Member Info for Charlie1984

Thought I would drop in been busy with the new project in Thailand.
Fantastic to see the figures from the FD reserves. As TradingLad points out you can’t just make stuff up and feed it to the market, secondly in Arts interview I make note to the comments referring to the figures and him nearly falling off his chair.
Thirdly as TradingLad will be aware as he is also in the industry a lot of these reserve figures are often played down and in some cases company’s see up to X3.
I was very happy to see the drop and load up again sub 19p.
What a lot of PIs don’t understand is that in early stages the SP will fluctuate on share flipping from raises and PIs trading in and out.
Most PIs will have sold as they cannt hold longer than a few weeks without getting itch feet.
If you have done you research like many have here you will realise that SF and CC are producing with additional wells been drilled.
We have an offer on the table for Cuda and will know if it’s successful or not inside the next 2 weeks.
This increases our holding to 85% and 100% of FD.
I am also confident that the taps will be opened up significantly in the near future.
We have infrastructure in place and a lot of management/directors with valuable hands on experience.
FD reserves will be getting reviewed and I expect these figures to be updated in the Ridder Scott report. I am expecting to see this with the Q4 accounts inside the next month - IMO 13-14 Feb.
There is continuous heavy buying in the background I am expecting to see a TR-1 - 3% is approx 5.7m so we shouldn’t be to far off seeing who is loading up.
This was a fantastic investment opportunity with out FD, with it it’s become a once in a life time opportunity.
Ignore the daily SP it will arrive at its destination in due course. GLA

We are NOT on AIM

Try buying in two smaller trades

Imo it’s a very big positive.

Remember we want the 27% share so $15-20m is a good buy those talking about $30-35m for a 50% discount would be buying Cuda in its entirety- debt so would be getting everything near for that.

After all cannt be two many wanting to buy 27% of The assets which means they have no control over spending, decisions etc etc and need to fork out millions upfront

Interestingly and finance deal on the headroom for Cuda will surely be hedged higher than the Atomic finance, the Atomic finance is hedged to a level of bopd so once that is surpassed due to increased outputs from miscible flooding, with the increasing WTI price surely this becomes a catalyst with or without Cuda stake for a re-rate.
Then throw in a Oil discovery at FD which is a gusher and the market needs to stand up and take notice.

Given a fair evaluation pre suspension on OPL226 of £10-15m then you look at the MC after increased production and see at the market haven’t even factored in the purchase valuation of Atomic at $39 a barrel never mind 105% increase.

Frustrating but once the market believes this will re-rate and take off very quickly imo then continue to rise gradually

Interestingly costs will be reduced to $10 per barrel by this time next year as we know the pull back in cost starts from Q4 which is where we are now. So there is a gradually decline to achieve this.

FD cheeky smile and also mentions that they have a oil discovery at FD and mentions the size of the licence area 48,000 acres.
We know that they have made an application for confidentiality on this so must be of some interest.

So talks are still ongoing with Cuda to acquire their 27%.

We are self sustaining and operating at a profit

Oil has been hedged as part of the finance deal at $61 which when you take into account they also fix a contract on the gas which has more than balanced the hedge given the recent dramatic increases in gas costs.

OPL226 things sound to be getting easier and closer but I guess only time will tell.

Over all very happy with the interview.

Not the RNSs everyone wants to see but PR never the less and again Arthur noting that accounts for Q3 will be published on the 15 November.

I’m happy just going to sit and wait for this to adjust to true value, way undervalued and even the company cannt get their head round the market valuation.

Fill your boots - GLA

Start asking CGO what the deal was and what’s happening https://contango-holdings-plc.co.uk/board/

New COPL research note just issued-

https://www.dropbox.com/s/6lrky7irx6p0xck/COPL_Initiation_11Oct21_ARC.pdf?dl=0

WTI and Crude continuing to climb.

WTI breaking the $82 per barrel fluctuating slightly brut very positive.
Every $ increase is pure profit. Market will need to stand up and take notice soon. This is in for a massive re-rate imo

If the company thought that shorter/s where in action working together surely it would make sense to conduct a share buy back out of the blue. After all the current share price is lower than pre-suspension?

£2.2m would be approx 5%
Given production is going up and we still have $20m loan facility headroom plus a chunk of cash in the bank.
The other option surely would be for directors and BM to start buying which would increase sentiment and depending on the volume would burn the shorters in both instances.

However, doing nothing and not even reporting it to the FSA would suggest as frustrating as it is he doesn’t really care!

To be far everyone has called this wrong even the market. Let’s be honest and true to ourselves know one of cover to see this down here apart from those professionals shorting it (not talking about your average PI).

Thought we would have heard something on Cuda, I was under the impression that they where supposed to be disclosing offers made.

Q3 is over how long or how quickly until Arthur can get news out is now the question on everyone’s lips.

Updates on the 6 wells at federal deep is due.

Update of production increase at Cole Creek and update on additional wells there.

Then as we know Barron Flats where miscible flooding is in full flow, and exceeding expectations so expecting another sizeable jump up in bopd.

Q4 is the quarter that we start to see pull backs a reduction in costs.

WTI at $79 a barrel deal was done at $39 that’s + $40 over 100% increase. This is all additional profits.

Gas prices are rising but the majority of the injection was done when low so just what we need now and Arthur has a contract in place which he done before the huge increase.

Honestly cannt work this out.

I posted earlier on LSE so just reiterating this:

3,800 bopd x (WTI $79 - $28 costs) x 360 x 0.73 (exchange) = £50,930,640 (profit per year no PE)

Current MC is £49m

Even if you look at dept repayment next year the reduction in costs of say $5 per barrel will give us £416,100 additional on top towards repayments on that 3800 bopd which I think is and achievable short term target.

What is OPL226 priced at £15-20m meaning market is valuing Atomic which is a producing asset with infrastructure at £29-34m

I just keep loading up as and when the funds come in. I still standby my calculations and think at some point this will just re-rate and very quickly.

Looks like there is a group of individuals with a load of shares shorting the company. They let it rise to a degree then start again look at to peaks and lows of the chart currently 3/4 trading patterns clearly visible.

Just doing some fag packet calculations to earn the same in profit as our current £50m MC

Cost also reduce as we move closer to the end of December (but not a factor)

Costs $28
WTI $ 79
BOPD 3,800
Days per year 360
Exchange rate 0.73

$51 x 3,800 bopd x 360 x 0.73 = £50,930,640 profit per year.

This is clear profit and not calculating in any PE ratios

The reduction in costs as we move into next year should pay a large percentage of the repayments.

Strange trading activity if you look at a long of the decent size trades they are few and offer rather than large and one off, looks like someone might have a short open in the background and the smaller larger trades are used to drop the SP so looks like the traders are making money by opening shorts close once they are finished selling reopen once it rises and then repeat.

WTI closing in on $80 a barrel.

Remember Atomic was a good deal at $39 when Arthur put pen to paper. Now at over $79 per barrel that’s over 100% increase and looking to continue higher.

Q3 finished so expecting the accounts in the near future.
Miscible flooding continuing to react beyond expectations, so expect a jump in bopd.

Additional wells being drilled at Cole Creek and currently producing on 4 which could now be 5 wells.

6 wells getting drilled at Federal Deep which we are awaiting the results on.

Getting closer and closer to OPL266 which was the reason many PIs bought in here.

Oil and a run, demand increasing, reduced exploration and investment since its drop and due to Covid (3/4years) so things are going to get interesting with some predicting $100-140 per barrel.

Potential acquisition of Cuda stake or purchase of the lease adjacent to us.

Gas contract in place with prices locked in.

We have cash in the bank

We shouldn’t be far away from annual turnover being more than our current MC

Costs start to reduce as we work through Q4

Consolidation completed so having 160m share in issue will look very attractive to big II.

Currently getting 2 for 1 on relist price after suspension.

Increasing WTI + Increasing BOPD + Decreasing Costs = MASSIVE Re-rate GLA

Way undervalued just sit on your hands and you will be rewarded, if you can load up do so as it’s a gift at these levels imo

Read the board daily stopped posting it’s clear who is here and trading the life out of this stock. Arthur needs to get some positive news flow out.

I wouldn't get to excited today. Most PIs cannt trade or cannt get quotes and the consolidation means that frankly things are a little messy. This shows with only 85 trades.
Expecting this to be sorted by next week and then we should be expecting the news flow. Any RNS update today would have just been a waist imo
Just need to cement the base MC above the £50m MC with millions rather than billions of shares in issue the attraction should be their for the big ii

Looking forward to the updates and the SP getting some traction - GLA

Just adding to HFB post

We are due anytime the update on FD 6 wells to be drilled.
Q3 finished this week and we should be on top of the figures to put into accounts for the quarter.
Another big jump in bopd output and WTI rising a d cost reducing sounds like the perfect storm - GLA

Hope everyone has been rounding up to the nearest 100k or 1m shares to make the consolidation on the 1st straight forward

Yes currently interest only
As per Art discussion the hope is to be producing 5000 bopd by 2022

Net back reduce the costs even if we said by $5 per barrel and the recent increase from $69 to $76 (if we stay here or above would see $12 per barrel extra profit

So even at 5000bopd x 0.57 %x $12 x 30 (days) is giving us over $1m per month towards the repayments.

This is on reduced costs and increased oil price from this time last month additional revenue

Yearly profits by Q4 will be more than our correct MC

SP is bonkers

Yes WTI trading at $76.45 and Brent breaking the $80 mark which is the highest it’s been in 3 years