The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
http://www.mining.com/mining-stocks-rally-copper-price-hits-7-month-high/
http://www.mining.com/mining-stocks-rally-copper-price-hits-7-month-high/
http://www.mining.com/mining-stocks-rally-copper-price-hits-7-month-high/
I was just going to make the same post, Forest.
On current trend. MOD's forthcoming DFS will be based on $3.00/lb - and from memory (round numbers) that would translate to over $300m NPV against its current $60m MCAP.
Yes, I remember the news story nonsense. I think we're agreeing in the main.
Apparently so. But no I haven't got the note.
"Berenberg Bank assumed coverage on shares of Asiamet Resources (LON:ARS) in a report issued on Monday morning. The firm issued a buy rating and a GBX 13 ($0.17) price objective on the stock.
Separately, Liberum Capital reaffirmed a buy rating on shares of Asiamet Resources in a report on Tuesday, January 15th."
Hi Crisp1n
Some really sound views there. I suppose I tend to agree with much of that. But there is an alternative - which is hard to assess:
- between late 2017 and late 2018 ARS traded in the 9p to 14p range
- its SP collapsed in late 2018
- the catalyst was the announcement of the delay to the BKM BFS
- but other factors were at work: copper price had fallen from $3.30/lb to $2.60/lb
- related to that was concern about Trump/China and world recession
Now in light of a successful BFS and with copper recovering strongly, why would ARS SP not rerate to where it was prior to the BFS delay and the copper scare?
Yes, Beutong is the long-term prize, but it always has been (was when ARS was at 14p).
Thanks, Keith. (Yes, it was Alex Borelli)
Like you I see lots of potential, so I'm buying, not selling ATM. But I've had a go at a SOTP valuation, being conservative, not hopeful. I've used Sandfire's rebutted offer of 38c per MOD share, half of the value others have ascribed to the JV; and no upside to any of MTR's non-MOD investments.
Have I got anything wrong here? Missed anything?
Rough MTR SOTP valuation
MOD/JV
£6.688m – c. 32 million MOD shares (after rights issue)
£8.500m – 40.7 million MOD options
£0.760m – Net smelter royalty from T3 deal (capped at $2 million – I’ve used $1 million)
£2.657m – JV valuation (which is difficult to value, of course#)
£18.606m – Total MOD/JV
# Edison research note of Dec 2018 values MOD share of JV at £12.4 million – I’ve used half of that and adjusted for MTR 30% share. Happy to hear better alternatives
Others
£0.836m – Kalahari Metals (simply the investment made so far by MTR)
£0.536m – Pan Asia Metals (based on 9.25c/sh most recent purchase)
£0.145m – Veta Resources (simply the investment made by MTR)
£0.775m – Thor Mining (73.8m shares @ 1.05p)
£0.253m – Greatland Gold (14.7m shares @ 1.72p)
£0.058m – Connemara Mining (4.87m shares @1.20p)
£2.603m – Total Others
Cash
£4.000m – Recent placing (less costs plus money in the bank – I’ve assumed one cancels out other)
£25.209m – Total (£18.606m plus £2.603m plus £4.000m)
Shares in issue after placing – 1.627 million
Based on rejected SFR offer and giving zero upside to its many other investments, that gives a SOTP valuation of 1.55p per share
I'm not here for short term return, so the SP today is not a huge concern to me. But I must say I find the weakness over the last few weeks odd.
Over the last month or so, MOD has had an offer for 38c per share, raising the MOD SP by 30-40%; MTR has raised at 1.45p; and copper has recovered from $2.60ish to $2.87. Yet the SP bid is at 1.15p.
Anyone like to help with a rationale? Is it simply sentiment? Is it manipulation (I've seen biggish sells hit the minute there's buying action)? If not, what?
I'll share my thoughts FWTW on MTR valuation in a bit.
That's the highest price since early July.
I agree that the substance of the RNS is good. At least as important I think is that ARS remains right on target for completing drilling, getting final assays and finishing the BFS by May.
With copper prices reaching a seven month high that can only be good for negotiations with potential investors/partners.
Certainly in the short term. Longer term, fundamentals point to appreciation.
Will 2019 Be the Year of King Copper?
http://www.usfunds.com/investor-library/investor-alert/will-2019-be-the-year-of-king-copper/#.XGgCBzP7TIW
And some more.
Will 2019 Be the Year of King Copper?
http://www.usfunds.com/investor-library/investor-alert/will-2019-be-the-year-of-king-copper/#.XGgCBzP7TIW
Yet more click bait - this time from the FT.
Morgan Stanley joins copper bulls with higher forecast for metal
Investment bank tallies with Citi and Goldman as it predicts rise in metal’s prices
https://www.ft.com/content/2e1ab4bc-2f7c-11e9-8744-e7016697f225
... is back over $2.80/lb
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/copper.php
... is back over $2.80/lb
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/copper.php
Yes, I've taken a step back but still can't see that ceiling. Maybe I'm thick.
But worth a read, I thought.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-02-14/Copper-To-Rise-More-Than-60-In-6-Years-Capital-Economics.html#.XGZYpkppOs4.twitter
Joebop
The point I was making was that in December 2016 MTR issued 100 million placing shares at 1.5p with 1 warrant for each of those shares exercisable at 2p. They all expired within 12 months so are no longer an issue. But contrary to the supposed existence of a ceiling, the SP happily pushed on to over 3p - i.e. flipping or no flipping, there was no 2p ceiling.
Casey
You can mouth about it all you like. Fact is there clearly isn't a ceiling at 2p as since the last issuing of warrants at 2p the MTR SP has spent most of the time above 2p and has twice breached 3p.
Sure, we'd all rather not have dilution; rather not have warrants issued; rather management could grow money on trees, rather than have to raise it. I'd vote for that, but it's not on offer.