Member Info for Charlie156

Helluva risk? We're not exactly talking THG or UKOG are we. There is serious money to be made trading BP.

Tittle-tattle. Your an idiot.

There is definitely a sentiment change in the city towards BP and Shell. The heavy selling and pariah status of the last 2 years is giving way to a grudging realisation that they are highly profitable beasts and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. They have also addressed their ESG credentials and commitment to renewables, gaining new support from an admittedly low base.

No share buybacks this week and the shares are up over 6%. Of course with the majors reporting robust numbers, that has supported the share price. With debt maturities making further large scale debt repayments questionable, the road is clear for even bigger buybacks. BP bought 2.5% of its share capital in the last 3 months, the signs are on Tuesday that will be increased. I know it doesn't feel like it and it depends on how long your investing, but this wall of money will slowly and torturously eventually provide significant shareholder returns, if you believe, as I do, that high oil prices are with us for the short/medium term.

My sympathies to Phil Corbett, having to deal with this petty vendetta, carried out by a few small minded bozos. I lost money in Hur, tried to learn from it and moved on.

I just don't think SS has had the breaks here. What he needs is a good holiday, then he can come back refreshed and look for a new AIM project.

On debt repayment. If that debt has a low interest rate over the medium/long term, then repaying it now, when you may have to raise funds again in a higher interest rate environment when the oil price drops, seems pointless. It makes a larger dividend than planned increase more logical and shareholder enhancing.

SKG results well received. Sentiment will change, sector rerate due.

Some back of the envelope numbers. BP has repurchased 1.47 billion of its shares in the last 12 months, 7.25% of the share capital, costing $7.15bn. They have issued circa 1% of new shares, which points to a 6% dividend hike. This will reduce future annual dividend payments by $330+ million. If BP repays $3bn of debt in Q2, as it did in the less profitable Q1, BP's debt will have been reduced by over $8bn in the last year. These numbers show BP is far ahead of where it expected to be when it unveiled its new strategy in Aug 20, giving the company leeway to considerably increase the dividend. A 7 cent a quarter plus 1 billion share buyback program over the next 12 months costs BP $5.2bn instead of its factored in $4.4bn, more than affordable due to the strength of its balance sheet. Shell's last update said the Q2 performance of its trading division was softer than Q1, which I've moved over to BP. For BP's Q2 results I've pencilled in a conservative $8-9bn profit, from which the annual GOM payment, circa $1.2bn is made.

I have a feeling this buyback has finished. BP's share price looking a bit rudderless, without its support, even with Brent at $102 and BP having had quite possibly the most profitable quarter in its history. Step forward one Bernard Looney to save the day. On second thoughts, abandon ship. I hope you can swim .

CAML will produce a stonking set of results for H1 in Sept, and with the main debt repaid in August and the dollar/tenge-denar rate in their favour, the company is well placed. Prices peaked on April 5 with copper at $10,690, zinc $4470 and lead $2435. Today those prices are $6917, $2971 and $1976, so the fall has been precipitous, but other companies will be feeling the pain far more. The Kazak govt seem to be annoying Putin, which makes CAML an even more complicated investment.

The much missed Brian Gilvary was on the Ian King show this morning saying oil stocks are well below the 5 year average, particularly in the US. He also said there is very little spare capacity in OPEC, mainly with the UAE, and it is heavy sour crude. His view that balancing that with economic recession, China's covid policy and a deal with Iran being less likely now, points to upside potential in the oil price.

Grandatom's posts over the past year have shown an understanding of the oil markets, its pricing and machinations. In comparison Gary59's posts show he knows SFA.

Maybe the share sales were to pay for Looney's divorce. His ex-wife, the author Jacqueline Hurst, said of their marriage in 2017, separation in 2018 and divorce in 2019, that he only married her to advance his career. I think all of BP's shareholders are paying the price for that career advancement.

Why have Looney or the CFO never made a significant share purchase since taking their roles and implementing their new strategy. If you are cutting the dividend by 50% and evangelise about BP's future, surely there is a moral imperative on you to show your fellow shareholders that, by putting your hand in your pocket and showing shareholders you are in this journey together.

Looney struggles to defend BP's dividend policy, now we have the prospect of Bernie tying himself up in knots explaining and defending BP's decision to pay travel expenses for BP staff seeking an abortion. I predict now it will be a car crash.

While today's buybacks feel like good value, it is understandable why the subject causes such angst . Since the turn of the century to 24.06.22, BP has repurchased 8,182bn shares and spent $71.286bn. Today BP has 19.2bn shares in circulation valuing the company at $92.3bn. Add in the $70+BN that has been paid out for the Macondo oil spill, history will show that for the last 22 years BP made an awful lot of money and for the most part that capital had not been used efficiently.

There are no reasons to anticipate further corrosion holes, but every reason to anticipate your an eejit.

Have you got anything stimulating to say on BP? The floor is all yours.

Surprised at the market indifference to these results. There has been some softening in the industrial sectors, but debt has dropped sharply, Southern Europe and North America are growing strongly on the back of acquisitions. The new year has started well and the dividend has had a hefty hike. At this level the shares are a real takeover target.