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I’ve been digging into this further to see how MOS makes money from QMG launching its own sites in NL. I think people are assuming too much return to MoS from this, but
From today’s RNS:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MOS/update-on-streams-mexico-service-subscriber-target-qyiy5512yeaoxin.html
“… as announced on 15 September, the Company can also confirm that Quanta Media Group ("QMG") will be launching the marketing of its own services to the Dutch market from tomorrow.”
They are careful to point out that is QMG’s “own services”, ie a revenue generator for them. Going back to the 15th September RNS:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MOS/update-on-partnership-with-and-funding-to-quanta-gt6ap1qt418gqkr.html
The messaging about the NL launch is again all about Quanta launching its own sites there, and achieving milestones that unlock the next £250k tranche of the convertible loan notes. So where is the interest for MOS in doing this? Presumably it is about more than just ensuring QMG are solvent enough to repay these loans down the line…
Going back to the original 31st March RNS announcement of the partnership with and funding to QMG, we get info about the terms of these convertible loan notes:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MOS/mos-partnership-with-and-funding-to-quanta-zy6f8ejp1djo063.html
“ In order to accelerate development of these opportunities and advance Quanta's business plans, Mobile Streams is providing QMGH a Convertible Loan Note of £250,0000 (the "Loan"), with a further £250,000 to be made available subject to achieving various agreed milestones, centred around its entrance to key markets. The Loan, which accrues interest at 5% per annum until repayment or conversion, and which is redeemable on 31 December 2022, can be converted into Ordinary Shares in QMGH ("Ordinary Shares") earlier on the following agreed basis: at a price per Ordinary Share being the lower of a) £0.07 per Ordinary Share, b) the price any other Ordinary Shares are issued prior to conversion or c) a discount of 20% to the valuation of the Ordinary Shares in connection with Admission to AIM or any other regulated market or on change of control of QMGH.”
So at the least there’s a 5% interest return, but of more interest is the option to convert to shares in QMG. Here is our (and MOS’s) interest in QMG making loads of money in the Dutch market.
But what does 7p a share maximum (~7.1m shares for £500k) mean when their shares are not floated? For this we need to look to the info available on Companies House:
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/12489763/filing-history
May, like Candi_Cane says, you need to know that on AIM the prices are set by market makers who see your stop loss order, and will happily orchestrate a short-lived drop of the bid price to collect your shares, before raising it back to where it was. During this time it is typical for them not to make (many) shares available to buy at the temporarily lower price, so the drop is completely artificial and one-sided.
You’re better off on AIM having a mental stop loss in mind that you trigger manually when the price is reached.
Indeed a good list Bella - and a lot of countries there with much larger populations than Australia. I was taking them as one example of a country making earnest efforts to control the virus (hence test quality being of utmost importance), and where the very tangible impact of China’s foreign policy makes them more unpopular than they evidently are over here.
I find visualising these potential opportunities and stacking up what we know about them vs Alastair’s statements makes them more believable for me!
Not yet - they’re still working on transferring the approvals to enable sales in APAC countries. It was 37% of global demand for covid LFTs in general. When we have the relevant approvals for those markets, we can sell more, to more customers.
It was also a positive that these markets tend to value quality, and UK/Europe provenance. I take that to mean countries like Australia, where they are actually serious about controlling the virus, and where “Made in China” might not be such a popular tag.
AgentB, as I understand it the commercial model is that at some point Avacta would license AVA6000 to a large pharma partner with the resources to complete any final clinical trials/regulatory approvals, manufacture the drug and launch it at scale in multiple territories globally.
Avacta simply don’t have the resources atm (in terms of cash, manufacturing, supply chain infrastructure, etc) to do all that, at least with their first drug.
Typically for small pharma developers, the further the drug is taken through clinical trials and derisked already, the greater its value is at that point of licensing to a bigger partner.
Cash burn of c.£10m in H1 with cash reserves of c.£37m at period end shows >18 months’ runway (irrespective of LFT sales which have a strong chance to make Avacta Sep-sufficient by 2023), and shows excellent capital discipline, given the ramping up of activity on so many fronts.
Very funny. Got any better material?
I guess it is indicative of how all the big ticket items are ticking along nicely that the detractors are focussing on pointless minutiae and struggling to come up with any meaningful criticisms of today’s update.
And thanks Wally for the superb notes. I had the presentation on in the background while working and missed so much of that!
Very happy with Mexico numbers, which as a venture will singlehandedly more than underpin the current SP.
But help me out here, this RNS makes it sound like the NL launch is for QMG, not MOS. Previously from the podcasts I had the impression it was a joint venture that would benefit both. Are they clarifying that as a misconception, or am I missing something?
Happy to be wrong, not trying to cause mischief here! Cheers.
Well tbf they did bury it in a paragraph that led with material almost designed to make the informed reader skip to the next one.
Pretty sure this is new:
“ AffiDX® SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Lateral Flow Test
During the reporting period the Company completed the clinical validation of the AffiDX® SARS-CoV-2 antigen lateral flow test which was shown to have 100% sensitivity for clinical samples with Ct=27 (considered as a high to medium infectious viral load) and 98% sensitivity for clinical samples with Ct values up to 31 (low viral load) obtained from 98 positive COVID-19 patients. The clinical specificity was 99% obtained from 102 negative samples. Additional data (a further 134 negative samples) obtained more recently has further defined the clinical specificity to be 99.6%.”
So we're up to 1 false positive out of 236.
Ay, and Mark Barry has done well so far soaking up the 3% holding from FMM investments (and more). But Myles did say he has something like £200k worth of warrants at 0.5p, so if this keeps going as expected, I think he’ll do alright from those.
Thanks - the significance of this passed me by at the time!
I made some kale pesto today. It’s fantastic. 20% kale, 80% stuff that is nice.
Ah, shame re PNT2004 - assume you mean it’s not CanSEEK(TM), which uses the PreCISION technology? Thanks for clarification. Always beat to check directly if in doubt!
Nice snippet, Bella. Their wish list for oncology sounds like a straight description of the Pre|CISION and TMAC platforms. Shows that if these babies work, it is EXACTLY what big Pharma is looking for.
LLP, see slide 16:
https://journey.ct.events/view/f6338e19-ea31-468f-bace-6c6fe219f8eb
“Point’s CanSEEK(TM) has been sub-licensed from both Bach Biosciences and Avacta Life Sciences, who has branded the technology as Pre|Cision(TM) (an Avacta trademark).”
Oh, belatedly, I’m there now. However I now have a plan to spend a few of my final hours doing confusing things with a mystical air of purpose.
I don’t know what to make of the epi-pen. Did your mate just have a great twisted sense of humour in a way that they would delight to mess with your head from beyond the grave? Sorry to hear of your loss, in any case.
Some good info on our partners’ progress yesterday at Astrea (thanks Poirot) and Point Biopharma.
Some of AIM is showing green this week as well, which is lovely! May it come for us here soon. Patience needed though, as ever. I’m doing my best to ignore the government’s farts and whistles, and anyone who says there simply MUST be an RNS TOMORROW for whatever reason.
Agreed, PAH00, and the presentation shows they are going at it “full balls”. They evidently see this as the shiny new crown jewel in their pipeline.
Maltby - this isn’t Affimers mate! This is PreCision, the other platform. Personally I hope AVA6k beats this to approval for use in patients as well, because it’s a competing therapy now, addressing probably the exact same use cases.
One advantage on that front is that Doxorubicin (in AVA6k) is an approved standard-of-care therapy, and we “just” need to prove that the new delivery system has a clinical benefit and is at least as safe. Point’s offering is (I believe) a novel therapy in a newer treatment area with only 3 radioligands approved to date, so may have more hoops to jump through.
We also have 1 year’s headstart.
But as I say, at least we have royalties to gain if PNT2004 does well. And ultimately, success in either (or both) is good for cancer patients, which is the most important thing.