Member Info for Chandley-1976

FTSE futures up
Oil down

Which will our unpredictable and volatile SP follow…

2.5% drop in a single trading day, due to nothing, amidst rising oil prices and a steady FTSE....

Joke.

I'm just venting, but still. Really poor SP performance. It's good job we had that silly run from 320p to 400p in Dec.......

Once again, lagging well behind oil price and oil peers. The fact is that we are way more exposed to Russia then other companies, hence our poor performance since the invasion.

Lets just get that Rosneft write off done, and then crack on reaping the rewards of $120 oil for a few months and probably beyond.

Pointless

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60687203

Russia wont stop until Kyiv is submitted. They cant be seen to lose, whereas Kyiv for all their bravery and patriotism, cannot win the military war, as much as in the long term they will be heroes, and Russia will largely be the losers.

The point is that the divi is 4.4%, which is low in itself.
The divi is based on a % of the shareprice/market cap, which again is low.
Income is high.
Oil prices are higher than they've been for ages

Those two factors wont change now that the world is no longer sat in their houses doing nothing. Covid is broadly over and the world is again consuming oil in vast amounts.

The dividend needs to rise to 6.5c/5.5% per share IMO, which is still a huge 33% cut from pre Covid levels of 10.25c a quarter when the SP was 500p, so an 8% yield.

Get the div raised by 20% to a still conservative 5.5% Bernie.

I dont know a single person bar Looney who doesn't think that a BP divi at 4% isn't a joke. He needs to raise it to 5% at least, especially considering current income at $120 oil, which lets be honest, wont go away soon.

Yesterday's fall in oil is due to the Saudis asking OPEC to raise output, not because these pointless talks will yeild any agreement.

Our Moscow office just lost network and comms BTW...... one of the biggest western firms in their field in the world. Putin's apparently cutting internet connections all over Russia, but why? The plot thickens.

I have no issue with his policies in truth, just the uber long term focus affecting today too much. I think its great to be ahead of the curve and prep for the future. BP are well on top of that. We were also the first huge firm to pull out of Russia, something which has gone unnoticed by many. Bernie just needs to nurse the SP and shareholder interests a bit more in the now, since he will be retired himself when green energy is the norm.

Its a marathon not a race Bernie. We aint Tesla. We are an oil and gas company.

There is no question that the future is green, but the plain and simple fact is that oil and gas still rules the world, and will do for decades.

All those mugs going on about electricity being green, need to look into how most electricity is generated. 80% of it comes from fossil fuels and coal; global average. It's the same chumps who think that jackfruit curry is ethical because it's vegan. And how much jackfruit isn't flown in from Asia?

Crude up 5%, oilers down yet again.

Somebody's having a laugh here.

My point exactly yesterday. $115 and we sit at 370.

Let’s see if we get more wild swings today. 360 or 380….?

Maybe not….

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Prices-Crash-By-11-As-UAE-Calls-On-OPEC-To-Open-The-Taps.html

Let’s see. It’s worth noting that a lot of the western companies who’ve ‘pulled out’ of Russia have in fact just suspended Ops and are still paying staff.

But surely we need to move away from Russian energy dependence anyway, as much as it will take time. A long time.

If Russia pull back tomorrow, there still needs to be consequences.

And all the media spin about Ukraine being too strong and are holding Russia off; what if Russia deployed 20% of their forces not 10? It’s lovely sentiment and a testament to the brave people protecting their country. But ultimately Russia will easily win any military war. If they wanted to have flattened the nation it would have happened already.

Russia don’t want to flatten the country, just submit it.

He's 100% no fool. He's as clever as the west, only he's allowed to also be ruthless too as he bosses a dictatorship masked as being a democracy. People talk about Boris and Corbyn as if they are evil oppressors and that life is hard here etc etc. It just goes to show how entitled, soft minded and spoiled we are in the west.

The simple fact is that we need Russian energy, and they need us for a lot too. We need to get on with them, which is why we generally do despite knowing that he's possibly the most dangerous man on the planet. Kim Jung? Saddam? Gadaffi? All relative children compared to Putin and his squad of ultra rich mates who are essentially paid by the state to keep him in power. All those Mayfair houses, Bugattis, super-yachts and football clubs are dirty money, and everybody knows it. But it's glossed over as it makes money for shareholders and governments too.

I was in the camp of them not invading and it just being threats. But I now also don't see these talks ending in the war ending either. It will drag on until Russia have what they came for. Ukraine being neutralised. He cant be seen to lose to his people. It pains me to say that. I have a friend whos stuck there. It's a dreadful situation for everybody really, and is not even close to being over IMO.

For me, even if a deal is done, Russia still need sanctioning and their whole crooked empire needs shunning, until that sour faced clown Putin is either shot dead by somebody, or he keels over.

So if a deal is done, that makes it OK that half of Ukraine's cities are flattened? No way. There needs to be some long term payback even if they reach a deal for the bombs to be stopped. Russia need to pay for their bullying actions.

No doubt Putin would spin it as a win for Russia, when in fact, they need to be made to lose for a generation because of all this. And sadly, that will have a knock on effect for everybody. We, the civilised world, cant be funding such crooks with their dirty money. Unfortunately, a lot of the money that's spent in the world, is crooked.

Oil has fallen 5% today, sure. But its still $120+! So when oil rises by 25%, we gain 10%, but when it falls back 5%, we lose 5%? Stupid. 365p is ludicrous, even with the Rosneft news priced in.

Oil will rise again though and the wild swings will continue as they make people a lot of money. It's early days in Ukraine sadly so it's only a matter of time before that Russia shunning causes an uplift in global energy prices to $150+ IMO.

All eyes on those Q2 results for me now to be honest. Q1 will be a write off due to Rosneft, but we really need to turn a corner very soon. Woefully undervalued in terms of P/E ratio, dragging way behind majors in the US, and way too prone to wild swings for now real reason, whereas Shell are way more stable, whilst paying a pathetic % dividend for BP, who considering earnings should be returning way more to shareholders.

When we next hit 400, Ill probably sell up in all honesty. My average on my trading share is 320, with a 300p average overall.

Yep, standard.

2 to 3% up and down, round and round. Take it off the banks, add it to oil, then reverse.

Joke.

Somebody’s making a killing trading these wild SP swings based on oil price movements.

I’m with you Zak. The fact is that BP is criminally underpriced/underperforming in SP compared DOW peers.

We should be well into the 400s based on oil price and recent profits. Yet the markets don’t see it?

Those Q2 results will be eye watering come Aug after months of $150 oil and the Rosneft write off done.

She’s now turned to moaning that IWD isn’t about celebrating, but about protesting for the women who are oppressed based purely on their gender.

Anything to protest against eh?

And all from the wealthy, western, white girl who's never seen any real gender oppression in her life, and never will above and beyond WholeFoods not providing steps for people under 5’10 not being able to reach the quinoa on the top shelf.

Whilst we don’t yet know how the US markets will react, I’m a touch relieved at only losing 20p today in all honesty. I was mentally bracing for a fall back to 320 levels, which was my last big entry back in late Q4.

We’d already taken a bigger hit than the other oilers ahead of last weekend so the Rosneft risk had already been semi priced in. The weekend just confirmed it.

Let’s see exactly how we exit and what the balance will be, but you’d hope for a sale to the Chinese or Saudis. Russia won’t buy our stake, you can bet that much. Surely them essentially stealing it would end any kind of western investment in Russia for a generation.

The loss of earnings via Rosneft dividends in the meantime should be more than offset by the high oil price caused by the same drama.

I do feel terribly anxious about the whole fiasco though. Not BP stuff, just the entire Russian behaviour. It’s chilling and casts me back to memories of a film scene that I loved as a kid.

https://youtu.be/s93KC4AGKnY

There’s no winners……