Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
What had been promised and whether it has all been delivered in today's RNS is all very interesting. Depends on whether you're a glass-half-full person, I guess; or if you're pedantic; or like an argument.
But as others have said here, the key point is that finance deal risk has been removed - the finance is in the bag. What's left to find out is the level of equity dilution and what offtake deal will be put in place and on what terms. That's important detail; but the investment case here is now so firm this is now a strong buy.
I'm fully invested but, in view of the risks, before today I'd have been nervous recommending this to friends and colleagues. Not any more.
I see RDT got up to about 90c before profit-taking. Wouldn't be surprised to find that MTR took (considerable) profits today.
I've bought some more this morning, as the price is still silly low.
I'm hearing SFR fundraise is many times over-subscribed.
I like the look of this. SFR SP has suffered due to doubts about the shelf life of Degrussa and the potential for it to be out of production before Motheo comes on line. That doubt has now been covered off. Shorts on SFR will now probably close. Short term impact on SFR SP not clear. But medium to long-term looks good.
Will MTR participate in the offer? They're already very exposed to SFR but the offer price looks good, so I expect they will.
All in all a good piece of news.
NOT MUCH MORE TO SAY
That was what Canaccord Genuiiy said in their "disappointing" but thorough research note.
Well, whoever is selling, as far as I'm concerned this is the gift that keeps on giving. GGP is IMHO seriously under-valued at the moment. So a chance to buy more while the summer sales are on.
This is how you make money on AIM. When the price is too low for the underlying value; and when people are wetting their pants and getting despondent. In coming weeks significant drill results from NCM plus PFS will see thee SP jump considerably. This opportunity won't last too many more weeks.
Interesting interview with Glencore's CEO on the potential deficits in commodity markets - including nickel - and by extension the need for more production and likely positive impacts on prices.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-06-22/glencore-ceo-glasenberg-on-the-new-commodity-economy-video
Hi Prof
I think you're referring to Canaccord's sensitivity analysis. Their calculation of NPV (net present value) is done with a 5% discount factor - i.e. estimated costs and income are discounted over time by a factor of 5% per annum
I think they're stating the obvious - that if you apply a different discount factor (more or less than 5%) you get a different NPV.
?
-InitialInvestment
A new, higher target price, no less. Anyone know what the new target price is?
I've just been offered 23.54p to sell (on a dummy sell) so under the radar I think this is gently rising.
Great thread Malva et al. Much better than the bickering nonsense.
Continuing - this time on a "PFS"
A Preliminary Feasibility Study (Pre-Feasibility Study) is a comprehensive study of a range of
options for the technical and economic viability of a mineral project that has advanced to a stage
where a preferred mining method, in the case of underground mining, or the pit configuration, in
the case of an open pit, is established and an effective method of mineral processing is determined.
It includes a financial analysis based on reasonable assumptions on the Modifying Factors and
the evaluation of any other relevant factors which are sufficient for a Competent Person, acting
reasonably, to determine if all or part of the Mineral Resources may be converted to an Ore
Reserve at the time of reporting. A Pre-Feasibility Study is at a lower confidence level than a
Feasibility Study.
This is why - until a PFS is published - you won't see much if any significant institutional investment in GGP. They want to see the results of a PFS first.
Now, we're in a pretty unusual position with GGP. We're not a stand-alone junior explorer hoping for investment and having to raise money through placings or other dilutive means before the publication of a PFS and then, subsequently a FS. That's what's so wonderful about the JV with Newcrest. They're doing all of the hard work, and spending most of the money. They also don't need to see the results of a PFS to convince themselves of the merits of investment!
Great stuff, as ever Bamps.
Do people understand the significance of an indicated resource estimate? In case not, here's the full story from JORC.
Late 2020 gave us the first inferred mineral resource estimate of what is in Havieron.
"An ‘Inferred Mineral Resource’ is that part of a Mineral Resource for which quantity and grade (or quality) are estimated on the basis of limited geological evidence and sampling. Geological evidence is sufficient to imply but not verify geological and grade (or quality) continuity. It is based on exploration, sampling and testing information gathered through appropriate techniques from locations such as outcrops, trenches, pits, workings and drill holes.
An Inferred Mineral Resource has a lower level of confidence than that applying to an Indicated
Mineral Resource and must not be converted to an Ore Reserve. It is reasonably expected that the
majority of Inferred Mineral Resources could be upgraded to Indicated Mineral Resources with
continued exploration."
"An ‘Indicated Mineral Resource’ is that part of a Mineral Resource for which quantity, grade (or
quality), densities, shape and physical characteristics are estimated with sufficient confidence
to allow the application of Modifying Factors in sufficient detail to support mine planning and
evaluation of the economic viability of the deposit.
Geological evidence is derived from adequately detailed and reliable exploration, sampling and
testing gathered through appropriate techniques from locations such as outcrops, trenches, pits,
workings and drill holes, and is sufficient to assume geological and grade (or quality) continuity
between points of observation where data and samples are gathered."
I've twice sold most of my GGP shares. The first time was when they reached 2.40p or thereabouts in 2017. Boy, I felt smart when the Newmont deal fell through - I'd ridden the wave from 0.30p to 2.40p, taking profits on the way up.
But with only a small remaining holding in GGP (£1k, for old times' sake) I didn't follow the share closely at all thereafter - until the shares started rapidly to appreciate in early 2020. I bought a lot and then quickly doubled my money before the shares plunged in March. I sold most then - not because I doubted my investment, but because I wanted to sell before the bottom and buy at a lower price. I mistimed it and lost quite a few shares as a result.
I then bought throughout the rest of 2020, but took some profits in December and January. Only a relatively small percentage of my holding. (Obviously, in hindsight I'd have sold many more and bought them all back today - or is it next month?)
Why am I saying all this? Well because there are some lessons here. Selling out at the top of the market is great. But it's not easy to then judge when best to buy back in. I'd have more GGP shares today if I'd not sold any in 2017, as I didn't get to buy back between 0.6p and 2.2p.
Selling out on the way down is good - but only if you sell well before the bottom. I'd have more GGP shares today if I'd not sold any in March 2020.
That's why, as the case for holding GGP shares is so strong; and the SP so low compared with the obvious value, I've no plans to sell any of my now record holding (for me, that is!)
It hasn't dropped today. It's only dropped in relation to last night's uncrossing trade, which was about 1p above the SP at yesterday's close.
Lots of talk today about manipulation. Some making a strong case; others refuting it. Who knows what's really going on behind the scenes.
But whatever the cause, the SP has fallen significantly - after 2020, in which it rose like a phoenix.
The GGP SP performance I think illustrates one of the main opportunities and threats of AIM. Unlike, the main market there is often a significant mismatch between the share price and the true underlying value of the share. Instead of (or in addition to) manipulation, MM games, etc, this is due to investor sentiment - often misjudged - driving the SP.
Sometimes (e.g. with GGP at 38p a couple of months ago) sentiment is too high and the SP driven arguably higher than it should be; sometimes (e.g. with GGP in late 2019 when the SP languished below 2p; and GGP now, I believe) sentiment is too low, which provides buyers with a real opportunity to make a high return.
Obviously, people who bought at 38p won't be ecstatic about that potential opportunity. But others will. And when sentiment returns the SP will respond accordingly.
There's been a lot of anger, conspiracy theorising, talk of MM manipulation on here of late. It's understandable, given the significant drop in the SP from highs of 38p in January. Of course, we'd all have sold all our stock in January and bought back now had we known. But who could have known? Personally, I topped sliced a little in January and have bought back quite a lot more in February and March. I'd feel a lot happier if the SP had already bounced back into the 30s. It hasn't, so I'm not as chipper as I was at Christmas.
It probably won't see a significant bounce for quite a while. It needs a significant piece of news for that ATM. But those of us who have done our own research and/or paid attention to the wonderful research by Bamps and others on here will know that, all other things being equal, the SP will bounce back strongly in 2021. But the major drivers of SP growth are probably a few months off.
So what should we do? Continuing to moan and groan may be cathartic for some but it won't help the SP. So if you've got a long-term perspective, see this period in the doldrums for what it is - a buying opportunity. How do you think fellow investors got such huge holdings in GGP? They bought - in 2018 and 2019 - when the SP was far too low for the potential value. Arguably, the SP got a little ahead of itself in December/January. But - if you're a long-term investor - now is a good time to buy again. (If you're interested in making 100% in a week you'll have taken your money elsewhere, as many short-termers have.) You're not going to get a 2000% return like you could have in 2019. But the risk-reward case is very strong here ATM.
So my advice is try to be calm. And if you're not over-invested in here already and have funds availably, buy some stock at 50% off prices.
He can't buy at the moment, as it's a closed period.
I sold some in the mid-30s. Not many - was mostly sitting on hands. But have bought more than treble what I sold over the past two weeks. If this was good for buying at e.g. 33p then, when nothing much has changed, it's hard to see why this isn't a strong buy now.
Not sure I count as a "well respected poster" but (to repeat a post I made many weeks ago) ...
GGP will have to release news on drilling results - positive or negative - if they are significant (i.e. they would be expected to lead to a significant movement in the SP) once they have received them. They cannot under AIM rules sit on such information and release such news when it suits them. Here's the relevant rule in full:
An AIM company must issue notification without delay of any new developments which
are not public knowledge which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a significant
movement in the price of its AIM securities. By way of example, this may include matters
concerning a change in:
— its financial condition;
— its sphere of activity;
— the performance of its business; or
— its expectation of its performance.
https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/aim-rules-for-companies-march-2018.pdf