Member Info for Charlie1984

https://twitter.com/mikec841/status/1428600728851976197?s=21

Over 35% of the company traded in 3 days. Hadron should be finished.
Who do we see the next TR-1 RNS from is my question.

Confidence from HSBC. Should steady the ship a lot of PIs with itchy feet chasing rainbows.

I said sit tight, news flow a d updates are close. A period of stabilisation and letting the sellers out.

Those that believe in Art and the company will be rewarded soon.

I didn’t expect the SP to be down here but I did expect a window before news landed to propel the SP North.

GLA

Increased their bonding - confidence !

Expecting more TR-1 because of the volume ans round buy trades gla

If you didn’t know.

If you want to check a posters history on LSE click on their name.

Wolf the SP was suppressed from open by a background seller Hadron (see TR-1 RNS).

The TR-1 showers the had just over 1% left so should be clear, why they are selling and SP is suppressed here most will take the old ty it’s to sell and chase rainbows else where.

Once the SP starts climbing on low buying volume this will indicated the seller has finished.
At this point PIs / traders will reposition them selves for the rise.
Some news early next week would be welcomed to get this moving.
Check my posting history I have done the calculations but didn’t expect this buying opportunity that’s for sure.
MC needs to correct that’s a given as it’s undervalued currently but seller pulling it back nothing rise imo

Seeing lots of square number 2,500,000 and 5,000,000 trades these aren’t PIs imo as they buy in monetary value not amounts of shares 95% of the time

I was asked a question via email if Tuesday and Wednesday was what I expected on re-list.

Having digested the situation I am still as confident and looking at the positives, some might not share the views but it’s all about offering balance snd honesty:

My reply:

Certainly not what I expected but might be a blessing.
Hadron would have sold regardless of price, if we opened at 1.5p + plus most PIs would have taken profit so we could have ended up back down here regardless.

Now if we clear Hadron down here we are taking more shares of the table.

£10k investments at 0.5p would have seen 2m. If it was was £10k investment at 1 or 2p we would have only been clearing 500k to 1m

So flipping quicker down here.

Given the large trades I expect other ii to be getting involved and with it we should see TR-1 hopefully by the the time Q2 accounts are out.

Once the SP starts ticking up more will be taking positions especially knowing the seller is finished.
This should also prevent a mass sell off as it will control PIs selling as they will do so at increasing SP levels along the way.

The interview. We know Q2 accounts are due within 9 days. Arts body language suggests more will drop as he looked excited and nearly let slip.

Cole Creek 2 out of 12 wells drilled and program ongoing.

Barron Flats miscible flooding bopd output has jumped up again. I believe these figures to be running slightly behind to allow for continuing updates (imo)

He mentioned the 50,000 acres which I think he is eying up drilling very soon to increase known reserves.

So yes disappointing but we didn’t expect true value for a number of months so given Q2 accounts could drop before month end we are only then 4 weeks away from end of Q3.

I’m expecting the SP to climb slowly each day, once the background seller is finished we will gather momentum and with positive updates correct to a true MC.

Still massively undervalued imo and market sentiment and volume will change quickly on positive news and knowing there is nothing holding the SP back and should fly.

Given a 0.38p close and current SP the NPV prices isn’t even reflected of Atomic let alone the bopd output.

Little frustrating short term but was a 6-12 months minimum hold for me to see true value.

Have been topping up as I couldn’t believe the SP and would have topped up under 2p had we opened up there.

Best regards

Given the PIs selling down to chase the next rainbow I think they need to look at the fundamentals, I point out above
You will never make money on a stock & shares jumping around chasing rainbows or following the herd
We have oil
We have monthly income
We have started miscible flooding
We have a gas contract secured for 5 years
We are seeing BOPD increase daily
We have 2/12 wells operational & producing Cole Creek
Possible increase of ownership/Cuda
Exploration of our +50,000 acres
Possible acquisition
Possible updates OPL226
U

Correct LB only need at TR-1 when passing 3% then every 1% up over.

Once a seller has sold down to under 3% they issue a TR-1 to tell the market that they have fallen under the threshold.
They then fall off the radar and become invisible in way of holding as no one can see what they retain or don’t.

The positive for us is that we know from the RNS that the had little over 1% left.
Given the volumes seen and the sizeable trades they should be close to if not already out today/tomorrow.

This is one of the 100m trades but “you cannt see any evidence of ii loading up” £534,100 trade - must just be your average PI

https://twitter.com/sean_1530/status/1427635931922714627?s=21

What about all the delayed out of hrs trades that where posted on this BB, did you over look them as well?

Blue yesterday, blue today.

We could control the volume of wells yesterday and the overall volume today is out of our control.

Everything will become clear and we should see TR-1 due to the volume yesterday.

Happy for blue days no matter how big or small until SP auto corrects.

Just happy I can continue to add, 2 weeks till payday and shifting more funds round as the current SP/MC doesn’t make any sense

Yes I have said for months I expected 1.2-1.6p based on NPV value alone and even calculations etc.

I think I even said be grateful of 0.8p and everything over a bonus.

So wrong on all fronts.

Strangely not the RTO opening price never mind the “like a IPO” platform we expected take of from either.

Hopefully the lower open has flushed the sellers out and made it more inviting for PIs after all if they had £10k to invest at 1p takes 1m off the table at 0.5p takes 2m so might flip these quicker but unreal to see 4-4.5 billion shares traded.

Still think we will see a market correction and still standing by calculations but now need to clear the seller which hopefully today done, once we gather momentum and start to reflect true value.

Apologies £1m a month was at 2,000 so at 2,200 will be closer to £1.1m a month profit

We raised £13m prior to suspension

Let’s use 1800 bopd ($68-28 costs=$40) x 90 days x 57.7%

1800bopd x $40 = $72,000 per day

72,000 x 90 (Q2) = $6,480,000

$6,480,000 x 57.7 = $3,738,960

$3,738,960 x 0.73 ( $/£) = £2,279,440

Or just Shy of £910,000 profit for each month of Q2

This should have increased by approx 10% so currently running at £12m profit a year at current output.

£1m a month

We have paid a lot of the costs upfront for miscible flooding so unsure how much we have spent but would say we should have at least £6.5m left (out of initial £13m) then add £2.7m on for Q2 and £1m for first month of Q3.
Could be up to £10.2m

Even if we safely say 50% of this has been invested into drilling wages etc I would assume £5m Cash in bank minimum.

Cuda owe us on loan account plus fees snd interest for their cost on top of this

Leathal1979

Nice if you to drop in.

Have posted several times throughout today so not hiding as you or others will make out.

Actually relishing in the opportunity and have been topping throughout the day.

I like many expected to be paying anywhere between 1.2-2p today so this really is a gift.

The calculations haven’t changed and with it neither have the SP of MC of true value.

What you point out i have also mentioned today in my previous posts.
The fact that volume today including out of hours delayed trades topped 4 billion or 25% ish of all shares in issue.

PIs locked in for 6 months needing funds.
Those that sold on open and where happy with up to 50% profit.
Or Hadron selling down (as they did before suspension)

I’m not into explaining myself again so please reference my posting history from today.

Yes there are eventualities that we cannt calculate into the SP predictions, such as those out with our control but these are temporary why shares flip and find new homes doesn’t mean calculations are incorrect as you suggest. Just means we didn’t see it today.

Prospectus wasnt issued so RTO wasn’t confirmed so this is why Canada didn’t rise while still trading.

MC = 15,624,453,124 x 0.405 (SP)

Annual revenue

WTI ($70-$28 cost) x BOPD x 360 days x PE ratio x 57.7 (% ownership)

SUM x 0.73 ( USD to £)

SUM = MC

Take the above MC and divide it by shares in issue.

Now when you have calculated this you can apologies to the board for spouting absolute rubbish.

The suppression of SP today was down to sellers.

Given that 3.8 billion shares where traded or £18m in value hopefully those that wanted out are out and the buying volume continuing will cause upward momentum and true reflection of value.

The above calculation by the way doesn’t include cash in the bank or OPL226 value.

I asked for a calculation please show the board you calculation for annual profit.

Further to this MC is calculated by shares in issue x SP.

Not Stockopedia or what ever you used.

I take it your short given your serial negative posts and want to tell the world how overvalued this stock is or is it a cheaper entry point your looking for?

Overvalued what planet are you on?

What was the MC at close ?
What was the capital raised £13m
What is the value of Atomic

COPL is undervalued at £64m

The opening MC of £100m ish was undervalued, what can't be accounted for is sellers or Hadron. Who where selling down before suspension.

There is a clear market and want for shares which counterbalanced by this sell off (as the sellers take a profit)

This doesn’t reflect a shares true value.

What we will see is the sells dry up and PIs and ii continuing to loading up, as long as the buys continue to outweigh sells as today shows the SP goes up.

So because 100s x millions of shares are off loaded and the SP doesn’t jump up 200-300% it doesn’t mean it’s overvalued.

There just needs to be a correction why share flip hands.

Simple maths calculation on income shows this share is undervalued where you get overvalued from is beyond me.

If your not just de-ramping please explain this to the board with calculations as to how you arrive at your conclusion please?

You tried calling them to trade?

No one is ramping anything up- it clearly states in the RNS production figures of 2,200 not the 2,000 you quote.
Most here have also done calculations based on the 57.7% ownership.
I think your splitting hairs if you think that production figures at an asset are broken down as you imply they are given as an overall output.

Copl - 57.7% = 1269.4bopd
Cuda - 27.3% = 600.6bopd
CNOOC - 15 % = 330bopd

What you also fail to point out is that Cuda are defaulting on debt repayment and costs associated to production so might not be receiving anything as default (this wasn’t mentioned as it isn’t confirmed)

Funny how the teams of traders reply to each other with a clear agenda.

Given in your figures you state (2,000) are out by 10% does this mean you cannt read an RNS or are you both clear de-ramping?

Very much the conclusion I reached by tracking the output Tailburn.
Again another excellent post, very informative, well explained and broken down.
As you point out the latest gain 1,800 to 2,200 has been achieved in 3 weeks.
As per simulator that was expected to take 6 weeks.

Things are looking very positive.

Very excited and happy I got my top ups this morning as I keep saying really value will be seen by holding.

In a profit already on my top ups today.

Excellent volumes and going to be sellers at every level.

What will be interesting is the buying pressure of this nature once the seller (possibly Hardon) has finished.

If HSBC add further and drop an TR-1 RNS this will get really interesting.