Member Info for Charlie1984

Are you saying the calculation you have is $10 Billion for oil ????

I am interested to see your calculations can you please post and supply link to presentation you have extracted your figures from please.

I have just asked about flaring and if they are, at what the rate is?

If they are can they look at gas capture and re injection rather than burning off?

My other question was on the gas extraction as they are selling to a niche market would it be possible or my financially viable to use the gas reserves for injection to increased oil recovery now that oil is rising.

However, In the majority if not all cases gas injection would be standalone from use with the pumps due to the issues the gas can have on the mechanics of the pumps.

I believe the squeaky wheel gets the oil so pinged a few questions / suggestions to the company, just asking if they have considered a few things, if I get a reply will update you guys

Sorry if my post come across ar5y the other day that wasn’t the intention, you actually done me a favour revisiting that interview and why I added substantially more Friday.
My Dad is also an ex Project Manager for ConocoPhillips (retired now) just send him everything to have a look at as he is really, really clued up having worked in O&G all over the world.
Seems interested after our phone call but will ultimately run through everything and feed back to me.
Will update when he does but I cannt see any fault in my figures or the presentation, the fact there is no debt I’m expecting this to really go places. Especially given 44.61% are held by major shareholders. Any volume is going to really drive this up.

Spudton

Reference to % can be found in this presentation:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VA3M8ijRGCg

From approx 5mins in but if you have t watched it all well worth a watch in full and very interesting

GG12 Touched on the topic of your question last week.

Taken from that post

Should see a flip on PE ratio to reflect positive cash flow on accounts due end of this month into next.

Minimum without PE of 4.5 I would expect this to be at least 5-6p now.

Problem I see is no one knows about this share, look at volume and look at share chat on this BB

Once accounts issued showing no debt and revenues expect this to fly.

I am also expecting RNS confirming pumps installed and operational

In relation to COPL
This is from the latest RNS in relation to cancellation / relisting
Subject to regulatory approval, the Company now expects the re-admission of its common shares to occur towards the end of May or in June 2021. It is now intended that the cancellation and re-admission will occur simultaneously at such time.

Giving a number of PIs a window of opportunity at these levels

Would explain why I’d didn’t move out of the range, what is exciting is it is slowly moving up even with those sells without the selling last few days we could have been in that 4-5p range

Asked Zak to cover SENX in my recent Twitter post. Hopefully he will be doing a more in-depth post once accounts RNS is issued.

Just trying to get the profile up and on radars -

To quote:

Finally, there appeared to be something of a buzz surrounding Serinus Energy (SENX) with some traders citing the recent placing churn as being over, strong production figures versus market cap and a former Goldman Sachs investment banker as CEO. This may at least have been part of the explanation for the 3% share price rise for the international oil company with operations in Romania and Tunisia.

https://twitter.com/zakstraderscafe/status/1382884077477494788?s=21

I would have expect volume to stat picking up as accounts should be ready for 30 April which is 2 weeks today.

Given we know by the company’s website that 44.61% are held by sticky hands. That leaves 55.39% on the market or approx 632m shares.

If we said 10-20% of that are currently held by PIs (don’t think that’s unreasonable) which is 63.2-126.4m leaving approx 505.5m shares, once daily volume picks up the SP should motor quickly imo

For volume the company’s profile needs to pick up.

I mentioned earlier: volume, chat and social media suggest this isn’t on a great deal of radars. (YET)

At £50mMC it will become a target for ii, once accounts show profits, monthly revenue and debt free this will be very attractive to ii with SENX reserves of both Oil & Gas.

Predicting a rally in SP is difficult to predict prior to news due to above points. However, once the market sees the RNS and the herd start taking positions the problem will be getting in at the current prices and will see a lot of NT to buy and why I’m loading up now.

Certainly over the next few trading days as there is only potentially 10 left till news drops more sat on the side lines should be making a move and SP should climb.

According to LSE volume is 6m shares this is only 1.2% of 505.5m available volumes if at the 20% of above figures if 10% - 0.6% .

GG171

Standing by my calculations just pumping this post

Revenue $53m
Work this backward

$53,000,000 divided $64 (oil price) =828,125 barrels per year
828,125 / 360 = 2,300 bopd

2,300 x ($64-9 = $55) x 360 = $45,540,000

45,540,00 x PE 4.5 =$209,960,938

$209,960,938 / (USD to GBP = 0.72) = £147,571,875

£147,571,875 / 1.141 billion shares in issue

= 12.9p
However, i have worked back using that figure as net and taken away the $9 costs

If I use the figures we know or expected bopd to be:

3000 bopd x 360 x $55 x P.E 4.5 = $267,300,000

$267,300,000 x 0.72 (exchange) = £192,456,000

£192,456,000 / 1,141,000,000

= 16.8p

Should see a flip on PE ratio to reflect positive cash flow on accounts due end of this month into next.

Minimum without PE of 4.5 I would expect this to be at least 5-6p now.

Problem I see is no one knows about this share, look at volume and look at share chat on this BB

Once accounts issued showing no debt and revenues expect this to fly.

I am also expecting RNS confirming pumps installed and operational

3.2p to buy so that figure and over is a buy folks

Taken more this is to cheap imo

Spudton:

This was a calculation to show the recoverable, I used 25-35% of sabria and only 75MMBoe of Satu Mare not the full asset reserves

This in relation to the asset in Tunisia
Sabria
Asset is said to have 358 MMBoe (independently verified)
The resource has had extremely low development with only “1.2% produced”
The reason for this low rates was a variety of reasons - simple reasons - Pumps to increase revenue had not been installed.

Any way the interesting part out of that 358 MMBoe they believe 25-35% recovery factor of which only 1.2% has been recovered.

So ladies and gentlemen I get to the interesting part.

Satu Mare - we use the 75MMBoe mean risked (not the 358MMboe - don’t want to get to greedy)

Sabria - we use A) 25-1.2% of 358 MMBoe = 85.2MMboe + Satu Mare 75MMBoe = 160.2 MMBoe

Sabria - We use B) 35-1.2% of 358 MMBoe = 122 MMBoe + Satu Mare 75MMBoe = 196MMBoe

Recoverable average totalling

160.2MMboe and 196MMboe

Satu mare 75MMboe at say $40 profit (currently $55) =$3billion

Sabria @ 25% - 1.2% = 85.2MMBoe at say $40 (currently $45) = $3.4billion.

Sabria @ 35% - 1.2% = 122MMBoe at say $40 (currently $45) = $4.88 billion

$6.4 to $ 8.28billion

X0.72 USD / GBP

£4.6 billion to £5.96 billion

Not on advfnn will look at getting on over the weekend. Will collect all my info I have posted into one word doc then copy and paste.

Like wise if you want to click on my name you can copy and share it’s up to you

Gazza imho I’m expecting a buy out or take over.

CEO was part of Kazakhstan Oil & Gas when they sold out to the Chinese for $4 billion.

The company since his interception has been transformed.
No dept, low cost, oil & gas producer with cash in the bank.
Drilling should be completed and pumps installed shortly.
Expecting a dramatic SP shift on accounts due early next month

SENX figures are absolutely mental - this MC is crazy low, this should be £600-700m company easy surely on those figures ???

Satu mare 75MMboe at say $40 profit (currently $55) =$3billion

Sabria @ 25% - 1.2% = 85.2MMBoe at say $40 (currently $45) = $3.4billion.

Sabria @ 35% - 1.2% = 122MMBoe at say $40 (currently $45) = $4.88 billion

$6.4 to $ 8.28billion

X0.72 USD / GBP

£4.6 billion to £5.96 billion

HOW IS THE MC ONLY £36m this doesn’t even include the GAS and SENX is predominantly gas. Am I missing something here ????

One correction to calculation folks

In ROMANIA it’s $9. Tunisia is $19 Costs believe I said $9 for all however still extremely cheap.

I am also contemplating emailing the CEO

My first question would be are we flaring off gas?
Is so at what rate?

If we are flaring could we look at gas a recovery system and injection to increase wells pressure?

Another option

If the we have massive amounts of gas reserves would it yield a bigger return using the gas extraction via injection to recover oil at a higher rate with prices climbing?

Thinking hypothetically if we have massive amounts gas what value is it to us per cubic meter? would it be more financially viable to extract and inject to recover our oil at a higher rate - if current target is 7,500-8,000 bopd with gas injection that could be increased x5 or x10 fold maybe for depending on rate and ultimately capacity.

I have worked for a company building these sort of gas recovery and injection plants, fast tracked EPC contacts.
Could give him details to a director for fixed priced contact.

To give an idea we installed 3 x Import, 3 x Export and 2 x HP compressors. Pipe racks x2 all the heat exchangers, water demineralisation, demin water tanks and systems. Water treatment, amine for source gas, pumps (all the bells and whistles) etc Civil groundwork through to commissioning, process then handover. (18 months delayed a few months due to Covid)

These things aren’t expensive on the grand scheme of things and can be done from start to finishes in 10-16months depending on scale.

What I am saying is with the numbers presented it could MASSIVE. Tier 1 Major.

COPL have confirmed 31.1MMboe to date this is expected to increase.

However, the figures I used in my previous posts are conservatively used by the company in their presentation.

160.2MMBoe to 196MMBoe some 5.16 - 6.3 times bigger.

Another interesting point is when this company was put on my radar I was told that this company is predominantly a gas producer.

I haven’t even got my head around the gas potential yet but the figures on the Oil are mind blowing.

For a producer of this size with this volume of resources at only 1.141 billion shares in issue, well i am waiting for someone to tell me I’m wrong, as quite frankly I am gob smacked at how cheap this share is.