Member Info for Chandley-1976

As expected, no dividend rise due to the political noise from the far left, which is already substantial. It will come, once things settle down a bit.

- Get those debts paid off
- Remove shares from circulation
- Anything that we now get from Rosneft is a bonus
- $100 oil the norm for months
- Reinvest in green solutions

Higher than expected SP lift, especially since we closed at 385 yesterday in truth/in America. Lets see if we can hold/gain on that. Q2 and beyond should be eyewatering.

And who says we cant 'donate' just 1 billion quid to all those low earning families in millions of houses in the UK who cant supposedly can't afford to pay the heating hills, and do it voluntarily too, not via taxes. Great PR.....

Agreed. The divi will increase, without question.

But now isn’t the right time, politically or practically.

The noise from the far left would be massive, and it makes sense to keep buying back at the currently deflated share prices whilst the ongoing recession worries pass, as they inevitably will, whether it be 6, 12 or more months, like anything else that’s also politically motivated.

Sek; the problem is that it hasn’t risen in direct relation to the buy backs, to date.

Eventually the market cap has to catch up with the facts, but it’s not as instant and tangible as dividends which is why most investors prefer dividends as much as buy backs are an investment in the company.

Dow having another shocker across the pond.

Currently 3.79 over in the US, following a rough day last Friday on the DJ.

My guess for close of play tomorrow will be 3.80.

We need closure/clarity over the Rosneft stake, and for those Chinese Covid policies to pass before pressing on.

YX, clearly the disgrunt is that buy backs should directly result in a 6% rise in share price per annum. The reality is that it hasn’t to date. The share price itself seems to be what markets look to move, not the market cap. All that’s happened to date is that the market cap has fallen. Same share price, less shares in issue.

Paying 4% in divis though, directly results in that cash being delivered, whether that’s reinvested in more shares or spent on a holiday. The returns feel more real as they are tangible.

The total return to shareholders should in reality be around 10% per annum.

The far left uproar would be massive if dividends rose, which lets be honest, they will.

‘Shareholders receive windfalls amidst fuel poverty’
‘Fat cats bask in payouts whilst normal people suffer’
‘Calls for energy company windfall taxes ignored by Tory billionaires, as record profits are recorded’

I should write for The Sun. But you can see it already. Totally glossing over the facts whilst preaching polarised nonsense;

Most shareholders are pretty normal people with mortgages and debts.

The oil companies have had a generally tough 2 years and their values are still depleted.

Dividend rates are still almost half from pre pandemic highs.

It’s the oil companies who will reinvest billions into geeen energy sources.

Without paying dividends, people will invest elsewhere/BP won’t have as much month for those investments.

Let’s see what Tuesday holds. I’m bracing for it being muted to and neutral to be honest.

I suspect that Rosneft may put the brakes on this to be honest, as much as $100 oil will be the norm for some time to come.

Strong results as expected, hence ours and Shells little bump since the big boys tend to mirror each other, so we can expect similarly rosy Q1 numbers.

More far left wing calls for a windfall tax, but Rishi has already said that it won’t happen unless we don’t plough a ton of investment into green energy; which we know is happening. Somebody has to spend money to replace Russian fossil fuel.

How this hasn’t already cracked 400p as a baseline is an absolute scandal.

Dulwich; its all well and good cutting off 2 countries which are minnows and don't really hand over much cash to Putin for gas.

Cutting off Germany though, would mean $$$$$$$$$. He wont do it, as much as it's coming eventially anyway. It's all just Putin flexing his muscles. A bit like this whole war, which ultimately, as much as he can and will win the battle on the ground in terms of numbers of people murdered, he cant win the war long term. This war will be the end of him, even if that takes years. Sanctions and cut offs need to apply until he and his regime is gone, even when the battle on the ground ends

For me, measures need to cut deeper. Software companies need to start ending support and licences. Their IT infrastructure needs to be crippled. Lets see how they function then.

Labour are not stupid, despite the rhetoric. They know fine well that 1, BP and Shell have on balance had a rough 2 years despite a great Q4/Q1 lately, due to rising oil prices, something which they have no control over. And 2, it will be those companies who invest heavily into green energy, not the Government, regardless of political allegiances.

They are just calling for a windfall tax to score political points, make the Tories look bad/as if they only look after companies and the rich (which we supposedly are a shareholders), and make themselves look like they care more than the people in #10, which of course they don't. And if they were in power, would not be calling for BP and Shell to give money to people who cant manage their own finances, just to buy votes.

They would instead be reminding people of point 2. Whos going to enable the world to create green energy and move away from Putin's oil and gas funded massacre machine, after all this time?

It's companies like BP and Shell.

Then Ill be selling up this year, if that happens, and slapping the money into a pathetic 1.5%/12 month bond.

Slater, I don't 'expect' 450 at all in the near future. 400 is the immediate hurdle, and I don't see us breach that with any reliability until we are clear on what's happening on Rosneft.

The Chinese lockdowns are just noise. They will pass. £20b in assets/20% of our profits, stranded in Russia with there being seemingly no buyer though, is another matter entirely. That essentially only makes us as profitable as $80 oil, albeit with lower global consumption due to economic slowdowns. We need to increase the dividend by 5-10% too, but I don't see it happening amidst the current wave of anti oil firm hate and blame from left wing politicians, whilst they forget which companies will be spending billions on green energy solutions to offset the reliance on Russian energy.

I'm still expecting big income numbers at results, but possibly big write offs in fundamentals, alongside that, so on balance my views on results is that they will be pretty flat for Q1.

My target is 450p by Q3 2023, and will stand by that as being perfectly reasonable to achieve.

Absolutely rigged, yes. The markets love big swings and volatility. That's how they make money. BP in the 360s with $100 oil being the norm for 12 months, is a joke. All eyes on those results in just over a week. Shell are also down today.

Ultimately, the profits are all that matters in the longer term, and that oil price will benefit us once the numbers are reported.

- China lockdowns weighing
- Rosneft weighing
- War escalations weighing

We are all fatigued here, as we all thought that this year, things would improve when Covid passed somewhat. Then that little muppet over in the Kremlin piped up......

You could see it coming over the weekend. Oil prices heavily down due to more lockdown fears in China, and fears over the effects on the global economy/oil demand.

It seems that China started Covid, and China are the ones dragging it out now too.

Come back in 6 months once incomes are still peachy, Rosneft is sold off, crude is still $100+, and the war has an end in sight/most of the world us using green energy a lot more, which BP are at the forefront of.

It's all just bumps in the road.

Covid and Putin; Two massive pains in the rear.

China's zero Covid policy cant continue as it's just not practical. They need to learn to live with it, like every other nation.

An overbaked fall here based on crude falling back to 'only' $100, with worries about demand for oil amidst struggling economies and those Chinese lockdowns.

Time to turn off the lights and come back for the Q2 results in Aug, when the Rosneft stuff will be concluded one way or another, we've had another 3+ months of $100 oil, and China has realised that they cant lock everyone up forever.

Very. It’s obscene how considering oil prices, and the fact that they will remain closed over 100 for some time yet, that we are not well beyond 400 already.

Ironically, markets are going to fall due to global recession/inflation fears, which are largely caused by rising energy prices due to the war. Plus Labour have started going on about the windfall tax again, whilst totally forgetting who’s going to pay for that green energy transition.

Sit tight and results will be massive, Rosneft aside.

Down almost 2%, so we may see the 370s tomorrow if that equates to 4% off for us.

More minor blips in the road.

Could we see Sinopec take over our Rosneft assets, as Shell also look to offload to China. The Chinese seem like the sensible people to sell so. They have the willingness to work with Russia, to buy Russian oil, and have made that clear. Plus, they can afford it.

Lets see.

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