The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
The last update on T3 mine I saw from MOD was in October 2018, when they said they expected to have the DFS released in March 2019.
Copper is still going up. Still no big deal but now at $2.69, up from $2.54 at the turn of the year.
The Arden research note sets out why it expects copper sustainably above $3. Who knows if they're right on that?
I see in its latest research note on copper, Arden Partners have rated MOD a buy with a valuation of 52p - a 259% return
Yes, ChinaBlue. Here, for others who've not seen it, is what ARCM tweeted.
"Analysing results from recently completed soil sampling programme
28,000 samples taken over entire Zamsort Licence using a 1km Line spacing with samples taken every 50m
65% analysis complete. Look forward to updating together with Aeromag Geophysical Survey results soon."
You may be right, Hallowed. Though it's not immediately obvious why a research note making a buy recommendation with a target price of nearly 100% more than today's price should cause the SP to fall. But as much of the fall since October has been out of step from the fundamentals (as the Sprott note implies) I guess anything is possible. Anyway, I shall be buying when I next get funds to do so next week.
Yes, we all get that MTR's target price is lower. We've all noticed that since the summer MOD's exploration success has been less than many hoped; and that copper prices have fallen - Sprott has noticed too, which is why its target is based on current copper prices, not those of six months ago.
Clearly, anyone would love to turn back the clock and sell in July, then buy back today. But based on today's view, Sprott's note makes three things clear:
- that the current price is a bargain
- the value MTR gets from its T3 deal with MOD
- the significant potential upside from exploration success - both from MOD and from KML.
And remember, the target of 2.3p is based on using 0.5 X NAV. So for example, it gives only £700,000 to MTR investments ($1.8m x 0.5), whereas MTR holds e.g. £1m in THR (even at today's year-low price) and £300k in GGP; and it gives relatively low value in its target to potential exploration success via MOD and KML, while discussing the potential "game-changing potential".
Potential investors - those looking to buy MTR for the first time, or to add to their holdings - will be considering the opportunity for growth from today's bargain prices (as e.g. Michael Joseph has told us he has in adding to his holding last week), not whether it might have been wrong to buy at 2.8p, as Sprott and many others did six months ago.
Nothing major, but copper price is gradually rising - it's up from 2.55 on 3 January to 2.65 today.
This is important, given MOD's DFS T3 coming, where the copper price will affect the value it gives to it.
You may be right. But if you and few others saw this last summer, why did MTR Chair, NEDs, major investors not, when they had access to the best information - including on MOD's plans for T3 mine? Were they all deluded?
So if it's so simple, and the sum of parts value so low, why won't MTR Chair, NEDs, Sprott,, others have done that and thought twice before buying?
And what value are you able to give to KML, to its recent Chilean gold investment, to its new investments in SE Asia and Australia?
Joebop has put forward some good arguments to support the thesis that MTR was overvalued last summer; that Bonker and others had too positive a view of its prospects; and that the subsequent fall in the SP is none too surprising.
It's hard to argue with much of that. He still holds MTRI believe; and judging from his last posts, is looking positively at the prospects for 2019, as am I.
But the difficulty I have trying to reconcile today's 3-year low SP with the above is the huge % drop that we have seen:
- only in late July MTR's chairmen spent £90,000 of his own money buying shares at 3p
- in August Sprott brought £2.6 million to the table at 2.8p; and was buying more on market at 2.4p in October
- other investors put £3.6 million more into MTR's August placing.
But MTR's SP has collapsed - falling from 3.25p to 1.15p, losing almost 2/3 of its value in five months. That sort of thing happens when a company announces really bad news; when the market crashes; when a short is opened; or there is some other form of manipulation like we saw with Beaufort Securities. Who knows which of these or other reasons have driven the SP decline?
Obviously, since July, the copper price has fallen; and MOD drilling results were first good in August, but nothing to shout about since. So we should have expected the SP to drift back into the 2s, perhaps as low as 2p. But what fundamentals can explain 1.15p? And if MTR really is in a fundamentally bad way, why did the Chairmen, who would have been able to foresee it better than others, have spent so much of his hard-earned money just before the decline? And why would Sprott, who will have done loads of due diligence, have bought so much at 2.8p a month later, and then more at 2.4p two months after that? And why would other HNW and institutional investors have also spent so much to buy shares at 2.8p?
It doesn't tally, so my money is on short-selling and/or dodgy manipulation driving some or much of the decline. Clearly, others may be privy to more than me. But it's how I see it today.
Nice to see more evidence based analysis from you, Costello.
Not highly significant but there's an interesting discussion on the LION board, with credible debate on the potential of a LION IPO at 3.5p or more in Q1 2019.
MTR holds 9 million warrants at 2.2p but they expire end Jan. Some potential that MTR will be invited to exercise the warrants, at a cost of £200,000, with the incentive of them turning a profit of over 50%.
Let's see if anything comes of this.
I think he must be pointing out what a well-timed purchase FunkyGibbon has made. I bought quite a few at 1.40p the last time this was shorted down two years ago and took some profits at 3p only three months later. Who knows if that'll happen this time but one thing's for sure - the SOTP valuation of MTR is more than 1.2p, so a great time to buy.
I agree. I'm pleased to say I topped up yesterday. Not expecting a big move on the back of this but am hopeful we have hit the bottom an will now drift back up until the DFS in 2019.
Who's paying you toto write this drivel?
Last placing was organised for 2.8p when the SP was 2.8p - it rose briefly on MOD suspending its shares for news on drilling.
MTR has over £3m in cash so absolutely no need to go for any fundraise until at least well into 2019.
Copper price is very relevant to our share price. MOD are working on a DFS of T3 mine. That will use the copper price early in 2019 as the basis for its assumptions of how much it can sell the copper it mines from T3. All increases in copper price will go straight to the profitability of the mine.
And as discussed earlier MTR has an effective 25% stake in those profits.
Hi Walter On the contrary, MTR has a significant vested interest in T3. Yes, it's now a 100% MOD project but the great thing about the deal to sell our interest is that we no longer contribute a penny to the development costs but now hold 12.5% of MOD shares with the opportunity in a year to effectively double that for free (either if MOD gets bought out or by MTR selling MOD then exercising its options). But yes you're right: only a small area of the original JV area was sold - so we retain 30% (more like 40% given our stake in MOD) in all other JV areas, including much land close to the T3 pit. Casey
I've taken a small investment here on today's news. I don't usually invest without doing fuller research but on the basis of what I've read today this looks highly promising. But I won't invest any more until I've done more research. Are there any key items of information a new investor here should look for, please?
Bonker
Read this for more on Chilean rock chips …
https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/40288/Veta-Resources-Announces-Highgrade-Au-and-Ag-from-Surface-Rock-Sampling-up-to-48.69-gt-Au-and-629-gt-Ag-Enters-Mining-Option-Agreement-Increases-Land-Position-and-Grants-Stock-Options