Member Info for Charlie1984

https://twitter.com/mikec841/status/1385529157082288131?s=21

Jeffrey Auld sold his last company to the Chinese for $4billion

He has transformed this company, now debt free and moving forward.

Last years accounts SP true value is 5pps

Got to ask what’s going on lots of large sell trades but SP climbing. Suggest something is happening behind the scenes

Onwards and upwards folks GLA

Numerous sells at 500k most days that should have read

The big selling was the investor who purchased a large amount of shares.
Once the SP recovers these guys sell out and move on to the next one taking their profits.
Nothing to be concerned about, the SP holding up well and the selling also meet with some decent buying.

Surely this is it done

Most days have seen 500k sell
Two days ago 4.5m sell
The the 2 x 6.6m sells and some pocket change sells

Should tick up nicely if that’s them done

Based on last years accounts Jeffrey Auld expected the SP to be at 5 pps

Given the accounts for Q1 should show more upside I’m expecting gains to be made for sure.

Given reservoirs have no pressure issues it’s a case of drilling more wells to increase production

All gas extracted is tied straight into the network so everything that is extracted that can be sold is sold.
I think the interview made reference to 15MM a day think that’s something like $90k just in gas production a day.
Throw in an increase in BOPD and look at figure for 2,500-3,000 bopd with no debt we are in a good position

The share price in Canada will not effect anything on LSE.
Yes it’s strange but the market here or there haven’t seen revenue, costs, overheads etc
Things will move on the prospect, however there is no even split of shares, buying or seller there doesn’t effect us, so what’s happening over there I wouldn’t use as a crystal ball.

That a side the slight delay to trading is only fueling the fire.
I am expecting XXXX bopd to have been achieved.
Experience with gas injection suggests that they would have achieved better than expected.

XXXX bopd will be calculated into the prospectus with costs and PE ratio

Market will be informed that things are going well or better than expected and they are looking to increase from XXXX to YYYY bopd and update the market in the coming weeks.
I also expecting initial target to be hit early with Art issuing new higher bopd target.

Some will ultimately want to sell on open and cash in, I am of the opinion that this will not effect the SP. MC now well over £50m ii will be lining up to buy in, those PIs that don’t like the word suspension that sold out will want back in with all those that have seen this land on their radars.

Increased bopd
Finance restructuring
High PE
Fast tracked drilling program (potentially)
All licences in place
HUGE resources
Potential that the reservoirs have multiple layers (like neighbours)
Low costs
Rising / recovering WTI price
Global demand set to increase as Covid restrictions are lifted.
Potential Nigerian license issued
Nigerian taxes reduced
Mozambique plays
(Did he also mention the DIVIDEND word ;) )

I’m sure I have missed a few but you get the point in making.

Will be very interesting if a high percentage of those currently holding are holding long. Where will the SP go. Great prospects for 2021,22, 23 and beyond, could well be a Tier 1 playing alongside the bog boys that’s for sure, the wait will be worth it - GLA

Oil continues to build on its 6% recovery/gain from end of last week as it again sets up nicely to test $68 with price currently sat at $67.70

The good thing with these guys is they sell in a range it’s better for the SP it’s better for them.
AIM has been know for dealt spiral finance where they flood the market. These guys play the game lucky for us there selling will be based on daily volumes, however there shouldn’t be much left.

The other option these guys have is to sell down at a in order to have a free carry or cash profits.

Allowing me to load up so I’m happy

My take on this is guys like the investor now turned seller was rules.

They make on taking the shares as they are always below market price. They have ranges in which they sell and returned they want to make on the original investment.
For them it’s not trading or investing m it’s a business model that they make money on.
If you look at the 4.5m sell the other day 3.24p those share purchased for 2p say have mate 1.24p or 60.8% not a bad profit of you have a hundred million for argument sakes.
The rate of sell down would suggest to me that they will be out before accounts issued

Is all gas production is tied into the net work so they feed a supply which means everything that is produced is sold.

They are sat on massive oil reserves, they are increasing production by drilling wells and adding pumps.
In addition to this the company has no pressure issues in any of its reservoirs so it’s simply a case of tapping into those reserves.
IMPO I can see this become a takeover target.

Jeffrey has transformed the company since his interception.
The company has cleared all debt
It has a positive cash balance of $6m
It’s dramatically reduced costs/overheads
The reserves will make this extremely attractive to a major player, especially with the gas connected straight to the network. This kind of infrastructure is a massive positive.

They have no debt
They have $6m in the bank
They have a revenue income from both Gas and Oil sales
They are looking at increasing production
They installing pumps to increase recovery

Even after Saudi v Russia price wars straight into Covid due to our low cost are sat in the green.

Given last year was supposed to be a bumper year until the above happened expecting them to make ground this year.

Even after last years price wars and global pandemic the SP should be 5 pps their words not mine they cannt understand why it’s sat down here. My opinion is PIs want to see the accounts or this just isn’t on radars yet.

Director talk interview

For those interviews google Serinus Energy *************interviews

https://www.***************************/serinus-energy-qa-cashflow-strength,-low-cost-ability-to-produce-and-financial-flexibility-lonsenx/412972937

As for depreciation I did not calculate gas reserves only oil.
The oil reserves I used a recoverable factor of 25-35% of actual know resource known as per the presentation.
As we have already extracted 1.2% I also deducted this off the 25 and 35% thus using 23.5 and 33.5% respectively of the reserve figures.

Hope this make my calculation more clear

Apologies recoverable I should have used 58% as 42% is what it costs as per presentation.

£5.28billion x 0.58 = £3.06 billion so what is that x85 the value of the current MC without adding gas in ?

So for argument sake as you are yet to provide me or this board with figure or workings to demonstrate your post we take my figures based on Oil only.

£4.6- 5.96 billion add them together = £10.56 divide by to equals an average of £5.28billion x 0.42%= £2.2176 billion.

So taking my figures which used $40 minus cost and a figure of 42% you believe should be used in ground value is still £2.2176 billion but true value would be a lot higher I used much lower figures for recovery and haven’t included gas recovery.

I’m looking forward to reviewing you oil in ground price and gas in ground price figures, I’m guessing I’m not alone.

Still a lot for a £36m company

Also forgot to add gas & oil prices year to date
Gas + 55%
Crude + 30%
SENX - 7%
(Not my words taken from the presentation)

Looking forward to accounts and markets reaction

Think we posted at the same time there.

What I ground value have you arrived at please ?

Older and wiser can you expand please, your post is confusing. You have told me my calculations are wrong.

Please in your words explain why they are wrong and provide workings to support your findings.

What I’m finding confusing is that you say oil is valued at $10/Bl for oil and much lower for gas.

I reached a figure of $6.4 to $ 8.28billion in the below calculation pointing out that I used $40 per barrel profits for both Tunisia and Romania. These are low given current crude price allows for negative fluctuation.
(See below calculation previously posted)

A slight increase in those recovery rates by say $5-10 would no doubt arrive at $10 billion.

In relation to Gas I offered no calculations for the Gas we produce however from the latest slide I have extracted this:

Moftinu - 1008 Well cost $3m
At current output returns 4.0 MMscf/d @ $6
$24,000 per day
$1m every 40 days
$3m every 120 days
$9m over the 360 days (minus any drop off)

This was a calculation to show the recoverable, I used 25-35% of sabria and only 75MMBoe of Satu Mare not the full asset reserves

This in relation to the asset in Tunisia
Sabria
Asset is said to have 358 MMBoe (independently verified)
The resource has had extremely low development with only “1.2% produced”
The reason for this low rates was a variety of reasons - simple reasons - Pumps to increase revenue had not been installed.

Any way the interesting part out of that 358 MMBoe they believe 25-35% recovery factor of which only 1.2% has been recovered.

So ladies and gentlemen I get to the interesting part.

Satu Mare - we use the 75MMBoe mean risked (not the 358MMboe - don’t want to get to greedy)

Sabria - we use A) 25-1.2% of 358 MMBoe = 85.2MMboe + Satu Mare 75MMBoe = 160.2 MMBoe

Sabria - We use B) 35-1.2% of 358 MMBoe = 122 MMBoe + Satu Mare 75MMBoe = 196MMBoe

Recoverable average totalling

160.2MMboe and 196MMboe

Satu mare 75MMboe at say $40 profit (currently $55) =$3billion

Sabria @ 25% - 1.2% = 85.2MMBoe at say $40 (currently $45) = $3.4billion.

Sabria @ 35% - 1.2% = 122MMBoe at say $40 (currently $45) = $4.88 billion

$the

X0.72 USD / GBP

£4.6 billion to £5.96 billion

As previously pointed out costs In ROMANIA it’s $9. Tunisia is $19

Will put a couple of extra lines on the lottery I think I might have a better chance there!
Absolute shambles what these crooks are getting away with!