s MC is valued on it worth.

As per Arts email he said a NPV off $185m div 1.36 (current exchange) = £136m div by current MC £28m
= 4.86 x current share price of 0.28 = 1.36p per share

This figure is what my expected minimum rerate was based on for my 1-1.5p short term target.

This is without taking into account PO ratios etc

So it’s easy to see why I cannt believe this didn’t bag today as to get to my prediction would meaning s re-rate on news in 3-4 weeks of some 4.86 bags going of current MC and today’s current SP

CawCaw no crossed wires just giving you the option to see it’s genuine.

I know a few will not believe it but if you seen it and confirmed it it could stop divided opinion

Tradinglad

"You all on the Bulletin Boards are conspiracy theorists"

What he is saying is that all will be revealed very shortly.
There is nothing negative about this email just a twist on words, which if I had landed the Atomic Deal got financing in place and read a BB where my actions or hard work were questioned I would be a little p!553d

CawCaw I can 100% guarantee the email and I will go as far as to email it to you if you supply your address.

I stand by my posts and don’t post BS or fake news as some PIs have or do on other shares.

I am very happy by the content of the reply and feel that his reply is passionate and displays that he has hit the nail firmly on the head with the deal and getting finance in place and feels he has hammered this home.

It’s clear that Art and his team are reading this BB. It’s also clear from his reply that he has a great deal of confidence.
I was impressed with today’s RNS and surprised as many that this hasn’t bagged (as per my email). Today’s finance deal is massive, you guys wanted updates, you got them.
You wanted to know the Atomic deal was moving forward and you got confirmation of financing, as per his reply the value of the asset has increased some 35% and will continue to increase with the value of oil.

Why some haven’t liked the dilution some also cannt see the wood for the trees. In my opinion this news is transformational.

What is scary is this hasn’t started to rerate (yet)!

Now what happens on Atomic deal closure when that NPV is added to our SP?

Surely the MM will want this to climb steadily rather than a massive re-rate which needs to happen.

I completely respect that he replied in the time and manor he did and I am now more confident than ever about my investment and seeing a massive increase in its value in the near term and see it as game changing yet the market hasnt woke up to it yet.

Reply just in, I am more than happy and will continue to add more so at current levels.

For me this should issue the BoooooooooooM

First, the facility is for the acquisition and is secured by the. Value of the asset. The funds from the facility are to be directed at the asset.

What you need to do is look at the value of the acquisition. The NPV of $185m was based on a $39/bbl oil price. Oil prices have increased by 35% since then thus increasing the value of the acquisition by $65m. The dilution of the $4 m representing the shares to the Atomic share holder is less than 6% of the increase of the value. There is very little dilution from the valuation of the company. Dilution from the issuance of shares only occurs if no value has been added.

No company buys it own shares in the market in such a way that you suggest for the reason you suggest.

Knowledgeable investors have more than praised this transaction.

You all on the Bulletin Boards are conspiracy theorists. Read the language "US based global investment firm". Their identity will be apparent in time when the loan agreement is signed. For now they have requested to remain this way for competitive reasons. Once identified the market will see we have a strong financial partner going forward. One who believes the energy sector is not going away and that assets are priced in the acquisition market for buyers due to the debt incurred in the sector when oil prices were at a much higher level.

Your concerns over $4 m worth of shares issued is shrapnel when one considers the value the assets acquired and thus the increase in the NAV of COPL.

Shaa I have emailed Arthur in relation to my previous post (he replied quickly last time)

In brief as I have explained a x expanded on a lot and given examples my question to re-cap my emails content are as follows:

*What is the settlement date for the $4m worth of shares?

*Can you buy these shares at current levels with cash in hand and settle higher?

*settling higher would mean option to “buy back” at no additional cost (as you would require less shares for settlement

*Do you intend to dilute the shares in issue further?

*Would you consider using dept finance from the $20m to settle the $4m worth of shares?

As always will update if/when I get a reply - GLA

Shaa would it be possible to use $4m out of the additional $20m to buy shares from the open market to close the deal out of rather than dilute?
This would only be an additional $1m per year on the repayment over 4 years.

Is this an option or possible ?

I mean if you were to buy shares at this level and the SP doubles it doesn’t cost you $4m if it bags it costs you $2m