Member Info for cbaron

Part 2.

Moving on to a deal what might it look like? Expect PANR to end up with a small minority stake. Expect that there would be little upfront, given all of the risk and timing factors. Expect a payment profile to be protracted.

The best we could hope for is a bidding war but is that likely given that the market has known about this find since 2022.

Expect that the potential bidders know the gist of pretty much all of the information in the Data Room.

If you were sitting opposite PANR in negotiation you’d play hardball. Time and cash or not on PANR’s side, why would a major race to do a deal? Large oil companies did not become just that because they play soft ball in negotiation. Much is made of Spencer’s credentials but rest assured that there will be equally gifted negotiators representing the oil companies.

Where might the SP go in the short to medium term? There may be an emotional spike but sustainable value will only be realised once the negotiation and assimilation by the partner are completed.

Notwithstanding his fiduciary obligations as a Director, hope that Spencer's target is not his own share purchase average.

As to the SP?

I haven’t a clue!

You’ll probably now wish that you’d never asked!!! 😜

cb

11.03

I haven't a clue.

There are so many factors and variables in play, in terms of timing and content of news and news flow and not least the human factors of sentiment, desire, greed, FOMO, etc, it is just about impossible to predict - any prediction, howsoever based, published on this forum will be wrong and subject to abuse and criticism if it not seen to be shooting for the moon and stars. Tony's exercise this morning is a perfect case in point. He made an effort, on a structured and fully explained basis and gets shot down. The guy made a fist of it, explained his source and the inputs thereto, which is a bloody sight more that his detractors have done, and published the outcome. No thanks, just a kiss my.............. The publication of a wild guess by known rampers is hailed as if passed down from the heavens.

The starting point for me would be to consider a realistic timescale for news. Timings have been debated long and hard. My own view is that we shouldn't expect anything until the summer at least - we've had a debate about what that means. My view? late May earliest and possibly not until the Autumn. My reasoning? This is a very complex deal, much information for interested parties to assimilate, potentially massive values, but the underlying risk that it hasn't yet been established that these resources (not yet reserves, and therefore unable to be included on balance sheets) are commercially extractable.

Derivation of net asset value is potentially going to be heavily impacted by macro factors affecting headline sustainable oil prices and all of that has been widely discussed here ad nauseum. Most however may be short lived (The Straits of Hormuz, the Middle East in general and the Trump factor - lame duck hopefully by November) - but who knows. On the cost side, the whole Kodiak and Aphun fields must be considered. Anything next to TAPS and the Dalton benefits from what we hope to be low costs of delivery to market but let us not forget that the furthest extents, across to our new Repsol boundary are 10's of miles away and do not similarly benefit. New pipelines will need to be constructed along with all of the other connecting infrastructure. The environmental factors of being away from current infrastructure then come into play. I think many will remember the early debates when the earlier wells were drilled.

We then move on to the interesting deal and negotiation dynamics with any interested parties. PANR have, arguably, backed themselves into a corner. They are now a one-trick pony having placed all of their eggs in a sale/JV/farm-out (let's not go there again) basket. Put up the 'for sale' sign and you leave yourself open, especially when it can be seen that you've (at least for now) shown that you can't be a producer under your own steam. Add to that that you've very little money left in the bank. People take store by having enough to see the company until the end of the year - we're already one third into it.

see p.2

09.51

Frame the question properly and you might get a serious answer

You want and argument Fatso?????

i look nothing like Waldorf!!!

😜

19.14

Nothing wrong with pleading the 5th amendment. 😜

"arguing about who is write"

Enough said.

Dickie,

So how would you characterise the differences?

15.42

This can best be described as utterly confused nonsense.

Oily,

We went through that nonsense last Friday, as you know. No evidence!

PANR's ownership is in the centre of the map. It is shaded in light green and denoted as "Issued State Lease". It is the area in which 'Alkaid' and 'Talitha' are annotated

You can correlate PANR's location by looking at p.2 of the Pantheon website which shows the Lease ownership outline. The 'chimney shape on the left of the outline correlates with the eastern edge of the new southernmost Repsol acquisition area (shaded orange). It means PANR now has a contiguous boundary with Repsol.

Brombarb,

Many thanks.

cb

16.07

Brombarb,

Are you aware of a map showing the 2026 Lease sales? I've searched this evening and can't locate one.

AI maybe not wholly accurate and Sailplane perhaps right to qualify the AI content after all?

Many thanks Brombarb.

13.33

Sailplane,

Thanks for the post - very interesting.

To finish the day on a positive note and, subject to the last line caveat you're right to include, it all makes strategic and commercial sense.

It would also get over the potential issue we discussed here some years ago (as between (PANR & 88E) about who has the right to extract from shared, cross-boundary, contiguous reserves. We characterised it in terms of two blokes in a pub, two straws, one pint (paid for equally). What regulates the possibility that one might suck out more than his fair share?

As I recall, the answer was that it would be formally regulated by the Alaskan authorities.

13.12

Howarda,

"Why do you think anyone should value your opinion?"

Not sure who this was addressed to, but if it is me then, I don't, I wouldn't be so arrogant..

Though I have every right to express it, and will.

Siggins,

As I said when you raised it on Monday, I completely agree that greater exposure and promotion across the media can only help.

It may be covered off by a prohibition in any NDA the Data Room participants may have signed, but that would appear overly Draconian.

Dickbat,

The Mayor post was meant to be a joke at it was clearly a typo on the subject line. It was copied by a wink emoji. You appear to be making a big deal out of it.

I'm struggling to understand your point on the rest other than your thinly veiled barbs.

Siggins,

All good points, though I'm not versed in the situations with long term sustainable production in the lower 48. I made the comparison purely from a geographic/climatic perspective.

Had a coffee yesterday with a pal who lives in the Gulf and he made the same point about the gulf states looking for alternative investment fields as their faith in the ability to safely operate at home remains in question. Even if this current mess is fixed, the area has a propensity to flare up at a moment's notice.

10.42

Utter claptrap.

You can't answer the points made and therefore you bail out. What a guy!

10.39

Siggins,

I am long, I have NEVER shorted and I do not day trade - life in complicated enough! - and I question points (not people). I'm not a ramper, I'm NOT a deramper, though I think you've worked that out for yourself. People choose to view my posts as negative clearly do not read them - examine the content. I endeavour to keep to the issues NOT the people. I fill in gaps in an attempt to provide balance if issues are blatantly ignored and a counterpoint, if I disagree.

My strategy is based on assets and macroeconomics and NOT market sentiment at any particular point - too fickle, often too short-lived, in many cases and nigh impossible to predict. Hence why I'm not a trader. An experience a couple of years ago when the US market got hold of PANR was a perfect case in point.

I get your points about onshore/offshore, but let's not forget the massive differential in cost and risk with onshore - compare Alaska with the US lower 48, for example.

Do I see reasons for the SP rising dramatically? Yes, I do. If a major does sign up sooner or later then that would be fantastic, but this in and of itself will not provide the panacea, as people even this morning have assumed. The devil will be in the detail. it needs to be the right deal. Not, incidentally just one which sees Spencer escape with his shirt!

I'm sick of hearing about 'my pessimism' or 'my negatives'. I never concentrate on negatives, I try to balance issues. let's face it there are that many ultra - positives here to allow room for balance. It would be unhealthy otherwise. If all you see is pessimism and negatives than you are not understanding the points I make or this whole investment has become too personal to you and you may be in over your head financially and therefore desperate. Even JS advises against that!

I hope it succeeds here and I'm open-minded enough to know that there could well be something that comes at us from left field which may deliver and which is hitherto almost unimaginable, however, on the balance of probabilities we are where we are and the outcome, whatever it is will arise from known knowns and not from a little green man from Mars landing with a bag full of dollar bills.

I want PANR to SUCCEED! I hope not to have wasted almost exactly 5 years since my first purchase of PANR shares, having been in 88E a further 3 years prior to that, hoping that similar and in some cases conjoined geology might deliver.

"i am not commenting on other posters when they speculate on what they feel the share price could be,because i frankly dont know."

But what you do know is that uninformed and potentially misleading speculation and BS calculations are just that. Some might be happy to turn a blind eye. Me.....??? Nahh!

Nice talking to you again.

cb