Member Info for Chandley-1976

Clearly weighing on us. Shell are in the green!

Clearly not how we wanted to see crude pass $100. And let’s see how long the below applies. It’s just a sad fact that the world needs Russian energy though.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Sanctions-Will-Not-Target-Russias-Oil-And-Gas-Exports.html

That's it mate. Sit back and enjoy those divis. Ill be reinvesting them if the SP is anywhere under 400p come March.

I suspect that in 7 months, the Ukraine stuff will have gone away, we'll have had 3 quarters of 90-100 dollar oil, the world will be broadly back to normal in terms of consumption, and profits will be $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.

400p will be history.

100%. The markets work more on anticipation than facts.

We saw a massive run from 320 to 400p leading up to last Q's amazing results (which will be dwarfed in the next ones!), and then when the results landed things stayed pretty flat. The results were priced in early. We've already seen that with Ukraine, largely, IMO.

It’s fairly hard to be happy about the rise eh guys?

This will all pan out, and hopefully Putin will realise that he simply can’t win.

Almost $96.

Those Q1 results will be monstrous.

A little chunk of BPs value. Meanwhile;

WTI CRUDE • 92.24 +1.17 +1.28%
BRENT CRUDE • 95.02 +1.48 +1.58%
NATURAL GAS • 4.779 +0.348 +7.85%

A cool £4m earnings package this year.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bp-boss-bernard-looney-awarded-2-4m-annual-bonus-as-oil-prices-surge-33b37hg08

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

404

But Putin isn't trying to take over the world, kill an entire race, nor is he really a psychopath or war criminal as Hitler and his crew very clearly were. Comparing people to Nazis is part of the problem really,; pure polarisation. The difference is astronomical. The plain and simple fact is that the USA is the biggest bully on the planet, and routinely invades other countries for personal gain and little else, with no consequence as they run the world. Their military is far more powerful than Russia's.

It's like those same people who think that Joe Biden is a saint even though since he got in power the world is the same and all the people who the left represent are still no better off. Yet the press still go on about Donald Trump being an idiot, when Biden's made as many gaffes and has directly insulted and been nasty towards as many journalists as Trump did, only the MSM don't report on it because it doesn't fit the far left narrative which we live with at the moment. Since it supposedly make you a good person to do so, even when you're likely as much of a clown as those who you oppose. Again, is all about personal gain.

My point being, the Russians are no more evil than we are. There is absolutely no way that they will invade Ukraine. Its all just muscle flexing and bargaining.

Everybody acts as if they are evil dictators, but let's be honest, are they really any worse, or even as bad as the USA, with us teaming up with everything they do? I honestly don't think so if you look at the facts.

- We invaded Iraq for oil. But that was OK. Nobody was found guilty of war crimes etc.
- We invaded Afghanistan to kill terrorists, and in doing so just created more as those terrorists all had innocent brothers and sons etc.
- The list for such 'wars' goes on since the dawn of time

I'm not saying that they are angels, far from it. My only point is that in the west, we've been conditioned to thinking that Russia is bad, and we are good. The same as if vice versa on that side of the world no doubt. I blame Rocky 4, even if they all get on in the end in the film.

Watch BBC for an hour, and then watch RT for an hour. The polarisation is clear, along with the fact that they both lie and see things from their own vantage points.

As with anything political, the truth always lies in the middle.

$95……

Back down to 400 over the pond. Seems to be the level which markets want at the moment. A nice solid base. Suits me fine.

And I’m adamant that the divi was maintained via PR reasons. We got enough flak over making big profits during domestic energy hikes.

Champagne socialist Richard Burgon MP Tweeted ‘BP and Shell make £80m a day. That’s why your bills are so high. That’s why we need a windfall tax, to pay peoples bills’

Since Richard is Oxbridge educated and is a Partner at a law firm so earns a comfy £150k at least from his day jobs alone, you’d assume that he understands that oil companies don’t set oil prices. So either he’s stupid or a liar. I’d suggest the latter based on all the above points.

When profits are even bigger after a quarter of $90+ oil, and domestic energy price bumps are no longer easy lefty copy, let’s see how things look then in terms of dividend rises. IMO the dividend needs to be 5% or over. Inflation only enforces that.

Happy with it not being raised personally. Buybacks have a better political spin than 'BP makes records profits, and hands an extra $???m to shareholders'.

The MSM rags, BBC included these days, would love that, and it would stoke hate and bad PR with the masses who envisage 'shareholders' as living in 12 room mansions in Sandbanks with a gold plated Bentley or 3 on the drive, and who are the reason behind people not being able to feed their kids or heat their houses. Funny how those same considerate socialists didn't care at all when we were making record losses, oil was $0 a barrel and our share price started with a 1, not a 4, a little over a year ago.

People's views change with the wind, when it suits.

My target sell price of 4.40 may be readjusted/waited to take for another 6 months......

$100 by month end.
BP 450p by month end once YE results confirm that the green shift isn't overly adversely affecting profits, and that we are still a cash machine, and that oil isn't going anywhere for decades.

Should offset those rising domestic energy prices just about.

Somebody tell him that at $92 a barrel, we don't want his £200 in energy bill loans....... we own the energy company.

Big UK boys........ wheres my coffee.

Why invest in both? Seems a bit pointless as they both follow the same path in terms of movements and dividends.

IMO, both the UK supermajors are still about 10%-15% undervalued. All the big UK boys have fully recovered to the pre pandemic woes, whereas BP is still about 30% off. Even with risk from Russia/Ukraine, and uncertainty over the long term profitability of the new green direction away from oil, we are still priced cheaply here.

Next week I'm looking for more buybacks to be announced, the dividend to be hiked by 5%, which is still low in truth, and a strong return to profit. Looking at oil prices, Q1 2022 wont be much different. Should be a strong year for all the oilers.

8 Feb - Results and divi announcement
17 Feb - Ex Divi
18 Feb - Divi Record
25 Mar - Divi payment

For me it simply has to rise by 10%+. At current SPs, the yield is 3.9% which for a company which is a self declared cash machine, is unacceptably low, buy backs or not.