Member Info for Charlie1984

Excellent RNS, nice to see the company communication with the market in relation to the new president recent changes.

We are not effected as we thought yesterday but Art has kindly confirmed it.

We again see the negativity from one or two posters that are apparently invested, my conclusion is they are not or the have a short open, there is no other way to describe why he continues to be negative in every post - please filter him guys GLA

NO!

This has been addressed today. This is on new licensing areas which he has suspended the drilling of for 6 months.

Atomic isn’t a new licence area, plus Art has also confirmed that no drilling is needed them only need to increase flow by miscible flooding.

He has also mention Coal Creek which is an asset close but similar to that of Atomic. He said the hope would be to carry out horizontal drilling again this is a proven resource and not a new licence area.

It’s been mentioned but it needs mentioning again.

COPL will no longer feel pressured or bullied into anything to do with their Nigeria Asset.

If panthers wanted to play hard ball their stance will need to change as we no longer need them. I say no longer need them as in terms of near future finance as we have a revenue stream from Atomic.

We can now hold out for big money once asset is drilled and proven.

This will secure us a much better deal and offers for our share.

Atomic massively, massively strengthens our stance in Nigeria with partners.

I don’t think some PIs appreciate this, I really don’t !

Agreeing with you and expanding for others

Guitar, exactly right. I have been and still are in companies with numerous assets and claims.

Until they are producing the business has no revenue, this means dilution for development costs and wages etc which can be a long drawn process and see PIs investments diluted along the way.

I mention this for a number of reasons, PIs are worried about the impact of delays to licensing.

Prior to Atomic deal the SP dropped from 0.52 to 0.2p (pricing in a delay IMO)
Prior to Atomic COPL dilution/raises was to cover costs and wages.
Without Atomic COPL would have underwent further dilution until it was in a revenue stream or sold something.

Atomic is proven, tried and tested, it is passed the development stage and in production. Oil prices are recovering.

Revenues coming in in the next month directly to COPL, will the buy $4m of shares of the market will they dilute further.

Interestingly the date for the shares to be issued isn’t given.
SP could multi-bag on finance in place RNS shares with date given for deal to be closed meaning we could be issuing a much smaller amount of shares.

Who gives a dam we know the maximum number at these levels, is only going to get less and better for PIs the closer the date of issue gets, with the figures PIs have quoted on here gains are still life changing - GLA

Looking for a flat or blue close ........ seems to have turned direction heading back north GLA

Shaa - just breaking this down

The Biden administration has suspended

“new oil and gas leasing and drilling permits”
on U.S. lands and waters for 60 days as officials move to reverse the energy and environmental policies of the Trump administration.

New oil and gas permits would be those that haven’t yet been issued or require to be applied for.

Atomic assets are operational

Coal Creek we are told is a similar set up to Atomic my take would be that the drilling of horizontal welds would be acceptable as this is and existing licence area.

Think my view is similar to that of others and we will not be effected.

However, this suspension for 6 months on licences and the cancellation of $9 billion pipe line should surely add a near term $5-15 per bbl oil as the US will look to rely on OPEC imports.

My view is Biden will look to price the drivers of gas guzzlers out of the market. Slowing production and relaying on imports will increase the cost of a barrel and ultimately fuel at the pump, will he also impost duty or tax on fuel as well or larger engine vehicles to stop people driving them?

Surely the suspension of “new licences” can only be a good think for COPL

Yes it’s a quick 20% but it’s also means that that 20% reduces the average price as well.
As a investment company you will find that those shares held are now at an average cost lower than that of the placing price they paid.
It de-risks the holding
Returns value thus lowering the average value.

They may sell all and take a profit

They may sell down a set amount i.e 4/5 and retain a free 20% carry.

What they were was a means to a end, we needed them to get finance, they needed us to make a profit, everyone wins!

In order to get from A to B you might need a taxi, that taxi might cost you but that doesn’t mean the taxi driver owes you.

A mutual agreement that is of benefit to both parties. Not everything needs to have a positive nor does it need a negative spin.

Think of it as playing the game - GLA

SL100, off topic no I havent given up in PREM. I continue to add and average down. (Some may say mental).
I’m not going to lie being heavily down in any share can have it’s issues behind the scenes. I probably not the only one that is married and telling your wife your £100k down yet you continue to average down does not make for a happy conversation. However, if I timed it correctly and that £100k made me £500k or £1m it would have been a different story “I told you so love”.
I still believe in the assets and the potential. AIM is full of crazy stories not all survive but some that do can make life changing money. Investing in juniors or exploration is a gamble it’s either there or it’s not a d that’s why most start of with a very low MC as they have some eminent of failure priced in.
Another issue is location Nigeria, Zimbabwe etc it’s risk v reward for the brave.

A problem with investing is timing the entry point into the lifecycle correctly. Time it wrong and you can be heavily underwater. Time it correct and you can hit multi bags.

Think it was Yacht a poster in here that put his last £12k into a rock bottom SP at that point this stock some had thought would go under and he made 6 figure profits and a free carry.

Maybe I was a little to harsh on LB28 as I to have been there and bought the t-shirt. Northern Rock, Cosalt, SBLM etc the list goes on!

I have also missed life changers VGM bought my first ever shares with my extra monthly wage £1400 at 0.9p got me 143k shares. I was talked into selling them by my first partner who doubted my research and gut instinct (long story / very controlling) those share went to over £2.85 with the Chinese wanting the gold.

If I can offer any advice it would be:

* Don’t talk down a share you hold
* Don’t invest more than you can efforts to lose
* DYOR, don’t take advice from a BB
* When you sell be grateful of the profit you make and don’t deny others of theirs.
* Stick buy your decision to buy or sell and wear you big boy pants.
* If you have done your research don’t let the daily SP fluctuation effect you judgement.
* Have rules. (I learned the hard way) top slice or taking a profit it’s up to you. Remember you will never be a millionaire selling at a loss.

I believe this is a share that will be life changing from this pint in. The timing in the life cycle biting Atomic is a game changer. We invest and let those in charge deliver. Just hope everyone here manages to hold long enough to see those life changing sums and wish you all the very best. GLA

Why be positive?

Ok LB28 might as ask everyone one to slit their wrists........ get a grip!!!!

Seriously, there is a saying if you have nothing positive to say don’t say anything.

I am down nearly £100k in PREM and have been holding over there for 8 years.
I have had my fair share of negative and positive posts but now sit on the sidelines and watch. It is easy to become emotionally or financially attached which isn’t good!

Art has again updated the market via an interview, he comes across upbeat and positive.
If your invested and your negative because you can't afford to lose what you have invested then your investing more that you can afford.
My opinion would be your underwater and angry about it, your negativity is directed towards the company and the CEO. Maybe set a RNS notification and take a break from the BB because seriously it’s effecting your mental health.

Had Atomic not been forth coming your wait to recover your losses would have been dependent on Nigerian licensing and progression of licensing area.

Atomic is a blessing to a lot of LTH, some can see that dilution was a positive and a requirement of finance, as a poster to reply to your opinion on recent dilution you cannt see the wood for the trees in my opinion.

We are weeks away from game changing news. Come back a d b! Tch if he doesn’t deliver, however, when he does deliver maybe you can cheer the F up or have a exit point that you can safely get our and move on.
Investing isn’t for everyone, some count there chickens before they hatch.
Sometimes people just dont like waiting for the incubation period.
We are on the middle of a “GLOBAL PANDEMIC” the board is working extremely hard and aggressively to deliver this deal.
He has given a date of the 15th February ish (provided by finance company) go chill. You will thank me for it.

Good luck all, as previously posted today’s SP doesn’t reflect the future potential near term SP on news. Therefore, the current sP is irrelevant unless your looking to trade or sell out near term.

*Monthly updates to market on production, where we are at and where we are going as we increase production.

*Coal Creek mentioned again last time it was another acquisition he was wanting, today he spoke about drilling horizontally wells (is this now a done deal once we receive funding)

*Regarding the current SP completely irrelevant if your holding IMO holders will see a massive rerate on news of finance and acquisition being signed off.

* That re-rate and SP rise will then be sustained by monthly updates.

* If you are a long term holder this deal was made unexpectedly, you were waiting for Nigerian Licensing which may or may not come anytime soon due to Covid. If the market doesn’t believe fine but the SO is holding the current acquisition NOV value of 15% of Atomic £26m ish.

* This SP will look like a gift horse in 3/4 weeks this confident are taking advantage and loading up.

* Art has changed the way he talks about things the context is as if it’s a done deal his body language confident

* Only mate take but this Atomic deal and Coal Creek are nailed on finance is progressing and expecting everything at once I am calling finance early 11th Feb and acquisition signed off 15th Feb so the Market has little to no time to react and we see a massive re-rate.

Bob as you say Atomic is hassle free in that respect.

However, drill a few wells on the Nigerian licence prove it, sell our share and move on with the riches.

Bob - he has already mentioned Coal Creek this is in the Sam geographical location.

I wouldn’t be surprised if there are a few companies in Atomic position in the area.

Bought licence areas at the peak, spent millions on drilling and development now find after Covid and a drop oil over the last 18 months they are struggling to make repayment and need to sell up.

Yes could be a good option to sell the Art then by the monetary value back off the market, if they know the deal is going though would make sense to buy down here at these levels then benefit from multiples of the current MC on RNS update knowing arts aggressive stance to increase production.
You never know lots of large trades going through for weeks, would have hoped to have seen one or two more TR-1 by now so here is hoping - GLA

Shaa- there is buying pressure as soon as that starts forcing the rise PIs will see the buy signal, the closer this gets to news (15 Feb) the more PIs will start taking positions and this will be rising under buying pressure, sentiment and positivity.
If licensing news drops (31.01) or around that time expect this buying pressure to massively increase as it opens up more possibilities for revenue stream and value.
Any blue day is a good day, just need to keep the flushing and churning going.
Things looking good and 4-5% steady rise everyday until mid February isn’t to be sniffed at, no spikes just flushing traders and profit takers out at various levels will only strengthen the rise on positive news.
Sitting happy here and will have more funds available Friday when invoices are paid. GLA onwards and upwards.

We are technically factoring a future SP by using 1 slice of news:

Atomic additional value:
- Increased production from flow rates using missable flooding
- Increased NPV from acquiring additional parties interests
- Increased profits running with Oil recover prices
- No requirement to drill so costs reduced

Additional Value away from Atomic:

- Coal Creek also in the same geological as Atomic which will also used missable flooding
- Updates on licensing (31.01 -poss)

Plenty more additional ways to increase SP sp expecting a SP in the 1.5-2p range on Atomic Deal alone isn’t pie in the sky.
If updates on licensing we could jump 0.5p without it SP will not be effected as current SP us the value of 15% NPV of Atomic. Company imo with current SP is the bottom and de-Risked with things only set to improve - GLA

Calculations are straight forward

NPV is £184m ($185m + $65m (35%increase) = $250m

$250m divided by current exchange USD/£ = 1.36

$250 div 1.36 = £184m

£184m divided by current MC (£26m) = 7

You then take the current SP (@£26m) = 0.26

NPV rate is there for a factor of 7 times greater than the 0.26p

0.26 (SP) x 7 (NPV MC Factor on current MC)

= 1.83p

Additional $65m not 65%

Franbo- Licensing update would be class right now and almost forgotten as the focus has been on Atomic and the potential there, everyone is now overlooking Nigeria

The NPV is the difference between the present value of cash inflows and the present value of cash outflows over a period of time.
You dont need to calculate this as it was a figure used in the RNS dated 16th December 2020 - $185m

I emailed Arthur last week he confirmed in a reply which I posted a d also on a Proactive Interview last week that this figure has now increased by 35% which is 65% as original figures were at $35bbl oil and last weeks price was sat at $51bbl oil as you can see with the increase in oil the profits obtained from recovery will only increase