Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Thanks for posting Jaykay, good to hear! This delay is virtual insanity. If ever patience were needed…
Wonder if the best bet might have been to submit HUA to all the major authorities in parallel and see which one sticks first! Did they give any indication that they were pursuing other such angles, or are they wholly dependent on the EU regulatory body at this stage for HUA?
Wow, this article really mangles the science explanation! I mean, really, really mangles it. I don’t think they got anything right. They also misinterpreted the deal with LG Chem, and ignored lots of other promising collaborations.
No wonder the biotech sector is an unpredictable mystery to its author.
But great to see some more positive coverage!
Some misinformation here to correct.
It wasn’t that there was no demand for the combined S & N test. What AS said was along the lines that AffiDx performs so darn well already, that at the moment there was no point in developing the combined test. It would be more expensive and take more time to develop and validate. (In my opinion, with potentially more read-out lines, it would be over-complicated for the purpose required, and potentially therefore easier to misread which could reduce clinical accuracy.) But if market/virus conditions change in a way that makes it more valuable/viable, AS said they and Mologic are ready to develop it in future if required.
Thanks, thought I had but clearly more to do.
Mowser got me thinking. Why has the LiveScores rollout been more successful than even MOS expected? Why isn’t this something that other companies can do as effectively? On that, I thought this was a really interesting segment from Mark Epstein in yesterday’s podcast:
“Why is the product potentially being so successful? Well, it’s powered by our Streams platform. We know the AI behind that is a massive game-changer for marketing. We know we’re delivering our strategy and content around those platforms in a way that other companies can’t. And we know that’s having an extremely positive effect on uptake and on longevity.”
Stepping back a moment, it’s fascinating to see the arc the company has taken, in developing a powerful marketing tool in Streams, and then finding that potentially the best way to monetise it is not through selling it, but applying it themselves!
I must confess though, I still don’t fully understand what Streams does in the LiveScores context. Maybe ME going into too much detail would give away some of the commercial edge? But it seems to be the secret sauce, and one of the reasons Quanta need MOS. Can anyone enlighten me?
Agree with everything above. Of course we (and even MOS) have not enough info for a proper forward-looking SOTP estimate yet, so as I said it is very much a simplistic estimate based on coarse assumptions. It doesn’t take into account new territory launches, subscription payments, Streams revenue, potential acceleration in new users, etc.
But personally I find it helpful to quantify the rough direction of travel from what I think are the most significant chunks of expected future revenue that we know about so far. And they look great. I’d also assume the margins will be relatively high and only get higher as the number of users scales up.
The main question, given such bullish forecasts, would be execution. Can they deliver what they’ve said they are going to? And as ME says, they’ve delivered on everything they promised so far, and are moving at quite some pace into new territories, so I see no reason why not. It’s a frictionless software rollout, not some complex logistical exercise. With every new territory launch, they need a tailoring of the offering to the local market, regulatory compliance and commercial deals, all of which they’ve evidently been landing. Any political/regulatory risk is steadily being diversified and therefore reduced as they expand to new countries (not that I see this being a problem - if anything it sounds like the South American markets are opening up).
It looks good, really good.
Phenomenal podcast yesterday. Nice to hear a CEO completely on point and at the same time being assiduously careful to stay in the lane of what he is allowed to tell us. For one thing, he’s not allowed to throw out irresponsible revenue estimates willy-nilly. But we are, so why not!
ME’s indicative suggestion was take an affiliate revenue base of $50 (based on $40-200/lead industry range), with conversion rates of 5-10%, which taken together raises the floor on my range as previously estimated. As follows…
Taking Argentina first, if we assumed:
- 5-10% conversion to affiliate revenue lead per user per month
- Av $50/lead (gross) for affiliate revenue
- Steady growth of subscribers at 6000/month for 1 year
- 50% Rev share with Quanta
Then after one year Argentina could be providing MOS with 72,000*$50*(5-10%)*50% = $90k-180k per month, ie >$1m-2m per annum and growing.
Considering that (per ME guidance) Argentina is expected to produce more than Mexico, which in turn is now expected to produce more than the previously guided $1.5m over 3 years, this seems like the right ball park.
Transferring the assumptions above to Brazil (scaling for 5x population) - obviously over-simplistic, but a starting point at least - it could feasibly build to a $5-10m/annum (and growing) revenue stream for MOS over a year or two, with 5-10% conversion rates.
Dunno about you, but makes me think about increasing my weighting. Happy to discuss if anyone has a different view than the above.
Indeed, AgentB. Not sure quite how you ended up on that list. Ok it’s probably all the conspiracy stuff, but that’s another thing altogether from trolling Avacta.
Given that Novacyt are also waiting on approval for 9/10 of their tests that they submitted by the deadline of 1 September, I suspect gross incompetence in the civil service, and a backlog, rather than any vendetta against us at this point. This is on the UKHSA. Avacta have done what they needed to and met the deadline.
But as I keep saying, it’s just the UK. We know we’re selling about 1m/month at least. We just know now that’s nearly all outside the UK.
E&F, interesting idea. But I think the CZI support the Medrxiv publication website generally, not the AffiDX paper specifically. You see that symbol on the bottom of all their webpages.
They sure can set achievable targets and write a great RNS. I think the read-across to Brazil is potentially interesting.
But taking Argentina first, if we assumed:
- 1% conversion to affiliate revenue lead per user per month
- Av $100/lead (gross) for affiliate revenue
- Steady growth of subscribers at 6000/month for 1 year
- 50% Rev share with Quanta
Then after one year Argentina could be providing MOS with 72,000*$100*1%*50% = $36,000 per month, ie >$400,000 per annum and growing.
But that 1% conversion rate is my most uncertain variable. To me it seems conservative, but I always try to be conservative on a base case. If conversion rates are materially higher, which might be entirely possible given users choose to download the app, then the revenue could dwarf this. Eg with 5%/user/month conversion rates the estimate goes to revenue of $2m/annum from Argentina.
Then, Brazil is a country with 5* the population and lately a more stable economy. Transferring the assumptions above, it could feasibly build to a $2-10m/annum (and growing) revenue stream for MOS over a year or two, with 1-5% conversion rates.
So what would be typical conversion rates of users to affiliate revenue? Keen to hear others’ views or any analogues that might be relevant. Maybe conversion rates are high upon initial download and drop off after that? Depends on whether the users keep using it, I guess. On that front the fact it’s a great service for football stats lovers gives a good chance of ongoing retention through linking well to an existing lifelong interest for the users.
Either way, exciting times ahead and I reckon there’s an uncertainty range on outcomes that sits almost entirely north of the current share price.
And I for one
… like Roman numerals
And our LG Chem collaboration is on a PD-L1 inhibitor.
While flying below most investors’ radars, I reckon that partnership could be one of the first in the therapeutics division to bear weighty fruit. They seem to be pushing it hard.
From 29 Sep RNS:
“LG Chem has successfully completed certain pre-clinical in-vivo models in the PD-L1/XT programme leading to the selection of a pre-clinical candidate for further development towards the clinic and triggering an undisclosed milestone payment.”
If all continues to go well, maybe we see Phase I trials starting back end of next year/early 2023?
On the Centerwatch site at the bottom of the page, you can change the search radius around Sheffield to 250 miles and it shows you all 6 sites in the UK. Then you can contact any of them about the AVA6000 trials.
Don’t think that means they are all recruiting yet. I think this is just to let patients have more info upfront and preemptively express interest.
I think that the 80 patients is an expected number of participants across the whole of the phase Ia and Ib study, rather than a present requirement. We’re still doing slow and steady dose escalations in cohorts of 3 patients, to my knowledge.
Might be wrong, but looks like a study summary and notice that Sheffield (and 5 other sites) are included in the overall study design, rather than recruiting now.
They are selling everything they can make.
The issue is building supply not demand.
When that balance flips and/or Medusa come online, I’m sure we’ll see some advertising. Until then it would just be a needless expense, something I’m happy they are not doing.
Also it’s not currently available for sale directly to end consumers (in theory), so any marketing is likely to be much more focussed, not something everyone will see. In the diagnostics industry they are certainly building their profile, among other ways by sponsoring/hosting diagnostics conferences, and making a name for themselves through the phenomenal quality of their product.
2 other reasons to be tentatively positive, from interim results (when they would have known how first first patient dosing was going):
- Avacta are still planning to file an IND for AVA6000 trials in US by end 2021
- Next candidate in the Pre|Cision pipeline now being pushed more in company news. From the interim results: “AVA3996 [Pro-Velcade] programme … remains on track for clinical development candidate selection by the end of 2021.”
Still in 3 hospitals total.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04969835?term=Ava6000&draw=2&rank=1
But can fully get behind the sentiment of your first sentence! ;)
Well said Lilarch. All the confrontation and bickering would probably repel me if I were looking in, new to the company.
And drawing us into that is one of the many games the cynical players are engaged in, along with ad hominem attacks and attempts to sow general FUD.
Have a good weekend all.
Yeah apologies - I realised that, but I only extended the last post by a couple minutes and reported the OP immediately after. To repeat here in case that gets removed as it should:
It will be very helpful if any other trolls want to clearly show their colours today by pushing the “x% down!” narrative after the nonsensical uncrossing trade yesterday. We’re actually 3/4% up today in real terms, and you know it well.