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Fair enough, regarding lack of certainty.
So which large pharmas were tuned in on Thursday?
Guess it always boded well for Abingdon’s competitiveness that we retained them while sacking off other manufacturers (BBI) for not being able to meet CoG targets. Glad to hear for ABDX, but of course I’d rather all/more of that capacity were used for AffiDx! Perhaps this is part of the reason why our previously touted uk capacity of c.5m/month has dropped to 2-3.
Hi Marik (et al.), I’ve seen a lot of reference to large pharma showing interest in Thursday’s presentations, but I can’t seem to find out who that was. Is this info available somewhere?
Was going to say as others have - Paul Hill Vox interview 25 Feb, AS says he understands from the regulators that phase 2 would be pivotal.
I take it that, working closely with the MHRA (UK), this is their view.
I’m intrigued that we are expecting to file an IND to run another AVA6000 phase 1 trial in parallel in the US. Can anyone shed any light on why we’d do this? And how transferable approval is from the MHRA to other markets? Is separate US FDA approval required for the US market? Is that more transferable to others? Or does it just most easily open access to the most lucrative market? Would they have different views from MHRA on which phase of the trial is pivotal?
Or is the US Phase 1 trial IND either:
- to enlist US hospitals into the ongoing study at the next phase?
- to start raising greater awareness and hype around AVA6K in US hospitals from an earlier point in time?
I’m curious it’s something they’ve talked about doing at about the same time as they’ve also taken on some prominent US-based oncology advisers. There must be some grand strategy at work here.
Ah, good point LDA…
In the presentation AS said: “The current manufacturing capacity at GAD is around 1 million tests per month. In principle, that can be scaled actually, but I just want to give you the facts of where we’re at right now, around 1 million tests per month.”
So it’s not 100% unequivocal from these words that this is what is being sold. However, my feeling is that since that this 1 + (1 to 2) is a climb down from previous guidance of “capacity of 5 million tests per month AVAILABLE to Avacta”, and the dropping of the word ‘available’, that it probably is the current run rate on what they are producing. Also if they aren’t yet using all of this capacity at GAD, why would they be bringing on the capacity at ABDX?
I also don’t think they will be producing and stockpiling tests. They just don’t have the cash pile in diagnostics to do that, and the buffer solution only had a 6 month shelf life (will be very interested to see if this changes). So production probably equals sales, more or less.
But obviously I’d rather not have to interpret!
LNL, I am much more confident about that now, knowing that we are happily selling 1m/month already, and bringing on another 1-2m/month capacity with Abingdon. If we were building from say 100k/month I’d be more concerned.
Bearing in mind that only ~£10m from last year’s fundraise went to diagnostics and they’ve spent ~£1.4m on new facilities and however much on staff costs, the cash flow from selling 1m tests/month will be building a strong balance sheet in the diagnostics division, and can be redeployed into bigger production runs.
I think the demand is there, hence bringing online Abingdon. One of the big sources of demand IMO will likely be the travel testing services - I think AS stated they were selling to these already, and with the rules change this month in the UK it’s a market that’s set to increase hugely.
Set against this confidence on the LFT picture is some uncertainty over whether having active clinical trials will significantly step up the cash burn, but I think for limited patient numbers in Phase I this is probably not so bad..?
- AVCT’s maiden cash-flow positive month (with or without HUA), based on ABDX LFT capacity coming on stream and guidance of 1-2EUR profit per test.
- News on HUA and (if approved) Medusa sales launch
- PK data on AVA6k
- Usual curve balls and unexpected partnership updates.
I love it when a plan comes together.
Conversely, it would also be in ridiculously bad taste to be “VERY pleased” with the clinical progress if there had been any adverse effects or tumour progression.
Just as we have all learned more than we ever expected about LFTs, I look forward now to becoming far better informed on clinical drug trials! Cheers for sharing.
Oh and also - Ref the thread title - does this mean the Yanks are finally here!?
We have to think about the AVA6k amounts in concentrations, and bear in mind the tumour is much smaller than the amount of healthy tissue in the body - thus with dosage scaled by mg/kg body mass, the same overall amount of Dox released into a smaller volume can be many multiples of the regular concentration (depending on clearance rates).
I think (would need to check) that the presentation on mice was showing an 18x increase in *concentration* of Doxorubicin in the tumour relative to healthy tissue (with 6x regular dose). That 18x will vary by tumour type of course, depending on the expression of FAPa per tumour.
So as the Dox is preferentially released into the tumour, then yep, it seems reasonable to think that an 80mg/kg dose could lead to much higher Dox concentration in the tumour than an equivalent amount of standard Dox, as well as much lower concentration in healthy tissues.
So it does seem feasible that even these entry level doses of Pro-Dox could be both more effective and less harmful than standard-of-care Doxorubicin. No wonder AS is so excited!
Urgh, you lot…
The story is more than positive enough without the NL piece. I don’t plan on selling in the next few months, during which the picture should become clearer.
I also didn’t come here to undermine a TR1 holder, but he - rather disappointingly - did a great job of that himself.
Anyway, will trot off and check again when there’s more good news to discuss, or maybe for a lap of honour/shame when we open the box on Schrodinger’s NL Revenue Share and see if it’s alive.
Genuinely, best of luck to you all.
Hi, I’m no troll, just an interested investor, and the “negative articles” you refer to are MOS’s own RNS’s and info from Companies House to support an appraisal of the value of our CLN investment in QMG!!! When people say DYOR, isn’t this exactly what you’re supposed to do?
The answer I was looking for is eg:
“Good question re the Netherlands partnership. Here is some reliable info that supports an alternative view that there is some revenue share with QMG in NL…”
Instead I seem to have met with insults and recrimination and even threats! I’d suggest to people not responding like that as it just shows weakness. Here for an adult discussion if you’re game. Cheers.
Anyway, looking forward to putting this unpopular view on NL behind us. There is so much to look forward to, but I’ve a feeling we might need to focus this month on the additive benefit of Argentina (with affiliate revenue), exponential subscriber growth in Mexico and new territory launches in the coming days/weeks, maybe not so much NL (until and unless proven otherwise).
Hi City, as you seem so desperate for an answer, my holdings here are about 7/8% of my portfolio - one of my top 5 holdings and probably the most exciting at the moment. Here for the mid to long term as i believe it is waaaaay undervalued and the market is just waking up to what a beast this is going to be. I’m not concerned that my interpretation of the RNSs and interviews will in any way impact the company’s operations. If you’re so concerned about the short term share price might I suggest you come across as a somewhat desperate trader?
I have no idea who Auc or Buster are, but they seem to appreciate decent discussion. Others aren’t interested in any message delivered without fluffy pom-poms. Good luck if that’s your style! You’ll need it.
Lastly, you are bonkers! Have a good day. Here’s hoping for a good rise (in the share price).
Yeah, I’ll be delighted if we later hear we are getting x millions revenue from NL. Anyway, disagree with my take on NL or not, I hope the information on the CLNs is useful.
Your attempt at response was to be insulting, and you have offered no counter-arguments. I know there’s money involved but for chrissakes don’t be so insecure in your investment that you aren’t willing to even discuss it! When all you do is throw insults it appears you have nothing intelligent to say in response and you only damage your credibility to any neutral observer. Your credibility would be better served by engaging with the content of my posts than flinging insults and accusations around.
Hi citytilidie, thanks for the response. I am working with all the information I can find that has been released into the public domain by MOS. If that is ambiguous or insufficient to appraise the opportunity, I’d be delighted to hear more to get a better view.
My agenda is only to understand my investment, share that understanding and test it through discussion. I am completely open-minded to other views and interpretations. If you have other info that refutes what I’m saying here, please do share it.
Thanks, I’ll take the compliment, but please don’t get me wrong, I’m very sanguine on the opportunities from Argentina, Mexico and the other hinted offerings currently in the works.
However, if there’s a disconnect between reality over the launch in NL compared to the prevailing view on here and Twitter, I think it’s best we realise it now so we can make more informed decisions as the price continues to (hopefully) rise.
3/3
In conclusion I think while NL is a huge opportunity for QMG, for MOS it likely ensures we’ll at least get our money back on the CLNs and potentially secure up to 3.5%ish of a very profitable business. It likely also is the sweetener that enables and supports the partnership with QMG that is delivering direct results for MOS from other territories where we launch our own sites.
2/3!
And in particular this document:
https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/document-api-images-live.ch.gov.uk/docs/xYySWcLVF-VkG-hLSmhnm53heTYqHkDGiRcTVqGUXao/application-pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=ASIAWRGBDBV3BTQ4HV7X%2F20210930%2Feu-west-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20210930T172142Z&X-Amz-Expires=60&X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEG0aCWV1LXdlc3QtMiJHMEUCIQD9zlP%2B65RVJiO2ZPCPB5egN9GXTe%2BMUB5eeddZgAVdqwIgDwI0E0dMLMaIzPXEtRS8FEzhWrR4fLaTghv8sZqmCU4qgwQI1v%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2FARADGgw0NDkyMjkwMzI4MjIiDM6p%2FCSNGZUp%2BsUhMirXA%2Bkb%2Fl1%2BkVuuuNRh58blJz46IFTrGymxBkJMKAZeHvcb2KKhrcmqDiongKCsdpkNK5ajxw3%2FIy1D1kOdtkCXOZdzZsTmNKDBTJbe8BYq1L%2FPQRNbKVDyDUgMFuTeI1J3j2YyQ6WxE3KrIZHbgt52%2FIlDF6DITt0n8x4IsDXmRzUomXWNIBIb1KJEK05YKYCMzaJNdYxBLFtI4HGUcJDf4dygrfDIYRdS2qClEZx6%2FHCje2jH%2F41mVk%2FWvWIOmil9l26so4eLpWw7lJqKC9zQKqPgRizSfrJDbxiTB6SWXuHZMNePkxtMhPABCuBq4pU7%2BURAZvztwp72hWXIKmqaWDVVaA32SsLdhyI2MK5SH8KkJOXXGY8vdY0SRcgcdd7YjjNoQGXdLtYW4FX1wMpE31%2Fab92qwFTWUhKr2U34SfeBWAqyptHrUQtvoKjHeCp5eefOSoykGuRVjS8vJLOd8hVbdvI4fZxBw7NqiXwggzprbuKvB%2BLTWZA6m5Q6rHLLjE8vPes6ScSNw9H8kHfjsXSPC07GZjiA38o6T95pu5qB9jCvcAHfBMRt6QOdUB3Qbw%2BQ3CRZtm0hZtu6pXN0STuLcu9jbIvJknOGdmSQJJIsP0popi0iIjC06taKBjqlAXpT6MXtkFtpPZKHvmkxj0W3bEW%2Be%2Bmy5i9VwqhAFmk3qJVailgCE%2BD2pf4Fpln4BVfUCJDOQgMH3jlPY6uUG1kmOHOH8DNWfra7V9vND3vGpPHm48aGo2R64Lxjyh%2FF8UHohULu96d%2B5CgBSmWL%2Fp3uZNKbDwkCUCmByLn7I0ZVAp3BG5HASPYNUXtL6VbRm3W4qDmNPtQg8BVb0HgYbOfdRanbKg%3D%3D&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%2212489763_sh01_2021-08-19.pdf%22&X-Amz-Signature=03739394927345d633d79891b1575d6959ba9d65f6d9ac31b75a0e32d494bb4a
This shows there are 201,064,459 shares currently in issue in QMG, and in fact 101,064,459 of those shares (~half) were issued in August 2021. Thus if the number of shares were not to change (unlikely), the convertible loan notes could be converted to a holding of c.3.5% of QMG. Which for £500k would value QMG at about £14m. Of course these calculations completely change if the shares are diluted and/or floated, but it gives some indication of the scale of the QMG pie on the table.
I think the April RNS is the one that had confusing language about the potential for the NL venture to be joined:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MOS/mos-partnership-with-qmg-enters-new-market-exayys8vmot7cn7.html
“The Netherlands launch represents a major milestone in the MOS/QMG partnership and opens up opportunities for additional revenue for MOS.”
However in that same RNS Nigel Burton, (MOS) Non-Executive Director, said: Nigel Burton, Non-Executive Director, said:
"We are pleased with the progress of our partnership with QMG and are delighted to be able to help them launch and grow in the Dutch market.”
And since then the September RNS’ are clear in their language that the Dutch launch is Quanta’s sites.