Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
I'm not happy, but I am content, with the share buy back. Since it was launched there has been no price sensitive news issued. But there will be soon.
Despite the lack of news, the SP has gone from about 1.12 to 1.32 - nothing dramatic, but positive in the absence of news.
There will be news shortly. The Cobre IPO will complete shortly and that will be a positive. What it will do to the SP remains to be seen. But it should add to MTR's NAV. It could add over £1 million immediately. Greater impact will then come if CBE, KML or SFR announce positive drilling results. Any of those could happen in the coming quarter.
SFR closed at $6.19 - its highest since November. Cobre IPO is heavily oversubscribed. Copper is at its highest since April.
Looking good. Not sure who is selling or why given this but the fundamentals will win in the end.
It was looking very good the last I saw - up from $13,675 yesterday to $14,349 this evening.
!5 Jan was an indicative date for listing of CBE on the ASX. It was a date published in December, with a footnote saying it was subject to change. I guess they weren't quite ready to list today.
Hi dontpanick
Who knows what will happen to the SP. But there should be a positive impact if the IPO goes as well as the early signs suggest. A few pieces of data against which to assess the IPO: MTR will have invested roughly £1.5 million; if Cobre opens at 20 cents MTR will hold roughly £2 million in Cobre shares - a £500,000 paper profit. For every 1 cent above that MTR paper profit will be £100,000 higher.
Here's hoping for 30 cents!
Yes, it's bound to be Sprott. Bought in 2017 and 2018 at prices up to 3.00. Now with copper recovering and MTR's prospects looking better than for over a year they're sure to think now is the perfect time to sell at 1.35.
Nice to see nickel back above $14,000 - now over $14,150. I know it's not relevant to HZM's income in 2021 and beyond. But the nickel price has clearly been pushing and pulling the HZM SP for over 6 months.
Keith et al
I think the reason that so little was bought initially is that Arden is constrained to buy only at a maximum of 105% of the VWAP of the previous five trading days. Once it started, the SP jumped beyond 110% of VWAP due to relatively heavy PI buying (I think from memory the first purchase was at 1.26p and the SP jumped to 1.40p.) So until the last few days Arden couldn't buy at all. The modest buys since have maintained the SP at 1.375p - without them the SP would be dipped to 1.325p.
Don't know why Arden haven't bought more over the past two days but assume they'll be back buying tomorrow.
In fact, MTR is an investment company. It holds £20 million worth of shares in a major copper/gold producer - Sandfire. These shares alone are worth 1.30p at the current MCap.
Nothing is certain in life, of course. But here are some analysts views on the outlook for 2020.
Jefferies
The firm is most bullish on copper miners for 2020 as current supplies won’t be able to meet “even a modest cyclical recovery in demand." Expects Freeport-McMoRan Inc., First Quantum Minerals Ltd. and Glencore PLC to benefit most from the copper price recovery. Freeport and First Quantum are his top picks. Also expects select iron ore miners such as Anglo American PLC, Vale SA and Rio Tinto PLC to outperform as prices are expected to remain high, peaking at more than $100 per ton in the near-term. The firm is “least bullish” on gold.
Goldman Sachs
“Copper is our most bullish view,” for 2020, according to the commodity team. Copper demand in China has been particularly restrained by “poor performance in the grid, property and transportation sectors” and that’s likely to change heading into 2020. “We expect strong completion growth in the next two years, continuing a positive trend in the property sector since August,” and grid investment is likely to pick up strongly in the first quarter of 2020 thanks to the government infrastructure stimulus. Meanwhile, the “strategic case for gold” is still strong.
Citi
Most bullish on alumina, copper and coking coal in 2020, while bearish on zinc and iron ore. Thinks commodities will benefit from modestly higher global growth, with much of the improvement coming from emerging markets. The commodities team is also bullish on gold in the medium-term. The bank’s equity analyst upgraded Teck Resources Ltd. to buy on better a coking coal outlook and valuation.
Morgan Stanley
The bank’s commodities team expects a moderate rise in demand in 2020, driven by a “mini-cycle recovery” through year-end. Remains constructive on the North American mining sector and particularly favors copper exposure. Sees Freeport-McMoRan and Teck Resources as the best way to gain exposure to bullish copper sentiment. Commodities team is bearish on the aluminum and alumina outlook, but the equity analysts still see some upside in 2020 for Alcoa Corp. The team also expects higher met coal prices as ex-China demand should tighten the market. Bank’s top commodity picks are cobalt and copper, while the least preferred are iron ore, lithium and zinc.
Source: Bloomberg
No, Walter. These are funds to maximise the chances of the company profiting from forthcoming base metals price increases.
See my next post.
Well I've been buying. I'm not going to become a significant shareholder but this does look a very good investment to me. I see that nickel - which slipped just under $13,000 a day or two ago - is now up to $13,800: up 4.5% today alone. Today's nickel price is not really relevant to the nickel sales that HZM will make, of course, but the drop in the nickel price must have contributed to the HZM SP fall. Hopefully both will go up now.
Who knows if it's a small, short-term spike, or if this time Trump will do some sort of deal with China and speculators will look again at the fundamental shortfall in copper supply coming in the medium term.
Anyway, copper is back up to $2.70 again, which if it holds or goes higher will boost SFR profits and thus MTR SP. It'll help the Cobre IPO too.
Yes, the real spread is smaller than advertised - 1.17 to sell, 1.215 to buy. As 1.215 is nearer to 1.15 than 1.30 it shows in red.
By nature, exploration news is unpredictable. But MTR has three large irons in the fire:
1. Sandfire has begun exploring where MOD stopped. Discovery of more copper at A4 or elsewhere in the former JV areas would boost MTR in two ways - through SFR share price appreciation and through future net smelter royalties.
2. KML is currently drilling and we expect initial results soon. It also expects clearance to begin drilling only a few miles from T3, where a discovery would be a bonanza, given the proximity to the SFR mine.
3. Cobre has an attractive prospect (see its new website for details) which seems to have garnered strong interest in its forthcoming IPO. Here, MTR will probably be well up on its investment even before any further drilling news.
Who knows what may come of these?
I'm not going to question anyone's motives here. But I can explain MM's resignation from GGP. This came about as MTR exercised its GGP warrants then sold all of its GGP holding. A good deal for MTR shareholders as a small initial investment was sold for millions. (Probably paid for a year's drilling in the Kalahari and avoided a placing.)
MM had to resign as his seat on the GGP board was granted because of MTR's holding in GGP.
I recall GGP dropped from 2.45p to about 0.60p subsequent to MTR selling and MM stepping down. So it was good business for MTR.
… and another nice article tweeted by HZM:
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/panoramic-bid-unleashes-nickel-frenzy/news-story/069812486952613e23a384237a240f69
The Cobre deal is beginning to look really good for MTR.
This RNS tells us that the IPO is going really well with investors. MTR has got in early and secured the right to 19.99% of Cobre. At the planned price of AUS$0.20 per share, MTR will hold 19,350,000 shares if it buys the maximum it can. (That's 6,600,000 existing holding, 750,000 bonus announced today, 12,000,000 planned further investment in the IPO.)
If Cobre opened in January at the IPO price of $0.20, MTR's holding would be worth £2.05 million (assuming 53p per AUS $) against an investment of £1.54 million. So a £500,000 paper profit if Cobre opens at $0.20 per share. But I sense it may open at a premium to that, increasing the paper profit potentially substantially. Who knows, but I'm liking the look of this.
Nice spot, Forest. Aurelius stock - in which MTR has a holding - seems to be up 66% on the news.
I've added too - yes, it's crazy cheap.