The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
The sheep follow each other if they didn’t why are they selling down here. Crazy !
Just shows that regardless of a profit at under 0.6p or if we opened at 2p they would have still been selling.
What they aren’t looking at is the growth (they just see a profit as a profit) , miscible flooding has been performing better than expected, so if that continues I think we are looking at 5,000 bopd by year end.
Now to give you an idea of how well you need to take the last RNS 3 weeks ago and today’s RNS update.
In those 3 weeks bopd have jumped from 1800 to 2200, on the forecast this was expected to happen in 6 weeks, early indications therefore suggest that miscible flooding is reacting 100% better or twice as fast as originally forecasted.
I have banged the drum about underestimating and over performing. This is a perfect example of this.
https://twitter.com/mikec841/status/1427537644486078473?s=21
https://twitter.com/mikec841/status/1427531844078211072?s=21
MM want shares ………. Loving this top up heaven.
Closed at 0.38 and carried out a RTO and sat here? Do the maths ?
Onwards and upwards …….. lets let the SP do the talking now guys GLA
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2021/08/breaking-buhari-signs-pib-into-law/
Things are getting more and more positive, the stars are aligning !!!!
Yes this is a miracle Jamie and he really has turned water into wine, and with the bread he will feed his shareholders, things stories and dreams are made of !
Well guys the that’s that, suspension lifted and Re-list tomorrow at 08:00 hrs.
The light at the end of the tunnel is actually a rainbow, those lucky enough to have held through suspension have well and truly caught this one.
Will be holding onto these firmly and ridding this one out.
Standing by my calculations and happy to hold and add on open (if I can) £20 x 2 isa for me and the wife.
We have open at 08:00 hrs
Zak Mir interview mid day
(Could this mean possible production/update RNS for the opening and discuss in interview)
Q2 accounts due
BOPD update
Will be checking in but this is going to be mental
No1 on the leader board for gains
Most talked about stock
ii & PIs hoovering up and sells
Social media and LSE going to be mental.
Like a kid at Christmas, different is we all know that what we want we are getting……… one in a million, once in a life time opportunity GLA
Devilbhoy- 88e nonsense.
88e wasnt the only share mentioned in my thread i mentioned ukog and msmn as well in the post before did I not?
I used them as examples of shares that I’m the past have risen over 500% on sentiment in a very short space of time.
88e was used as it’s the latest Oil stock that has risen on sentiment.
It is complete nonsense as your correct we cannt compare the two stocks!
After all -
88e for one is still an explorer, they still haven’t produced and oil, they haven't got any infrastructure, they also have no money to develop the project and will require finance or dilution to keep the lights on or pay wages.
Doesn’t matter they have a MC of £320m and a high of £640m ish
COPL had a MC on close of £38m , we know that this doesn’t reflect any value for Atomic.
Value of Atomic is not only asset value, the value comes from having proven resources 114 mmboe , working capital £13m, infrastructure, drilled wells, engineering team on-site in place, Cole Creek, additional licences (applied for and approved), revenue stream, miscible flooding ongoing (month 5), possibility of increasing holding by acquiring Cuda ($20m finance headroom already in place), $1.5m paid for increase in gas capacity along with 5 year contact, conflict fee location, pipelines in place, possibility of multiple layers to the resource (like neighbours), additional assets, producing 2000 bopd (will increase with miscible flooding), OPL266 licensing, a share of up to 450,000 bopd (much more than what 88e will ever see) with a possibility of increasing our hand should it be worth our while (however why we wait Atomic now covers the bills and brings in revenue)
What i am trying to point out that some PIs will not compare stocks as it’s nonsense to them but they believe something that isn’t producing or has no infrastructure is worth less than a company with the opposite.
I am all for a debate so please tell me why in your opinion you feel 88e should be worth more than COPL a producing Oil company (in Atomic) , with possibly bigger plays than 88e with its OPL226 play?
Realistically I’m seeing assets excluding Atomic worth £38-40m
Atomic minimum value of 1.2-1.6p.
Relist price for me is therefore 1.6-2p
Given the market believes 88e is worth £320m that sees us as 2-2.15p (minimum, they have nothing)
We have: proven reserves, wells in place, infrastructures, cash in bank, gas contacts, miscible flooding, conflict free.
Given they have been double that MC with no oil can we assume minimum market value could be between
2-4.3p
Give we have OPL226 licence could add 1-1.5p instantly with sentiment rising on the possibility of a slice of up to 450,000 bopd you could see why the market could want all over this.
What we do know is:
Open price :Art wants those out that don’t believe in him, and those in that do.
We have seen the emails him telling PIs to sell up and get out as soon as possible (if they don’t believe) .
He will give this window then boom, updates will land.
Then a big F Y to them and karma for the abusive behaviour and emails they have subjected him too. Don’t expect him to give them more than he need to imo
As we draw ever closer to re-list and hopefully a lot of positive RNS updates, I want to grab everyone’s attention and views!
How will the markets react on open??
Calculations and PE ratios a side.
I reflect on a few other stocks that went up rapidly on sentiment, positivity and buying pressure once the herd arrived.
We will see sellers it’s inevitable but I don’t think they will get back in cheaper as PIs and ii hoover up the stock.
Being at the start of the life cycle with a 40+ year life at the start of an upward curve. The MC should continue to rise and grow.
There are others but a few examples below:
MSMN went from 8.6p to over 44p in a week on sentiment and positivity a good few years ago (no oil rise of +500%)
88e hit £624m MC April 2021 again no oil. (Rise 500% +)
UKOG went mental the other year from 1.5-2p to over 11p (rise 550-730%) again didn’t hit the oil the market expected.
So can we see a couple or few days of 100% + then a gradual tick up as news flow flows in positive RNSs, PIs and ii will be searching the markets for safe havens like COPL (after all we have oil, infrastructure and ability to increase production. We also still have the OPL226 card up our sleeve)
I was trying to find the max MC of COPL (not that easy as a lot of historical charts are locked due to suspension - anyone any idea on this anyone? )
This would be reflective of market sentiment and value of Nigeria and issuing of licence for OPL226, as at some point it must have spiked with market sentiment and thought of it landing previously.
I am bringing OPL226 up as we are again inside 60 days of the deadline in which the have to cancel the licence allocation, so we could possible see updates on this. Further to support this is tax cuts and Nigerian government looking for investment to increase their revenues, like everyone else they have been smashed by Covid-19 and cuts to outputs / exports, the taxes of which contribute to some 80% of the government’s income.
Certainly going to get very interesting nothing quite like this out there.
•New prospectus agreed by FCA
•Returning from a suspension following a RTO
•+40 year life at the beginning of is cycle
•Upward production curve
•Miscible flooding to support bopd output increase
•$1.5m to increase Gas capacity and 5 year contact for NG
•114m barrels of oil reserves (potential to increase)
•Possible multi layer resource
•Additional licences and acres to drill
•Possible increase in ownership
•Cash generative
•Slice of OPL226 of up to 450,000 bopd (ability to increase position)
•Possibility of additional acquisitions
•Additional drilling rigs and programs to follow
•Cole Creek
•Increase of shareholder value
I’m sure there are a few I have missed but you get the idea. It’s going to be big ! GLA
Will the update fall to catch opening of the Canadian exchange?
Explorer to Producer - RTO has made us cash generative.
It’s very simple!
If you believe in this share are the possibilities of growth then buy or hold.
If you just want a quick flip and want to take your profit just sell and move on.
Frustratingly we probably didn’t need to see FCA notice today to know we are close. We just needed to check the increased group of serial de-rampers appear.
Horses for courses, use your filter buttons, you have to ask yourself why the are waisting so much time in something they feel isn’t going to do as well as everyone else believes without having a clear agenda.
Don’t know why the ticks appeared as ?
RTO completed ?
Prospectus approved ?
Awaiting RNS with re-list date - GLA
Atomic Oil and Gas LLC, Pipeco LLC and membership interests in southwestern production corp.
Fantastic imagine OPL226 update in the coming g weeks as well.
Time to sit back and relax WoW
I think we can agree that there are some very fact full posts.
Some very good research.
Finger pointing - one hand at Art one hand at FCA
What will the SP return at, what is the true value?
In hindsight - many saying it needs to have a minimum value on open as they could have made more money else where.
Let’s be honest with each other there is a lot that don’t hold here they want a cheap entry price.
There are those that see a “future target price” as an actual open price (and will be disappointed)
Then there are those that know that the open price will not reflect the true or current value.
The SP on open will allow PIs in and out - full stop!
From this point the SP will increase on sentiment, positivity and buying pressure.
We know Q2 accounts are ready to be submitted but held back for re-list purposes.
Miscible flooding continues in the background and with it increases bopd.
There is possibilities of news on multiple fronts to strengthen PIs investment and now nearing 6 weeks till the start of Q4
The wood for the trees factor for me is we can expect or assume an opening price of 1.2-1.8p (I don’t think this is out of the question.
My view which is a personal one is to be happy initially with 0.8-1p this gives approx 100-150% on close price.
What I will say is I have a spread sheet that accounts for hundreds of calculations using various inputs - I know from this that the SP continues to grow and for me this is a fantastic hold medium & long term.
So unless your selling on open I wouldn’t worry to much about the opening SP as it will not stay there for long.
I wouldnt worry about the de-rampers telling you your wrong as there plan is to sow the seed of doubt and get under your skin, insult you or stalk you over social media platforms……. All part of a plan to disrupt snd unsettle current holder.
GLA - hopefully updates soon
Nothing will be RNSed that can effect the prospectus being accepted /agreed as it will effect the rest-list!
M22C
Let’s put it another way
The quote of 1800 bopd lands with Q1 accounts.
Now given we have increased to 1800 bopd that would mean if you and everyone else reading those accounts would know no change would be seen in Q2 figures (as per your reply increase will not be seen till Q3 accounts)
Now given that Q1 was delayed. Q2 are pushed back to 31 August why would you tell the market what to expect?
After all when they land everything would already be priced in.
However, if there was a dramatic spike in bopd ……… what does that do to sentiment?
I mean those words “Barron Flats is responding beyond expectation” - RNSed after re-list!
Don’t show your full hand, sometimes you only leave the Ace turned.
We will see if our source is correct by the end of this month
As I said in my post
“We are now into month 5 there could be another cheeky one liner telling the market the current bopd as seen in Q1 accounts again showing a higher bopd than the end of Q2”
I am hearing that miscible flooding is reacting better than expected. Given the price initial jump after 4 months of 50% I believe a similar jump will be seen by the time Q2 accounts are issued as they have till the 31 August.
This said I agree with the 2500 bopd Shaa quoted.
He has also heard the same information as me which was quoted from an email so let’s wait and see
M22C
You maybe taking the instant 50% out of context.
Understanding miscible flooding you will realise that it’s instant as it take sometime.
i.e the rate of input is not directly associated to the output.
Arthur Millholland, President & CEO, commented:
"With the acquisition closing on 16 March 2021, the Company's production averaged 1,220 bbl./day oil (gross) 706 bbl./d oil net for the term of 16 days until 31 March 2021. Current oil production has increased 50% to approximately 1800 bbl./d (gross) due the commencement of increased gas injection volumes on April 1 at the Company's Barron Flats miscible flood project.
Q1 is up to 31 March
Q2 is up to 30 June (extension to submit up to 31 August)
Q3 is up to 30 September