Member Info for Charlie1984

This falls on line with what I am hearing

Art has made several low ball offers and Cuda owners aren’t happy

If he knows there is a window, Hadron dumping aggressively , PIs cashing out, warrants. Temporally suppress the SP he can argue the low ball valuation for Cuda share as we own 57.7% (hey look what the market values Atomic at we where X before RTO)

Given we know he has cash in the bank
The value of the warrants
The $20m remaining headroom
Monthly revenues profit minimum of £1.1m

Wipe out Cuda

CNOOC might not like Arts aggressive stance and might not like shelling out at the front end.
They will not have a say as they only own 15% so he could be pressuring both.

If he isn’t going for the jugular he could be away to go mental with the drilling program and hike up the front end cost that Cuda just cannt afford to pay increasing their loan account and if they are defaulting might be receiving FA

Cannt imagine CNOOC will be happy either as they are also shelling out or move aside.

Either way we buckle Cuda and possibly CNOOC or we have a massively increased drilling program with increased bopd

I don’t see a negative it’s not as if we are an exploration company we are a producer we have proven reserves.

And to throw the curve ball in he might be announcing another miscible flooding play

A month or two will be completely different here.
In the mean time you have the freedom to access your investment, top up if you can or need to sell then so be it.
We waited 6 months for this and some idiots cannt see the wood for the trees and it’s because they counted the value of the magic beans before they give them chance to grow.

There will be a correction on true market value ……… GLA

Blue finish traders went quiet as they got their cheap entry price from the bed wetters selling.
And look no dumping of shares ……… funny that!

Goldfish but your still here ?

Promised news flow over the last 12 months!

OPL226 out of our hands.

Completed acquisition of Atomic with updates on production.

Q1 accounts issued
Q2 accounts due but month end
Updates on bopd output
Updates on increased operational wells at Cole Creek

What more news do you want ?

Do you know what Warrants are?
Can you explain why your shocked to see them?
Can you also tell me why your unhappy with the updates as we are getting regular updates for things on our control, those out with! It’s not Magic you W.S. t Art to make things up ?

We all know the warrants where there. Dont see this as a negative. It’s not as if it’s a surprise!

Strangely I got shot down again for suggesting a recovery in WTI price.
Plenty of PIs on this BB saying back to $50 a barrel. Done even pressed on $39
(Supported by nothing more than a wet finger in the air)

Nothing goes up in straight lines there is a trading pattern and reasons for the drop.

WTI dropped a several weeks back from $73 down to $ 65 ish
Then it dropped the time before this from $71 to $64 ish then $72 down to $63ish and is again recovering.

Reasons for previous drops

- 400,000 bopd global increase in output (over reaction)
- Covid cases increasing (increased testing over reaction)

Imo
- 400,00bopd increase - drop in the ocean in comparison
- Cases spike with Covid and are now retracing (something the world globally needs to live with but more testing = increased cases)
- Demand increasing
- Global Economy getting back to normal

Media doesn’t show increased testing that can show or report increased numbers cases.
Markets seem to have a knee jerk reaction after the drop seen at the start of the pandemic wiping billions of the LSE.
Debt is minimal for a producing company
We have monthly revenues
A raft of positive news

And like mentioned you can listen to the traders or remember the fundamentals why you bought in.

I am all for a balanced arguments but not for those that offer nothing to support their negative or positive posts (the valence works both ways)

I have tried to offer balance in way of research, rational and calculations.

However, as seen sometime things are out of our control.
Hadron selling and PIs following them.

Looks like we have got traction and should start progressing well from here. Just need news and volume now GLA

AM more or less stated in a email that there would be a window for PIs to sell up and get out.

I think he expected some selling but I think he also expected a rise with it.

What he didn’t expect was hadron to dump everything.

Now if he has used a window of SP stabilisation it will have worked to our advantage.

No one is going to get caught in a P&D if they are Newley invested.

Hadron and those PIs that wanted out are out.

Serious investors continue to hold.

Sellers dried up

SP starts to gain daily momentum and rises (seeing this today)

Volume will pick up with sentiment

Sentiment and positivity will come from updates

- Q2 accounts (due by 31 Aug)
- Cole Creek ( 2 of 12 wells producing this should increase)
- BOPD increase on miscible flooding
- If responding better than anticipated a clearer idea of by how much and possible increase to targeted maximum output and shorter roadmap
- Additional development of our 50,000 acres
- Update on OPL226
- Update on possible acquisition
- Update on Cuda
- Gas supply contract for 5 years, additional storage capacity in place

LB28 you know people can read your posting history ?

If you where getting paid a £1 a post on Copl you wouldn’t need to work ………… wait up !

It’s actually scary reading posts on here

Either PIs have slit personality disorders or they are clearly trading.
Must be a thing that the out “no opinion”

Either positive inter the heading or really negative, must think people won’t guess what they are up to.

Still hanging around but it’s a sinking ship! So jump then guys, wait you already have now looking to climb back on once you convince enough to sell to get back in lower!

Fat fingers

Do this stack up ?

So how people are spouting we are overvalued ……..

The market hasn’t valued in the NPV of Atomic LB

Reference MC and SP before suspension what was the value MC then?

Post RTO what has the market values Atomic as ?

Very simply MC Pre - MC Post = Atomic Value

Does this mean stack up - NO !

Why didn’t it take off after suspension ……….

The TR-1 answered that

Hadron aggressively dumped nearly 6% of the company and killed sentiment and spooked PIs would be my opinion

Q2 will show the market that we have monthly revenues.

Update to bopd will show where we are going into our final month of Q3

With the selling out of the way by Hadron this i is s a perfect opportunity to buy imo and have posted previously why.

Production is increasing at Barron Flats using miscible flooding

2 of 12 Wells operational and producing at Cole Creek.

Update on over all bopd from both is due

Update on progress of standing on OPL226 is due anytime

No one expected an opportunity to be buying down here but not many are capitalising on it apart for the traders that have sold out and now calling 20s on nothing more than finger in the air, they don’t care just want a lower buy back price.

We know production is increasing. We have gas think the market has stabilised. HSBC must be investors accounts as they would not have bought last week then sold at a loss.
So likely trading accounts of rainbow chasers.

Is this worth more or less than re-RTO some here think it’s overvalued even though they told us they where buying months ago before suspension so what’s changed?
Well that’s obvious there position ………. Ignore the fluff sit tight. Cash generative and updates due just need a good RNS and volume. MC doesn’t even reflect NPV so happy to continue to load up - GLA

However, good article and thank you for sharing, looks like the government is finally getting serous about production and tapping into reserves which might mean a shift to awarding more licences.

Did you read this article in its entirety?

They havent worked on the licence block since it was granted over 30 years ! It’s no wonder it’s been take off them.

It also reads as if they have a few issues with court cases and claims which will not be helping them.

The government will want to see investment and progress with licence areas, use it or lose it springs to mind.

No issues imo I regards to OPL226

Let’s be honest about the rest-list.

0.6p was a lot lot lower than everyone expected.

I don’t thing anyone including Art expected Hadron to aggressively dump 5.8% of the company in 2/3 days let alone over 4% in the first day of re-list so I cannt imagine he is happy with them.

Surely it would have made more sense to sell down controlled into a constant rise and keep sentiment high (I’m guessing they don’t care) even if they would have got more for their stock, seems crazy and unpredictable.

Heyho, hadron and the bed wetters gone should start to rise steadily from her with no chance of a massive sell off as PIs offloading will now do so controlled and at verious future SP increments rather than because the SP has opened at 1.5-2p.

So regardless of Q2 accounts market knows we are at 2,200 bopd - I am expecting a further update on this to expand on miscible flooding output to give us an idea of potential Q3 figures with only 5 weeks left of the quarter they also will not be far behind.

RE: Cash is King17 Aug 2021 20:35
We raised £13m prior to suspension

Let’s use 1800 bopd ($68-28 costs=$40) x 90 days x 57.7%

1800bopd x $40 = $72,000 per day

72,000 x 90 (Q2) = $6,480,000

$6,480,000 x 57.7 = $3,738,960

$3,738,960 x 0.73 ( $/£) = £2,279,440

Or just Shy of £910,000 profit for each month of Q2

This should have increased by approx 10% so currently running at £12m profit a year at current output.

£1m a month

We have paid a lot of the costs upfront for miscible flooding so unsure how much we have spent but would say we should have at least £6.5m left (out of initial £13m) then add £2.7m on for Q2 and £1m for first month of Q3.
Could be up to £10.2m

Even if we safely say 50% of this has been invested into drilling wages etc I would assume £5m Cash in bank minimum.

Cuda owe us on loan account plus fees snd interest for their cost on top of this.

RE: Cash is King17 Aug 2021 20:38
Apologies £1m a month was at 2,000 so at 2,200 will be closer to £1.1m a month profit

LSE doesn’t like direct links, try this way:

https://twitter.com/mikec841/status/1428714987372093440?s=21

https://**************BFK68EiHfFtKwvwndsKxqw

Given the average PI on her said they couldn’t trade through HSBC I am not 100% sure it would be that.

More reasons for the SP being lower.

Did you see the TR-1 Tuesday ?

Hadron dumping 4.7% of the company
Likely dumped the remaining + 1%

That’s a good enough reason isn’t it ?

Strobe2007 “ WTI on a strong downward curve”

I have tracked WTI for months for the purpose of calculations and trends.

Given WTI has dropped twice in the last 8 weeks prior to this drop into a $64-65 range only to recover.
1st drop recovered to $73.18
2nd drop recovered to $71.26
3rd drop has found it’s bottom and stabilised for the last few day, expect it to climb from here.

Dont take my word for it pull up a 3 month chart.

Further more no chart goes up in a straight line, I should need to explain that either.

Lastly deal was done at $39 for Atomic and it was a good deal then.
So even at a retraced WTI price of $63.29 it’s still a fantastic deal now.